Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 8–12 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 15.8% 14.8–16.9% 14.5–17.2% 14.3–17.4% 13.8–17.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–13.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 11.5% 10.6–12.4% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–12.9% 9.8–13.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.6% 8.8–10.5% 8.6–10.7% 8.4–10.9% 8.0–11.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.6% 8.8–10.5% 8.6–10.7% 8.4–10.9% 8.0–11.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.1% 6.1–8.3% 5.8–8.7%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.8% 6.1–7.6% 6.0–7.8% 5.8–8.0% 5.5–8.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.8–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%
50Plus 3.1% 3.8% 3.3–4.4% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.6% 3.1–4.2% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.3% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.1% 1.8–2.6% 1.7–2.7% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 25 23–26 23–27 22–28 21–28
GroenLinks 14 18 17–20 16–20 16–20 15–21
Forum voor Democratie 2 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 15–20
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 15 13–16 13–17 13–18 12–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Socialistische Partij 14 14 13–16 12–18 12–18 12–18
Democraten 66 19 11 10–12 9–12 8–12 8–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 9–12 9–12 8–12 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 8 7–10 6–10 6–10 6–11
50Plus 4 6 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 3–7
DENK 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 4% 99.3%  
23 21% 96%  
24 23% 75%  
25 21% 52% Median
26 22% 31%  
27 6% 8%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100% Last Result
15 0.5% 99.8%  
16 6% 99.3%  
17 28% 93%  
18 26% 65% Median
19 23% 39%  
20 15% 16%  
21 1.0% 1.2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 8% 99.7%  
16 14% 91%  
17 37% 78% Median
18 15% 40%  
19 20% 25%  
20 5% 5%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 13% 98%  
14 20% 85%  
15 45% 65% Median
16 13% 20%  
17 4% 7%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 17% 98%  
14 29% 80%  
15 27% 51% Median
16 23% 25%  
17 1.1% 1.3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 7% 99.9%  
13 14% 93%  
14 36% 79% Last Result, Median
15 26% 43%  
16 8% 17%  
17 1.3% 8%  
18 7% 7%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 4% 100%  
9 5% 96%  
10 31% 91%  
11 28% 60% Median
12 29% 32%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 3% 100%  
9 19% 97% Last Result
10 39% 78% Median
11 25% 39%  
12 13% 13%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 7% 100%  
7 16% 93%  
8 35% 77% Median
9 28% 42%  
10 13% 14%  
11 1.0% 1.0%  
12 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 10% 99.9% Last Result
5 33% 89%  
6 49% 56% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.0% 100%  
4 30% 99.0%  
5 48% 69% Last Result, Median
6 17% 21%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 68% 95% Last Result, Median
4 24% 27%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 32% 99.8%  
3 59% 68% Last Result, Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 76 65% 74–79 73–80 73–80 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 76 60% 74–79 74–80 73–80 72–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 27% 70–78 70–78 70–78 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 71 4% 68–75 68–75 68–76 67–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 68 0% 66–71 65–72 65–72 64–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 62–68 61–69 61–69 60–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 62 0% 59–66 59–66 58–66 57–66
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 59–65 59–65 59–65 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 56–62 56–63 55–63 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 58 0% 56–60 56–61 55–61 53–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 56 0% 53–60 53–60 53–60 52–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 54 0% 51–57 51–57 49–59 49–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 50 0% 48–52 47–53 47–54 46–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 49 0% 47–52 47–53 45–53 45–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 46 0% 43–48 42–49 42–50 41–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 39 0% 37–42 37–43 35–43 35–43
