Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 22–24 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 18.4% | 16.9–20.1% | 16.5–20.5% | 16.2–20.9% | 15.5–21.7% | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 12.4% | 11.1–13.8% | 10.8–14.2% | 10.5–14.5% | 9.9–15.2% | 
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.5–12.0% | 9.1–12.3% | 8.9–12.7% | 8.4–13.3% | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 9.9% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.2–11.9% | 7.7–12.6% | 
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.4% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.1–11.7% | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 8.6% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.3–10.2% | 7.0–10.5% | 6.5–11.1% | 
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.9% | 6.0–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% | 
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% | 
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% | 
| DENK | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 27 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 18 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 15–23 | 
| GroenLinks | 14 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–19 | 
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 15 | 12–15 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 11–17 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 12 | 12–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–17 | 
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–9 | 
| 50Plus | 4 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 35% | 98.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 64% | |
| 26 | 12% | 62% | |
| 27 | 6% | 51% | Median | 
| 28 | 20% | 44% | |
| 29 | 8% | 24% | |
| 30 | 8% | 17% | |
| 31 | 5% | 9% | |
| 32 | 4% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.6% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 8% | 93% | |
| 17 | 3% | 85% | |
| 18 | 49% | 81% | Median | 
| 19 | 6% | 32% | |
| 20 | 19% | 26% | Last Result | 
| 21 | 7% | 7% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 98% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 10% | 95% | |
| 16 | 8% | 84% | |
| 17 | 41% | 76% | Median | 
| 18 | 23% | 35% | |
| 19 | 11% | 12% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | 
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 10% | 98.5% | |
| 14 | 5% | 88% | |
| 15 | 24% | 84% | |
| 16 | 51% | 59% | Median | 
| 17 | 6% | 8% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | 
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 20% | 97% | |
| 13 | 4% | 77% | |
| 14 | 20% | 73% | |
| 15 | 43% | 53% | Median | 
| 16 | 3% | 10% | |
| 17 | 7% | 7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 94% | |
| 12 | 51% | 92% | Median | 
| 13 | 19% | 40% | |
| 14 | 18% | 21% | |
| 15 | 2% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 13% | 92% | |
| 11 | 14% | 79% | |
| 12 | 51% | 65% | Median | 
| 13 | 12% | 14% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 1.5% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 15% | 93% | |
| 9 | 5% | 78% | Last Result | 
| 10 | 26% | 73% | Median | 
| 11 | 44% | 47% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | 
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 18% | 95% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 51% | 76% | Median | 
| 7 | 17% | 26% | |
| 8 | 8% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 8% | 91% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 69% | 84% | Median | 
| 7 | 12% | 14% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | 
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 99.8% | Last Result | 
| 5 | 27% | 93% | |
| 6 | 55% | 66% | Median | 
| 7 | 8% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | 
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 19% | 100% | |
| 3 | 16% | 81% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 48% | 65% | Median | 
| 5 | 15% | 16% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | 
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 78% | 88% | Last Result, Median | 
| 4 | 9% | 10% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 90 | 75 | 44% | 74–81 | 74–82 | 73–82 | 71–83 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 77 | 51% | 74–80 | 74–81 | 74–81 | 73–84 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 74 | 73 | 24% | 70–78 | 70–78 | 70–78 | 69–81 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 85 | 68 | 4% | 67–75 | 66–75 | 66–76 | 65–76 | 
| GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 80 | 71 | 0% | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–75 | 62–75 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 61 | 64 | 0% | 62–67 | 62–68 | 62–68 | 60–70 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 76 | 58 | 0% | 57–65 | 57–67 | 57–67 | 57–67 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus | 58 | 60 | 0% | 58–64 | 58–64 | 58–64 | 57–67 | 
| GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 66 | 61 | 0% | 57–62 | 56–63 | 54–63 | 52–64 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 72 | 57 | 0% | 54–62 | 54–63 | 54–63 | 54–66 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 59 | 0% | 56–61 | 56–62 | 56–62 | 54–64 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 71 | 52 | 0% | 51–59 | 51–60 | 51–60 | 50–60 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 54 | 55 | 0% | 52–58 | 52–58 | 52–58 | 50–61 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 50 | 0% | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 48 | 0% | 47–53 | 47–54 | 46–55 | 44–55 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 40 | 0% | 36–43 | 36–45 | 36–45 | 35–46 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 35 | 0% | 34–40 | 34–42 | 34–42 | 31–42 | 
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 47 | 38 | 0% | 34–38 | 33–39 | 33–40 | 31–41 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 33 | 29 | 0% | 27–30 | 27–30 | 25–30 | 23–32 | 
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 38 | 27 | 0% | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 22–31 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 28 | 23 | 0% | 21–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 74 | 37% | 97% | |
| 75 | 16% | 60% | |
| 76 | 2% | 44% | Majority | 
| 77 | 10% | 42% | Median | 
| 78 | 5% | 31% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 26% | |
| 80 | 6% | 26% | |
| 81 | 12% | 20% | |
| 82 | 6% | 8% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 35% | 99.2% | |
| 75 | 12% | 64% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 51% | Majority | 
| 77 | 9% | 51% | Last Result, Median | 
| 78 | 14% | 41% | |
| 79 | 10% | 27% | |
| 80 | 11% | 17% | |
| 81 | 3% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 36% | 99.4% | |
| 71 | 2% | 64% | |
| 72 | 11% | 62% | |
| 73 | 20% | 51% | Median | 
| 74 | 3% | 31% | Last Result | 
| 75 | 4% | 28% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 24% | Majority | 
| 77 | 11% | 23% | |
| 78 | 11% | 12% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 67 | 13% | 94% | |
| 68 | 43% | 81% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 38% | |
| 70 | 11% | 37% | Median | 
| 71 | 2% | 26% | |
| 72 | 3% | 24% | |
| 73 | 11% | 22% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 75 | 6% | 10% | |
| 76 | 4% | 4% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 2% | 95% | |
| 67 | 5% | 94% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 69 | 9% | 88% | |
| 70 | 13% | 79% | |
| 71 | 19% | 66% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 47% | Median | 
| 73 | 36% | 46% | |
| 74 | 2% | 11% | |
| 75 | 8% | 8% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.5% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 35% | 99.2% | |
| 63 | 10% | 64% | |
| 64 | 12% | 54% | |
| 65 | 12% | 42% | Median | 
| 66 | 18% | 30% | |
| 67 | 6% | 11% | |
| 68 | 4% | 6% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 47% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 10% | 53% | |
| 59 | 6% | 42% | |
| 60 | 3% | 37% | Median | 
| 61 | 3% | 34% | |
| 62 | 16% | 31% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 64 | 2% | 13% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 66 | 4% | 10% | |
| 67 | 6% | 6% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 36% | 99.4% | Last Result | 
| 59 | 5% | 63% | |
| 60 | 12% | 58% | |
| 61 | 14% | 46% | Median | 
| 62 | 5% | 32% | |
| 63 | 10% | 27% | |
| 64 | 15% | 17% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 56 | 3% | 96% | |
| 57 | 20% | 93% | |
| 58 | 4% | 73% | |
| 59 | 6% | 70% | |
| 60 | 8% | 63% | Median | 
| 61 | 40% | 55% | |
| 62 | 6% | 14% | |
| 63 | 8% | 9% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result | 
| 67 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 36% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 64% | |
| 56 | 12% | 63% | |
| 57 | 2% | 51% | Median | 
| 58 | 12% | 50% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 38% | |
| 60 | 17% | 37% | |
| 61 | 2% | 20% | |
| 62 | 9% | 18% | |
| 63 | 6% | 9% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 36% | 98.8% | |
| 57 | 4% | 63% | Last Result | 
| 58 | 2% | 59% | |
| 59 | 23% | 57% | Median | 
| 60 | 23% | 34% | |
| 61 | 3% | 11% | |
| 62 | 5% | 8% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 37% | 99.3% | |
| 52 | 16% | 62% | |
| 53 | 5% | 46% | |
| 54 | 14% | 40% | Median | 
| 55 | 5% | 26% | |
| 56 | 2% | 22% | |
| 57 | 6% | 20% | |
| 58 | 1.5% | 13% | |
| 59 | 5% | 12% | |
| 60 | 6% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 35% | 98% | |
| 53 | 4% | 63% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 59% | Last Result | 
| 55 | 15% | 58% | Median | 
| 56 | 11% | 43% | |
| 57 | 18% | 32% | |
| 58 | 13% | 15% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 46 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 48 | 10% | 94% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 50 | 55% | 84% | |
| 51 | 3% | 29% | |
| 52 | 4% | 26% | Median | 
| 53 | 2% | 22% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 21% | |
| 55 | 13% | 20% | |
| 56 | 7% | 7% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 47 | 35% | 97% | |
| 48 | 13% | 62% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 49% | Median | 
| 50 | 20% | 48% | |
| 51 | 9% | 28% | |
| 52 | 6% | 18% | |
| 53 | 7% | 13% | |
| 54 | 2% | 6% | |
| 55 | 4% | 4% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 35% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 64% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 63% | |
| 39 | 2% | 62% | Median | 
| 40 | 26% | 60% | |
| 41 | 14% | 34% | |
| 42 | 7% | 21% | |
| 43 | 7% | 14% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 45 | 5% | 6% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 34 | 12% | 98% | |
| 35 | 37% | 86% | |
| 36 | 5% | 49% | |
| 37 | 3% | 44% | Median | 
| 38 | 24% | 41% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 40 | 8% | 17% | |
| 41 | 2% | 9% | |
| 42 | 7% | 7% | Last Result | 
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | 
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 33 | 4% | 98% | |
| 34 | 17% | 94% | |
| 35 | 7% | 77% | |
| 36 | 11% | 70% | |
| 37 | 6% | 59% | Median | 
| 38 | 45% | 53% | |
| 39 | 5% | 9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 97% | |
| 27 | 16% | 95% | |
| 28 | 17% | 79% | Median | 
| 29 | 43% | 62% | |
| 30 | 16% | 19% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | 
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 19% | 97% | |
| 25 | 2% | 78% | |
| 26 | 8% | 77% | |
| 27 | 40% | 68% | Median | 
| 28 | 16% | 28% | |
| 29 | 3% | 12% | |
| 30 | 7% | 9% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 97% | |
| 21 | 14% | 95% | |
| 22 | 23% | 80% | Median | 
| 23 | 42% | 57% | |
| 24 | 12% | 15% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
 - Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
 - Fieldwork period: 22–24 February 2019
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1026
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 2.58%