Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 6–12 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 17.3% 16.5–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.2%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.0% 15.2–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie 2 26 25–27 24–27 24–27 24–29
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 25 23–25 23–26 23–26 23–27
GroenLinks 14 15 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 14–17 14–17 14–17 14–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 16 14–16 14–16 14–16 14–17
Democraten 66 19 11 11–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 9 9–10 9–10 8–10 7–11
Socialistische Partij 14 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 8 8 7–8 6–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
50Plus 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 6% 100%  
25 24% 94%  
26 44% 70% Median
27 24% 26%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.7%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 16% 99.8%  
24 32% 84%  
25 46% 51% Median
26 4% 5%  
27 0.9% 0.9%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.2% 100% Last Result
15 62% 98.8% Median
16 27% 37%  
17 9% 10%  
18 0.7% 1.1%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 18% 99.7%  
15 5% 82%  
16 54% 77% Median
17 22% 23%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 23% 99.7%  
15 5% 76%  
16 70% 71% Median
17 0.8% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 7% 99.2%  
11 55% 93% Median
12 37% 38%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 4% 99.3%  
9 78% 95% Median
10 16% 17%  
11 0.9% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 42% 99.4%  
8 56% 58% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 2% 100%  
7 2% 98%  
8 94% 96% Median
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100% Last Result
6 56% 99.8% Median
7 42% 44%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 26% 100%  
4 63% 74% Last Result, Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 3% 99.8% Last Result
4 80% 97% Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 84% 74–79 74–79 74–79 74–80
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 76 67% 72–77 72–77 72–77 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 73 2% 72–75 72–75 72–75 70–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 74 0.4% 72–74 72–74 72–75 70–75
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 0.3% 71–74 71–74 71–74 70–75
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 73 0.2% 70–73 69–73 69–73 69–74
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 71 0% 68–71 67–71 67–71 67–73
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 69 0% 65–70 65–70 65–70 65–71
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 67 0% 63–68 63–68 63–68 63–69
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 64–66 64–66 63–66 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 58 0% 56–60 56–60 56–60 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 54–57 54–57 54–57 53–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 51 0% 50–52 50–52 50–53 48–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 52 0% 49–53 49–53 49–53 48–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 50 0% 47–50 47–50 47–50 46–51
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 43 0% 41–44 40–44 40–44 39–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 38–41 38–41 38–42 38–42
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 38–41 38–41 38–41 37–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 38 0% 37–38 37–38 36–38 35–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 32 0% 30–32 30–32 29–32 28–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–29 24–29

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 15% 99.9%  
75 1.2% 85%  
76 15% 84% Majority
77 5% 68% Last Result
78 42% 64% Median
79 21% 22%  
80 0.5% 0.7%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 15% 100%  
73 0.6% 85%  
74 15% 84% Last Result
75 2% 69%  
76 44% 67% Median, Majority
77 22% 23%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.7% 99.5%  
72 11% 98.8%  
73 57% 88% Median
74 5% 31%  
75 23% 26%  
76 0.6% 2% Majority
77 1.5% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.6%  
71 1.0% 99.0%  
72 16% 98%  
73 17% 82%  
74 61% 65% Median
75 3% 4%  
76 0.3% 0.4% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.8%  
71 41% 98%  
72 18% 57% Median
73 23% 39%  
74 14% 16%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 5% 99.9%  
70 25% 95%  
71 2% 70%  
72 7% 68%  
73 60% 61% Median
74 0.9% 1.4%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 6% 100%  
68 24% 94%  
69 1.2% 70%  
70 5% 69%  
71 63% 65% Median
72 0.5% 2%  
73 0.8% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 15% 99.9%  
66 15% 85%  
67 2% 70%  
68 5% 69%  
69 42% 64% Median
70 22% 22%  
71 0.5% 0.7%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 15% 100%  
64 14% 85%  
65 1.2% 71%  
66 2% 69%  
67 44% 67% Median
68 22% 23%  
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 1.1% 99.5%  
63 1.5% 98%  
64 58% 97% Median
65 22% 39%  
66 15% 17% Last Result
67 2% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.9% 99.6%  
56 15% 98.8%  
57 15% 83%  
58 42% 68% Median
59 4% 26%  
60 22% 22%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.6%  
54 11% 98%  
55 42% 87%  
56 2% 44%  
57 41% 42% Median
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 1.2% 99.1%  
50 23% 98%  
51 31% 75%  
52 41% 44% Median
53 4% 4%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.5%  
49 16% 99.0%  
50 2% 83%  
51 16% 82%  
52 44% 66% Median
53 21% 22%  
54 1.1% 1.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.3% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.7%  
47 12% 99.2%  
48 6% 88%  
49 17% 81%  
50 63% 64% Median
51 1.4% 2%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 1.3% 99.9%  
40 8% 98.6%  
41 11% 91%  
42 5% 80%  
43 60% 75% Median
44 15% 15%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 23% 99.7%  
39 15% 77%  
40 14% 62%  
41 45% 48% Median
42 3% 3% Last Result
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 11% 99.4%  
39 20% 88%  
40 3% 68%  
41 63% 65% Median
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100% Last Result
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 1.0% 99.8%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 17% 95%  
38 77% 79% Median
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.6%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
29 3% 99.3%  
30 18% 96%  
31 23% 78%  
32 54% 55% Median
33 0.7% 0.9%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 6% 99.7%  
25 12% 94%  
26 5% 82%  
27 40% 77% Median
28 15% 37%  
29 22% 22%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations