Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 21 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 17.1% | 15.7–18.7% | 15.2–19.2% | 14.9–19.6% | 14.2–20.4% | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 11.4% | 10.2–12.8% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.6–13.5% | 9.0–14.2% | 
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.8% | 
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.7–10.2% | 6.3–10.8% | 
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% | 
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% | 
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% | 
| DENK | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 27 | 24–29 | 22–29 | 21–30 | 21–31 | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 20 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 
| GroenLinks | 14 | 14 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–19 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 13 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 10–18 | 
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 14 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 8–17 | 
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 10 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 6 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 
| 50Plus | 4 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 | 
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 96% | |
| 23 | 3% | 94% | |
| 24 | 18% | 91% | |
| 25 | 7% | 73% | |
| 26 | 16% | 66% | |
| 27 | 3% | 50% | Median | 
| 28 | 11% | 47% | |
| 29 | 31% | 36% | |
| 30 | 3% | 5% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 7% | 96% | |
| 18 | 18% | 89% | |
| 19 | 14% | 72% | |
| 20 | 42% | 58% | Last Result, Median | 
| 21 | 10% | 16% | |
| 22 | 4% | 6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | 
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 10% | 97% | |
| 16 | 4% | 87% | |
| 17 | 50% | 83% | Median | 
| 18 | 21% | 33% | |
| 19 | 6% | 12% | |
| 20 | 3% | 5% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 20% | 98% | |
| 13 | 13% | 79% | |
| 14 | 42% | 65% | Last Result, Median | 
| 15 | 11% | 23% | |
| 16 | 4% | 12% | |
| 17 | 6% | 8% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 12 | 39% | 98% | |
| 13 | 12% | 58% | Median | 
| 14 | 16% | 47% | |
| 15 | 8% | 30% | |
| 16 | 13% | 22% | |
| 17 | 9% | 9% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result | 
| 20 | 0% | 0% | 
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98% | |
| 11 | 6% | 93% | |
| 12 | 21% | 88% | |
| 13 | 5% | 67% | |
| 14 | 22% | 62% | Median | 
| 15 | 36% | 40% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 7% | 91% | |
| 10 | 60% | 84% | Median | 
| 11 | 8% | 24% | |
| 12 | 7% | 16% | |
| 13 | 4% | 9% | |
| 14 | 5% | 5% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 10% | 98% | |
| 8 | 12% | 89% | |
| 9 | 22% | 77% | Last Result | 
| 10 | 35% | 55% | Median | 
| 11 | 14% | 20% | |
| 12 | 6% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 34% | 99.3% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 23% | 65% | Median | 
| 7 | 16% | 42% | |
| 8 | 6% | 26% | |
| 9 | 20% | 20% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | 
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 41% | 98% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 11% | 57% | Median | 
| 7 | 19% | 46% | |
| 8 | 20% | 27% | |
| 9 | 7% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | 
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.5% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 5 | 12% | 98.5% | |
| 6 | 28% | 87% | |
| 7 | 50% | 58% | Median | 
| 8 | 6% | 8% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | 
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 18% | 98% | |
| 3 | 62% | 80% | Last Result, Median | 
| 4 | 8% | 18% | |
| 5 | 8% | 10% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | 
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 36% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 47% | 64% | Last Result, Median | 
| 4 | 14% | 17% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 80 | 96% | 77–83 | 76–83 | 75–84 | 73–87 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 74 | 77 | 76% | 74–78 | 73–80 | 72–81 | 70–85 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 90 | 75 | 13% | 71–76 | 70–77 | 69–78 | 68–81 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 85 | 71 | 0.2% | 66–74 | 64–74 | 63–74 | 61–75 | 
| GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 80 | 66 | 0% | 65–72 | 64–72 | 63–73 | 60–74 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 61 | 68 | 0.2% | 63–70 | 63–70 | 62–72 | 60–74 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus | 58 | 65 | 0% | 61–66 | 60–67 | 59–69 | 58–71 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 61 | 0% | 58–64 | 57–64 | 56–65 | 53–67 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 76 | 61 | 0% | 57–63 | 55–63 | 54–63 | 53–65 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 72 | 60 | 0% | 57–62 | 55–62 | 54–63 | 52–68 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 54 | 58 | 0% | 55–59 | 54–60 | 53–63 | 51–64 | 
| GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 66 | 56 | 0% | 54–61 | 53–62 | 51–62 | 51–65 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 71 | 54 | 0% | 50–56 | 49–56 | 47–58 | 46–59 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 51 | 0% | 45–52 | 45–52 | 44–54 | 43–56 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 49 | 0% | 45–54 | 43–54 | 43–54 | 41–54 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 41 | 0% | 38–42 | 37–44 | 35–45 | 34–46 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 47 | 37 | 0% | 33–40 | 32–42 | 31–42 | 30–42 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 36 | 0% | 31–39 | 31–40 | 30–40 | 30–41 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 33 | 28 | 0% | 27–33 | 27–36 | 26–36 | 25–36 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 38 | 27 | 0% | 24–31 | 24–31 | 23–31 | 21–32 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 28 | 22 | 0% | 21–26 | 20–28 | 19–28 | 18–28 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 3% | 96% | Majority | 
| 77 | 5% | 93% | Last Result | 
| 78 | 12% | 87% | |
| 79 | 20% | 75% | |
| 80 | 8% | 55% | Median | 
| 81 | 32% | 47% | |
| 82 | 2% | 16% | |
| 83 | 9% | 14% | |
| 84 | 2% | 5% | |
| 85 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98% | |
| 73 | 3% | 96% | |
| 74 | 6% | 93% | Last Result | 
| 75 | 11% | 87% | |
| 76 | 13% | 76% | Majority | 
| 77 | 18% | 63% | Median | 
| 78 | 37% | 45% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 80 | 3% | 7% | |
| 81 | 3% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 4% | 96% | |
| 71 | 4% | 92% | |
| 72 | 17% | 89% | |
| 73 | 7% | 72% | |
| 74 | 5% | 64% | Median | 
| 75 | 47% | 60% | |
| 76 | 4% | 13% | Majority | 
| 77 | 5% | 9% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 64 | 4% | 96% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 66 | 11% | 91% | |
| 67 | 5% | 80% | |
| 68 | 5% | 75% | |
| 69 | 13% | 70% | |
| 70 | 4% | 57% | Median | 
| 71 | 35% | 54% | |
| 72 | 6% | 18% | |
| 73 | 2% | 12% | |
| 74 | 10% | 11% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 19% | 94% | |
| 66 | 34% | 75% | |
| 67 | 15% | 41% | Median | 
| 68 | 2% | 26% | |
| 69 | 3% | 24% | |
| 70 | 3% | 22% | |
| 71 | 1.2% | 19% | |
| 72 | 14% | 17% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 99.5% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 63 | 8% | 97% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 65 | 17% | 88% | |
| 66 | 4% | 71% | |
| 67 | 12% | 67% | Median | 
| 68 | 37% | 55% | |
| 69 | 7% | 18% | |
| 70 | 8% | 11% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 74 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.6% | Last Result | 
| 59 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 6% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 92% | |
| 62 | 10% | 87% | |
| 63 | 13% | 77% | |
| 64 | 12% | 64% | Median | 
| 65 | 40% | 52% | |
| 66 | 7% | 12% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 96% | Last Result | 
| 58 | 18% | 92% | |
| 59 | 4% | 74% | |
| 60 | 3% | 69% | Median | 
| 61 | 43% | 66% | |
| 62 | 8% | 23% | |
| 63 | 3% | 15% | |
| 64 | 8% | 11% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 67 | 2% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 55 | 4% | 97% | |
| 56 | 2% | 93% | |
| 57 | 3% | 91% | |
| 58 | 3% | 88% | |
| 59 | 18% | 85% | |
| 60 | 13% | 67% | Median | 
| 61 | 34% | 54% | |
| 62 | 6% | 20% | |
| 63 | 12% | 14% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 55 | 4% | 97% | |
| 56 | 2% | 93% | |
| 57 | 8% | 92% | |
| 58 | 7% | 84% | |
| 59 | 23% | 78% | |
| 60 | 7% | 55% | Median | 
| 61 | 37% | 48% | |
| 62 | 8% | 10% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | Last Result | 
| 55 | 12% | 93% | |
| 56 | 13% | 80% | |
| 57 | 4% | 68% | Median | 
| 58 | 41% | 63% | |
| 59 | 13% | 22% | |
| 60 | 5% | 9% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 53 | 4% | 96% | |
| 54 | 3% | 93% | |
| 55 | 20% | 90% | |
| 56 | 33% | 69% | |
| 57 | 4% | 36% | Median | 
| 58 | 4% | 32% | |
| 59 | 10% | 28% | |
| 60 | 3% | 18% | |
| 61 | 5% | 14% | |
| 62 | 8% | 10% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 49 | 2% | 96% | |
| 50 | 8% | 94% | |
| 51 | 2% | 87% | |
| 52 | 19% | 85% | |
| 53 | 6% | 66% | |
| 54 | 13% | 60% | Median | 
| 55 | 11% | 47% | |
| 56 | 32% | 36% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 9% | 97% | |
| 46 | 6% | 88% | |
| 47 | 7% | 82% | |
| 48 | 6% | 76% | |
| 49 | 4% | 69% | |
| 50 | 8% | 65% | Median | 
| 51 | 38% | 58% | |
| 52 | 15% | 20% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 56 | 2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 44 | 2% | 94% | |
| 45 | 14% | 92% | |
| 46 | 3% | 78% | |
| 47 | 11% | 75% | |
| 48 | 3% | 65% | |
| 49 | 14% | 61% | |
| 50 | 6% | 47% | |
| 51 | 2% | 41% | Median | 
| 52 | 6% | 39% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 33% | |
| 54 | 31% | 32% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 2% | 97% | |
| 37 | 5% | 96% | |
| 38 | 13% | 91% | |
| 39 | 8% | 78% | |
| 40 | 12% | 70% | Median | 
| 41 | 42% | 58% | |
| 42 | 8% | 15% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 32 | 3% | 97% | |
| 33 | 6% | 94% | |
| 34 | 7% | 88% | |
| 35 | 10% | 82% | |
| 36 | 10% | 71% | |
| 37 | 41% | 62% | Median | 
| 38 | 4% | 21% | |
| 39 | 4% | 17% | |
| 40 | 4% | 13% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 42 | 9% | 9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 10% | 96% | |
| 32 | 3% | 86% | |
| 33 | 5% | 83% | |
| 34 | 6% | 78% | |
| 35 | 19% | 72% | |
| 36 | 5% | 53% | |
| 37 | 7% | 48% | Median | 
| 38 | 2% | 41% | |
| 39 | 31% | 39% | |
| 40 | 5% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result | 
| 43 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 34% | 95% | |
| 28 | 12% | 61% | |
| 29 | 4% | 49% | Median | 
| 30 | 8% | 45% | |
| 31 | 13% | 37% | |
| 32 | 12% | 23% | |
| 33 | 2% | 11% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 36 | 8% | 8% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 24 | 12% | 97% | |
| 25 | 9% | 85% | |
| 26 | 3% | 77% | |
| 27 | 34% | 74% | Median | 
| 28 | 23% | 40% | |
| 29 | 2% | 17% | |
| 30 | 2% | 15% | |
| 31 | 12% | 13% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 20 | 2% | 97% | |
| 21 | 12% | 95% | |
| 22 | 38% | 83% | |
| 23 | 9% | 45% | Median | 
| 24 | 11% | 35% | |
| 25 | 12% | 24% | |
| 26 | 4% | 13% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 28 | 8% | 8% | Last Result | 
| 29 | 0% | 0% | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
 - Commissioner(s): —
 - Fieldwork period: 21 March 2019
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 2.94%