Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 13–19 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.7% 15.8–17.6% 15.6–17.8% 15.4–18.0% 15.0–18.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie 2 28 26–29 26–29 26–30 25–31
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 24–27 24–28 24–29 23–29
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–17 13–17 13–17 12–17
GroenLinks 14 15 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 14–16 14–16 13–17 12–17
Democraten 66 19 11 10–13 9–13 9–13 9–13
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 8 7–8 7–9 6–9 6–10
Socialistische Partij 14 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
ChristenUnie 5 8 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
50Plus 4 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.4% 100%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 13% 98%  
27 21% 85%  
28 48% 64% Median
29 12% 16%  
30 2% 4%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 9% 98%  
25 21% 89%  
26 50% 68% Median
27 11% 18%  
28 3% 7%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 3% 98%  
14 43% 95%  
15 28% 52% Median
16 11% 23%  
17 12% 12%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 4% 100%  
14 40% 96% Last Result
15 20% 55% Median
16 29% 35%  
17 6% 7%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.8% 100%  
13 2% 99.2%  
14 22% 97%  
15 52% 75% Median
16 21% 24%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 6% 99.9%  
10 42% 94%  
11 21% 52% Median
12 17% 31%  
13 14% 14%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100%  
7 20% 96%  
8 66% 76% Median
9 9% 10%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 17% 98%  
8 66% 81% Median
9 14% 15%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 9% 100%  
7 17% 91%  
8 30% 74% Median
9 43% 44%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 10% 98%  
7 29% 88%  
8 59% 59% Median
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 60% 99.9% Median
4 30% 40% Last Result
5 11% 11%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 27% 99.5% Last Result
4 37% 72% Median
5 35% 35%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 67% 100% Median
2 32% 33%  
3 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 93% 76–79 75–80 75–81 75–82
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 76 74% 74–78 74–78 74–79 73–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 73 27% 72–77 72–78 72–78 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 73 20% 73–76 72–78 71–78 69–78
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 72 10% 72–76 71–76 71–77 70–78
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 71 2% 70–74 70–75 69–75 68–77
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 71 0.1% 69–74 69–75 69–75 67–75
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 69 0% 68–72 68–72 67–73 67–74
Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 68 0% 66–71 66–71 66–71 65–73
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 61–66 61–67 61–67 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 58 0% 57–61 57–62 56–62 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 54–58 53–59 53–60 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 51 0% 50–54 50–56 49–56 47–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 51 0% 50–54 49–55 49–55 47–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 48 0% 46–51 45–51 45–51 45–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 41 0% 39–42 39–45 38–45 37–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 41 0% 39–43 39–44 39–44 38–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 40 0% 38–43 38–44 38–44 38–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 37 0% 36–39 35–39 34–39 34–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 29–31 29–31 27–32 27–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 24–28 24–28 24–29 24–29

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 6% 99.6%  
76 10% 93% Majority
77 50% 84% Last Result
78 6% 34% Median
79 22% 28%  
80 2% 6%  
81 2% 3%  
82 1.1% 1.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 1.2% 99.7%  
74 14% 98.6% Last Result
75 10% 84%  
76 45% 74% Majority
77 7% 29% Median
78 17% 21%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.6% 0.7%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.4% 100%  
70 1.0% 99.6%  
71 1.0% 98.6%  
72 42% 98%  
73 10% 56%  
74 4% 46%  
75 14% 41% Median
76 9% 27% Majority
77 9% 18%  
78 9% 9%  
79 0.4% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.7% 100%  
70 1.1% 99.3%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 7% 97%  
73 42% 90%  
74 17% 48%  
75 11% 31% Median
76 11% 20% Majority
77 4% 9%  
78 5% 5%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.3% 100%  
70 0.7% 99.7%  
71 6% 99.0%  
72 47% 93%  
73 5% 45% Median
74 16% 40%  
75 15% 25%  
76 6% 10% Majority
77 3% 4%  
78 0.9% 0.9%  
79 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.7% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.1%  
70 11% 97%  
71 43% 86%  
72 15% 43% Median
73 5% 27%  
74 15% 23%  
75 6% 7%  
76 1.0% 2% Majority
77 0.6% 0.6%  
78 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.9% 99.5%  
69 33% 98.6%  
70 9% 66%  
71 10% 56%  
72 25% 46% Median
73 9% 20%  
74 4% 11%  
75 7% 7%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 4% 99.6%  
68 10% 95%  
69 49% 85%  
70 6% 37% Median
71 16% 30%  
72 10% 14%  
73 3% 4%  
74 1.0% 1.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.9% 99.7%  
66 9% 98.8%  
67 15% 90%  
68 44% 75%  
69 5% 31% Median
70 15% 25%  
71 9% 11%  
72 0.6% 1.3%  
73 0.7% 0.7%  
74 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 0.9% 99.6%  
61 34% 98.7%  
62 6% 65%  
63 22% 59%  
64 9% 37% Median
65 15% 28%  
66 6% 13% Last Result
67 6% 7%  
68 0.9% 0.9%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.8% 99.8%  
56 4% 99.0%  
57 8% 95%  
58 38% 87%  
59 8% 49%  
60 21% 41% Median
61 11% 20%  
62 7% 9%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.6% 100%  
52 0.7% 99.4%  
53 9% 98.7%  
54 9% 90%  
55 38% 81%  
56 17% 43% Median
57 12% 26%  
58 8% 14%  
59 2% 6%  
60 4% 4%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.5% 100%  
48 1.3% 99.5%  
49 2% 98%  
50 11% 96%  
51 46% 85%  
52 10% 38% Median
53 13% 29%  
54 8% 15%  
55 3% 8%  
56 5% 5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.5% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.5%  
49 6% 99.3%  
50 41% 93%  
51 4% 52%  
52 11% 49% Median
53 21% 38%  
54 10% 17%  
55 5% 6%  
56 1.4% 1.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 7% 99.9%  
46 5% 93%  
47 5% 87%  
48 47% 83%  
49 7% 36% Median
50 13% 29%  
51 14% 16%  
52 1.5% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 2% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 98%  
39 14% 97%  
40 16% 83%  
41 48% 67% Median
42 11% 19% Last Result
43 2% 8%  
44 0.7% 6%  
45 5% 5%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.8%  
39 34% 98.9%  
40 14% 65%  
41 18% 51% Median
42 20% 33%  
43 5% 13%  
44 7% 8%  
45 0.9% 0.9%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.4% 100%  
38 12% 99.6%  
39 2% 88%  
40 47% 86%  
41 13% 39% Median
42 7% 26%  
43 14% 19%  
44 5% 5%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100% Last Result
34 3% 99.9%  
35 4% 97%  
36 13% 93%  
37 45% 79%  
38 15% 35% Median
39 19% 20%  
40 0.8% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 3% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 97% Last Result
29 57% 97%  
30 0.7% 40% Median
31 36% 39%  
32 1.1% 3%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 39% 99.6%  
25 7% 60%  
26 17% 53% Median
27 18% 36%  
28 14% 18%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

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