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 35 0% 33–38 33–38 32–38 32–39
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 35 0% 33–37 32–38 32–38 31–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 31–36 30–36 29–37 28–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–28 22–29
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–27 21–28

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.3% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 5% 99.5%  
74 6% 95%  
75 23% 88%  
76 20% 65% Median, Majority
77 10% 45%  
78 18% 35%  
79 9% 17%  
80 7% 8% Last Result
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 1.0% 99.8%  
73 1.5% 98.8%  
74 12% 97%  
75 26% 85%  
76 11% 60% Majority
77 22% 48% Median
78 11% 27%  
79 8% 16%  
80 7% 8%  
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.4% 0.4%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 10% 99.8%  
71 8% 89%  
72 4% 81%  
73 8% 77%  
74 20% 68%  
75 22% 48% Median
76 14% 27% Majority
77 2% 13% Last Result
78 10% 10%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 16% 99.2%  
69 7% 83%  
70 8% 77%  
71 25% 69%  
72 11% 44% Median
73 16% 33%  
74 7% 17% Last Result
75 7% 11%  
76 4% 4% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.4% 100%  
64 2% 99.6%  
65 4% 98%  
66 7% 94%  
67 24% 87%  
68 14% 63%  
69 17% 49% Median
70 9% 32%  
71 18% 23%  
72 5% 6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 1.5% 99.8%  
61 7% 98% Last Result
62 11% 92%  
63 15% 80%  
64 8% 65%  
65 11% 57%  
66 21% 46% Median
67 8% 25%  
68 10% 17%  
69 6% 7%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 1.4% 99.9%  
58 2% 98.5% Last Result
59 10% 97%  
60 25% 86%  
61 4% 61%  
62 10% 57%  
63 15% 48% Median
64 16% 33%  
65 3% 17%  
66 13% 14%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.8%  
59 8% 98%  
60 10% 89%  
61 20% 80%  
62 20% 60% Median
63 16% 40%  
64 12% 24%  
65 11% 12%  
66 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
67 0.6% 0.6%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 3% 99.8%  
56 17% 97%  
57 7% 80% Last Result
58 10% 73%  
59 11% 64%  
60 11% 53% Median
61 23% 42%  
62 12% 19%  
63 7% 7%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.9%  
54 1.3% 99.4%  
55 3% 98%  
56 12% 95%  
57 14% 83%  
58 21% 69%  
59 21% 47% Median
60 20% 26%  
61 5% 6%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.5% 99.8%  
53 11% 99.3%  
54 14% 89% Last Result
55 10% 74%  
56 14% 64%  
57 8% 50% Median
58 18% 42%  
59 8% 24%  
60 16% 16%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 3% 100%  
50 0.9% 97%  
51 9% 96%  
52 10% 87%  
53 15% 77%  
54 31% 62%  
55 5% 31% Median
56 11% 25%  
57 11% 14%  
58 0.2% 4%  
59 4% 4%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.7%  
47 7% 99.1%  
48 10% 92%  
49 32% 82%  
50 10% 50%  
51 15% 40% Median
52 17% 25%  
53 3% 7%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.8% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 4% 99.8%  
46 0.9% 96%  
47 12% 95%  
48 24% 84%  
49 13% 60%  
50 6% 46% Median
51 23% 40%  
52 11% 18%  
53 6% 6%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.8% 99.9%  
42 7% 99.1%  
43 3% 92%  
44 10% 89%  
45 29% 79%  
46 18% 50% Median
47 15% 33%  
48 11% 18%  
49 3% 7%  
50 4% 4%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 4% 99.9%  
36 1.1% 96%  
37 15% 95%  
38 22% 80%  
39 18% 58%  
40 9% 40% Median
41 17% 30%  
42 8% 14%  
43 6% 6%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 4% 99.7%  
33 6% 96%  
34 6% 89%  
35 36% 83%  
36 20% 48% Median
37 10% 28%  
38 16% 17%  
39 0.7% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.9%  
32 8% 98.9%  
33 19% 91%  
34 8% 72%  
35 20% 64% Median
36 31% 44%  
37 6% 13%  
38 7% 7%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.7% 100%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 3% 97%  
31 11% 94%  
32 19% 84%  
33 29% 64% Last Result, Median
34 16% 36%  
35 9% 19%  
36 6% 11%  
37 4% 4%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 1.0% 100%  
23 7% 99.0%  
24 18% 92%  
25 25% 74%  
26 29% 49% Median
27 17% 19%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.3% 0.6%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 1.0% 100%  
22 2% 99.0%  
23 13% 97%  
24 23% 84%  
25 35% 61% Median
26 13% 26%  
27 12% 13%  
28 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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