Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 9–14 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.2% 16.1–18.5% 15.8–18.8% 15.5–19.1% 15.0–19.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 14.6% 13.5–15.8% 13.2–16.1% 13.0–16.4% 12.5–16.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.9% 11.0–13.0% 10.7–13.3% 10.5–13.6% 10.0–14.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.4–10.3% 8.2–10.5% 8.0–10.8% 7.6–11.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 8.6% 7.8–9.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.4–10.1% 7.0–10.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.7–9.4% 6.4–9.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.6% 5.9–7.5% 5.7–7.7% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.6% 5.9–7.5% 5.7–7.7% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.6% 4.0–5.4% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.5–6.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 27 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–30
Forum voor Democratie 2 21 20–23 20–24 19–25 19–26
GroenLinks 14 18 17–20 17–20 16–20 15–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–16 12–16 12–16 12–17
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 11–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–14 10–14 10–14 10–15
Democraten 66 19 10 9–10 8–11 8–12 7–13
Socialistische Partij 14 9 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 8 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
50Plus 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–6
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 8% 99.4%  
25 25% 91%  
26 12% 66%  
27 7% 54% Median
28 42% 47%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.7% 0.8%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 3% 99.9%  
20 8% 97%  
21 43% 89% Median
22 25% 46%  
23 11% 21%  
24 5% 9%  
25 3% 5%  
26 1.2% 1.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100% Last Result
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.3%  
17 11% 95%  
18 46% 84% Median
19 9% 38%  
20 28% 28%  
21 0.4% 0.6%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 5% 99.8%  
13 28% 95%  
14 44% 67% Median
15 10% 23%  
16 12% 13%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 7% 99.6%  
12 10% 92%  
13 35% 82% Median
14 3% 47%  
15 39% 44%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100% Last Result
10 5% 99.7%  
11 44% 95%  
12 31% 51% Median
13 10% 20%  
14 10% 10%  
15 0.7% 0.9%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 6% 98%  
9 6% 92%  
10 77% 86% Median
11 5% 9%  
12 3% 4%  
13 1.5% 1.5%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 50% 97% Median
10 12% 47%  
11 34% 35%  
12 0.9% 1.3%  
13 0.3% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100% Last Result
6 15% 96%  
7 19% 81%  
8 61% 63% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 20% 100%  
5 19% 80% Last Result
6 50% 61% Median
7 8% 10%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.3% 100%  
4 19% 98.7% Last Result
5 54% 80% Median
6 24% 25%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 69% 99.6% Last Result, Median
4 22% 31%  
5 8% 9%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 54% 99.0% Median
3 42% 45% Last Result
4 3% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 80 98.7% 76–81 76–83 76–83 75–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 76 59% 73–78 73–79 72–79 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 77 75% 74–78 72–78 71–79 69–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 71 2% 69–72 69–73 68–75 67–76
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 0.2% 69–75 68–75 67–75 66–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 71 0.1% 68–71 65–73 65–74 64–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 68 0% 66–68 66–70 65–71 63–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 63–68 63–69 63–70 62–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 63 0% 60–64 60–65 60–66 58–67
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 59–64 58–64 57–64 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 58 0% 55–60 53–60 52–61 52–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 50–54 50–55 49–58 48–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 54 0% 51–57 51–57 50–57 49–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 52 0% 48–52 47–53 46–55 45–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 49 0% 46–50 46–51 46–52 44–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 38–42 38–42 37–45 37–46
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 37–40 36–41 36–42 34–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 35 0% 34–39 33–40 33–40 32–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 32–35 30–37 29–37 29–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 25–29 24–30 23–30 22–30
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 24 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 1.1% 99.9%  
76 20% 98.7% Majority
77 6% 79% Last Result
78 3% 73% Median
79 15% 71%  
80 5% 55%  
81 43% 50%  
82 1.1% 6%  
83 4% 5%  
84 1.0% 1.2%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 5% 99.8%  
73 21% 95%  
74 4% 74% Last Result
75 11% 70% Median
76 10% 59% Majority
77 4% 49%  
78 40% 46%  
79 4% 6%  
80 1.0% 1.3%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 1.3% 100%  
70 0.5% 98.6%  
71 2% 98%  
72 3% 96%  
73 1.3% 93%  
74 12% 92%  
75 4% 79%  
76 22% 75% Majority
77 4% 53% Median
78 45% 49%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 1.3% 99.8%  
68 1.2% 98.5%  
69 21% 97%  
70 10% 76% Median
71 49% 66%  
72 8% 17%  
73 5% 9%  
74 1.1% 5%  
75 2% 4%  
76 2% 2% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.3% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 4% 99.4%  
68 4% 96%  
69 3% 91%  
70 45% 89%  
71 3% 44% Median
72 7% 41%  
73 3% 34%  
74 21% 31%  
75 10% 10%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 1.2% 99.9%  
65 7% 98.8%  
66 0.8% 92%  
67 0.7% 91%  
68 24% 91%  
69 5% 67%  
70 8% 62%  
71 46% 54% Median
72 2% 8%  
73 2% 5%  
74 3% 3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 1.3% 99.5%  
65 2% 98%  
66 29% 96%  
67 13% 67% Median
68 45% 54%  
69 3% 9%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.4% 3%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 1.1% 99.9%  
63 19% 98.8%  
64 3% 79%  
65 2% 77% Median
66 57% 75%  
67 7% 18%  
68 5% 11%  
69 1.3% 5%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.0% 1.4%  
72 0.1% 0.4%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 1.0% 99.9%  
59 0.7% 98.9%  
60 20% 98%  
61 8% 78%  
62 9% 70% Median
63 50% 61%  
64 5% 11%  
65 2% 6%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0% 0.4%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 3% 99.7%  
58 4% 97%  
59 6% 93%  
60 4% 87%  
61 41% 83%  
62 5% 42% Median
63 22% 36%  
64 13% 14%  
65 0.3% 2%  
66 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 4% 99.9%  
53 1.3% 96%  
54 0.5% 95%  
55 4% 94%  
56 21% 90%  
57 14% 68%  
58 7% 54%  
59 3% 47% Median
60 40% 45%  
61 4% 5%  
62 0.7% 0.9%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.7%  
49 4% 99.5%  
50 21% 96%  
51 5% 75%  
52 5% 70%  
53 46% 65% Median
54 13% 19%  
55 2% 6%  
56 0.8% 4%  
57 0.2% 3%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 3% 99.3%  
51 21% 96%  
52 8% 76%  
53 14% 68%  
54 4% 54% Median
55 6% 50%  
56 1.3% 44%  
57 41% 43%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 2% 100%  
46 2% 98%  
47 1.4% 96%  
48 19% 94%  
49 7% 75%  
50 10% 68%  
51 7% 58% Median
52 43% 50%  
53 3% 7%  
54 1.1% 4%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 0.5%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.4%  
46 9% 98%  
47 21% 88%  
48 15% 67%  
49 41% 52% Median
50 3% 11%  
51 4% 8%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.1% 1.3%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 3% 99.6%  
38 21% 97%  
39 4% 76%  
40 16% 72%  
41 8% 56% Median
42 44% 49%  
43 1.2% 5%  
44 0.5% 3%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.5%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 5% 98%  
37 20% 93%  
38 18% 73%  
39 44% 55% Median
40 4% 10%  
41 3% 7%  
42 3% 4% Last Result
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.9%  
33 8% 99.1%  
34 4% 91%  
35 58% 87%  
36 3% 28% Median
37 8% 25%  
38 4% 17%  
39 6% 13%  
40 7% 7%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 3% 99.8%  
30 3% 97%  
31 0.7% 94%  
32 11% 93%  
33 62% 83% Last Result
34 6% 20% Median
35 6% 14%  
36 0.4% 8%  
37 6% 8%  
38 1.2% 1.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.5% 100%  
23 4% 99.4%  
24 2% 96%  
25 63% 94%  
26 6% 31% Median
27 9% 24%  
28 3% 15% Last Result
29 5% 11%  
30 6% 6%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 3% 98%  
22 5% 94%  
23 25% 90%  
24 43% 65% Median
25 5% 22%  
26 14% 17%  
27 1.4% 3%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations