Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 25–31 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 15.3% 14.5–16.2% 14.3–16.5% 14.1–16.7% 13.7–17.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie 2 27 26–29 26–29 26–30 25–31
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 24 23–25 22–25 22–25 21–26
GroenLinks 14 18 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–15 13–15 12–16 12–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–15
Democraten 66 19 11 11–12 10–13 10–13 9–13
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 8 8–9 8–10 8–10 7–10
Socialistische Partij 14 9 9 8–10 8–10 7–11
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–10
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
50Plus 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 2% 100%  
26 24% 98%  
27 36% 73% Median
28 23% 37%  
29 10% 14%  
30 2% 4%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.9%  
22 7% 98%  
23 10% 91%  
24 60% 82% Median
25 21% 22%  
26 0.8% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 8% 98%  
18 41% 90% Median
19 45% 48%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 5% 99.9%  
13 28% 95%  
14 53% 68% Median
15 11% 14%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 48% 98%  
13 16% 50% Median
14 29% 34%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 3% 98%  
11 56% 94% Median
12 33% 39%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 60% 99.4% Median
9 35% 40%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 5% 99.5%  
9 88% 95% Median
10 7% 7%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 2% 100%  
7 30% 98%  
8 34% 68% Median
9 15% 35%  
10 20% 20%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100% Last Result
6 50% 99.4% Median
7 34% 50%  
8 15% 16%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 20% 99.9%  
4 55% 80% Last Result, Median
5 24% 24%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 28% 99.8% Last Result
4 70% 72% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 64% 100% Median
2 36% 36%  
3 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 34% 74–76 74–77 73–78 72–79
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 73 6% 72–75 72–76 72–77 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 74 6% 73–75 72–76 71–77 70–77
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 0.9% 71–74 71–75 70–75 67–77
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 70 0.2% 69–72 69–73 68–73 67–74
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 69 0% 68–71 67–71 66–72 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 68 0% 67–70 67–71 67–71 65–73
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 65–68 65–69 64–69 63–70
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 65 0% 63–67 63–68 62–68 61–69
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 62–65 62–66 60–66 59–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 56 0% 55–57 54–58 53–59 52–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 50 0% 49–53 49–53 49–53 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 49 0% 48–50 46–51 46–51 45–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 48 0% 47–50 47–50 45–50 45–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 46 0% 45–47 45–48 45–48 43–49
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 38 0% 37–40 37–41 36–41 34–42
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 38 0% 37–39 36–39 35–40 35–41
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 36 0% 36–39 35–39 34–39 33–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 31–35 31–36 31–36 31–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 25–28 25–29 25–29 24–30
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 25 0% 25–27 23–27 23–28 21–29

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 1.2% 99.9%  
73 2% 98.7%  
74 55% 96% Median
75 7% 41%  
76 25% 34% Majority
77 6% 9% Last Result
78 0.9% 3%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0% 0.3%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 1.2% 100%  
71 0.6% 98.8%  
72 27% 98%  
73 31% 71% Median
74 9% 40% Last Result
75 25% 31%  
76 3% 6% Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 2% 99.8%  
71 3% 98%  
72 3% 95%  
73 8% 92% Median
74 50% 84%  
75 28% 34%  
76 0.7% 6% Majority
77 5% 5%  
78 0.1% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.3%  
80 0.3% 0.3%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.6% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.4%  
69 2% 99.3%  
70 2% 98%  
71 45% 96% Median
72 6% 51%  
73 34% 45%  
74 3% 11%  
75 7% 8%  
76 0.2% 0.9% Majority
77 0.7% 0.7%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 2% 99.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 14% 96%  
70 51% 83% Median
71 6% 32%  
72 20% 26%  
73 4% 6%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 1.2% 100%  
66 2% 98.8%  
67 2% 97%  
68 37% 95%  
69 31% 58% Median
70 3% 28%  
71 21% 25%  
72 3% 4%  
73 1.3% 1.5%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 2% 99.5%  
67 28% 98%  
68 25% 69% Median
69 3% 44%  
70 34% 41%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.6% 0.9%  
74 0% 0.3%  
75 0.3% 0.3%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 1.2% 100%  
64 2% 98.8%  
65 26% 96%  
66 32% 70% Median
67 13% 38%  
68 19% 26%  
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 1.1% 100%  
62 2% 98.9%  
63 25% 97%  
64 4% 72%  
65 35% 69% Median
66 9% 34%  
67 20% 25%  
68 4% 5%  
69 1.4% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.9% 100%  
60 2% 99.1%  
61 2% 97%  
62 47% 95% Median
63 4% 48%  
64 30% 43%  
65 6% 14%  
66 7% 8% Last Result
67 0.2% 0.9%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 2% 99.7%  
53 3% 98%  
54 5% 95%  
55 27% 90% Median
56 45% 63%  
57 12% 18%  
58 0.8% 6%  
59 4% 5%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.4% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.6%  
48 0.5% 99.3%  
49 25% 98.8%  
50 30% 73%  
51 18% 44% Median
52 4% 25%  
53 20% 21%  
54 0.2% 0.6%  
55 0.4% 0.4%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 5% 99.5%  
47 3% 95%  
48 5% 92%  
49 60% 87% Median
50 22% 27%  
51 3% 6%  
52 0.2% 2%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.5%  
46 1.5% 97%  
47 24% 96%  
48 44% 72% Median
49 4% 28%  
50 23% 24%  
51 0.7% 0.7%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 2% 100%  
44 0.7% 98%  
45 11% 98%  
46 58% 87% Median
47 24% 29%  
48 4% 5%  
49 1.5% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.5% 100%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 2% 98%  
37 44% 96%  
38 17% 52% Median
39 22% 35%  
40 4% 13%  
41 7% 9%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 4% 99.8%  
36 3% 96%  
37 33% 93%  
38 37% 60% Median
39 20% 23%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.6% 0.6%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.4%  
35 3% 97%  
36 52% 94%  
37 15% 42% Median
38 6% 27%  
39 20% 21%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 24% 99.7%  
32 2% 76%  
33 24% 74% Last Result, Median
34 27% 50%  
35 15% 22%  
36 5% 8%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.9% 100%  
25 24% 99.0%  
26 24% 75%  
27 18% 51% Median
28 25% 33% Last Result
29 6% 8%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 1.4% 100%  
22 0.2% 98.6%  
23 4% 98%  
24 4% 94%  
25 75% 91% Median
26 3% 16%  
27 7% 12%  
28 3% 5%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

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Opinion Poll

Calculations