Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 29 April–5 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 15.3% 14.5–16.2% 14.3–16.5% 14.1–16.7% 13.7–17.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie 2 27 26–29 25–30 25–30 25–31
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 24 22–25 22–26 22–26 21–26
GroenLinks 14 18 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–17
Democraten 66 19 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–13
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
50Plus 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 6% 99.9%  
26 9% 94%  
27 48% 85% Median
28 18% 37%  
29 11% 19%  
30 8% 9%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 9% 98%  
23 38% 89%  
24 16% 51% Median
25 29% 35%  
26 6% 6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100% Last Result
15 1.3% 99.9%  
16 30% 98.6%  
17 13% 68%  
18 37% 55% Median
19 13% 18%  
20 5% 5%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 4% 100%  
13 47% 96% Median
14 22% 48%  
15 20% 27%  
16 7% 7%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 49% 98% Median
14 8% 49%  
15 38% 40%  
16 1.3% 2%  
17 1.2% 1.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.7%  
10 13% 98.5%  
11 65% 86% Median
12 12% 21%  
13 9% 9%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 5% 100%  
8 25% 95%  
9 60% 70% Median
10 9% 10%  
11 1.1% 1.2%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 17% 98%  
9 61% 81% Median
10 16% 20%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.8% 100%  
7 43% 99.2%  
8 29% 57% Median
9 27% 27%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 7% 100% Last Result
6 17% 93%  
7 28% 75% Median
8 47% 48%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 21% 100%  
4 76% 79% Last Result, Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 38% 99.9% Last Result
4 58% 62% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 54% 100% Median
2 44% 46%  
3 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 32% 74–77 73–78 73–79 72–81
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 74 6% 72–75 71–76 71–77 71–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 74 1.4% 71–75 70–75 70–75 68–76
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 2% 71–74 70–75 69–75 68–76
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 70 0% 69–72 68–73 68–73 66–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 70 0% 67–72 67–72 67–72 66–73
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 69 0% 68–71 67–71 67–71 65–74
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 65–68 65–69 64–69 62–71
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 65 0% 64–67 63–67 63–67 61–70
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 62–66 61–66 60–66 59–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 56 0% 53–57 53–58 53–58 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 51 0% 49–53 49–55 49–55 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 49 0% 47–50 46–52 46–53 45–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 49 0% 47–52 46–52 46–52 45–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 47 0% 44–48 44–49 44–49 43–52
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 39 0% 37–42 37–43 36–43 36–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 36–39 36–40 35–41 35–41
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 38 0% 36–39 36–40 35–40 35–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 33–36 33–37 32–37 32–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 26–30 26–30 25–30 25–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 24 0% 24–27 23–28 22–29 22–29

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 2% 99.9%  
73 4% 98%  
74 18% 94% Median
75 44% 76%  
76 19% 32% Majority
77 8% 13% Last Result
78 3% 6%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.4% 1.1%  
81 0.7% 0.7%  
82 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 6% 99.9%  
72 9% 94%  
73 13% 85% Median
74 58% 72% Last Result
75 8% 14%  
76 3% 6% Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 0.6% 1.3%  
79 0% 0.7%  
80 0.6% 0.6%  
81 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 2% 100%  
69 0.6% 98%  
70 4% 98%  
71 11% 94%  
72 14% 83%  
73 17% 69% Median
74 18% 52%  
75 32% 34%  
76 1.0% 1.4% Majority
77 0.4% 0.4%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.3% 100%  
68 2% 99.7%  
69 1.0% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 7% 94% Median
72 48% 87%  
73 19% 39%  
74 11% 20%  
75 7% 9%  
76 2% 2% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.9% 100%  
67 0.5% 99.1%  
68 4% 98.6%  
69 14% 95% Median
70 46% 81%  
71 22% 34%  
72 7% 13%  
73 4% 6%  
74 0.2% 2%  
75 1.3% 1.3%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.3% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.6%  
67 9% 98%  
68 14% 89% Median
69 3% 75%  
70 46% 72%  
71 12% 25%  
72 12% 14%  
73 1.4% 2%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 1.0% 99.9%  
66 1.5% 99.0%  
67 7% 98%  
68 22% 90% Median
69 56% 68%  
70 2% 13%  
71 9% 11%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.1%  
74 0.7% 0.7%  
75 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.9% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.1%  
64 2% 98.8%  
65 11% 97% Median
66 48% 86%  
67 20% 38%  
68 12% 18%  
69 5% 6%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 1.3% 1.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 1.0% 100%  
62 1.0% 99.0%  
63 6% 98%  
64 18% 92% Median
65 53% 74%  
66 10% 21%  
67 9% 11%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.7% 1.3%  
70 0.7% 0.7%  
71 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 2% 99.7%  
60 0.4% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 10% 94% Median
63 52% 84%  
64 10% 31%  
65 7% 22%  
66 13% 14% Last Result
67 0.2% 1.4%  
68 1.1% 1.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.6% 100%  
52 1.4% 99.3%  
53 11% 98%  
54 8% 87%  
55 16% 79% Median
56 13% 63%  
57 42% 50%  
58 7% 8%  
59 1.2% 1.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 11% 99.3%  
50 3% 88% Median
51 50% 85%  
52 8% 34%  
53 19% 26%  
54 1.1% 7%  
55 5% 6%  
56 0.9% 0.9%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.9% 99.7%  
46 6% 98.8%  
47 17% 93%  
48 9% 76% Median
49 41% 67%  
50 16% 26%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 6%  
53 4% 4%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 1.3% 99.9%  
46 7% 98.6%  
47 19% 92%  
48 9% 73% Median
49 43% 63%  
50 9% 20%  
51 1.2% 11%  
52 9% 10%  
53 0.7% 0.7%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.9%  
44 13% 99.4%  
45 20% 87%  
46 12% 67% Median
47 39% 54%  
48 9% 15%  
49 5% 7%  
50 0.4% 1.5%  
51 0.4% 1.1%  
52 0.6% 0.6%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 3% 99.7%  
37 37% 97% Median
38 8% 60%  
39 19% 52%  
40 11% 33%  
41 9% 22%  
42 6% 13%  
43 6% 6%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.4% 100%  
35 4% 99.6%  
36 21% 95%  
37 9% 75% Median
38 46% 66%  
39 13% 20%  
40 2% 7%  
41 5% 5%  
42 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 3% 99.6%  
36 23% 97%  
37 10% 74% Median
38 50% 64%  
39 7% 14%  
40 5% 6%  
41 0.4% 1.1%  
42 0.7% 0.7%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 4% 99.9%  
33 6% 96% Last Result, Median
34 38% 90%  
35 13% 52%  
36 34% 39%  
37 4% 5%  
38 0.5% 1.0%  
39 0.5% 0.5%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 3% 100%  
26 33% 97% Median
27 10% 64%  
28 21% 55% Last Result
29 17% 34%  
30 15% 16%  
31 0.8% 1.2%  
32 0.4% 0.4%  
33 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 4% 100%  
23 4% 96%  
24 44% 92% Median
25 18% 48%  
26 18% 31%  
27 7% 13%  
28 1.3% 6%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations