Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 20–26 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.8% 15.9–17.7% 15.7–17.9% 15.5–18.2% 15.1–18.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 16.1% 15.3–17.0% 15.0–17.3% 14.8–17.5% 14.4–17.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.5% 9.8–11.7% 9.7–11.9% 9.3–12.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.7% 10.0–11.5% 9.8–11.7% 9.7–11.9% 9.3–12.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.1% 9.4–10.8% 9.2–11.0% 9.0–11.2% 8.7–11.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.9–7.7% 5.6–8.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 5.4% 4.9–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.4% 4.9–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.4% 4.9–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.4% 4.0–5.5% 3.8–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 3.4% 3.0–3.8% 2.9–4.0% 2.8–4.1% 2.6–4.3%
DENK 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.4% 2.0–3.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 26 25–27 25–27 24–28
Forum voor Democratie 2 25 23–25 23–25 23–26 23–27
GroenLinks 14 16 16–17 16–18 15–18 15–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 15–17 15–17 15–18 14–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–16 15–16 15–16 14–17
Democraten 66 19 10 10 9–10 9–11 8–11
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 9 8–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
Socialistische Partij 14 7 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
ChristenUnie 5 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
50Plus 4 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
DENK 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 1.0% 99.7%  
25 5% 98.8%  
26 87% 94% Median
27 6% 6%  
28 0.6% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 11% 99.7%  
24 28% 89%  
25 58% 61% Median
26 2% 3%  
27 1.1% 1.2%  
28 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100% Last Result
15 3% 99.9%  
16 77% 97% Median
17 12% 21%  
18 8% 9%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.0% 99.9%  
15 58% 99.0% Median
16 29% 41%  
17 9% 12%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.7%  
15 33% 98.8%  
16 65% 66% Median
17 0.6% 0.7%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.5% 100%  
9 8% 99.5%  
10 89% 91% Median
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 6% 99.4%  
8 28% 93%  
9 65% 65% Median
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 66% 99.8% Median
8 3% 34%  
9 31% 31%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.2% 100%  
7 32% 99.8%  
8 64% 67% Median
9 3% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 9% 99.9%  
7 63% 91% Median
8 28% 28%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 25% 100% Last Result
5 74% 75% Median
6 0.6% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 71% 100% Last Result, Median
4 25% 29%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100%  
2 86% 88% Median
3 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 68% 74–78 73–78 72–79 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 75 6% 75 75–77 73–77 72–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 76 59% 72–76 71–76 71–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 74 4% 74–75 73–75 73–76 71–77
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 71 3% 71–75 71–75 71–76 69–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 74 0.1% 71–74 70–74 69–74 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 72 0% 69–72 68–72 68–72 68–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 69 0% 67–69 66–69 64–70 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 67 0% 65–67 64–67 63–68 63–69
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 64–66 64–66 64–67 62–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 59 0% 58–59 57–59 57–60 56–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 57 0% 57–59 56–59 56–59 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 51 0% 51–53 50–53 50–53 49–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 52 0% 51–52 49–52 49–52 49–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 51 0% 49–51 48–51 48–51 46–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 41 0% 41–43 41–43 41–44 39–44
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 41 0% 41–42 40–43 40–43 38–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 41–42 40–42 40–42 39–44
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 38 0% 38–39 38–39 37–41 36–41
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 31 0% 31–33 31–33 30–33 29–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 25–26 24–26 24–26 23–27

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 5% 100%  
73 0.7% 95%  
74 7% 95%  
75 20% 88%  
76 9% 68% Majority
77 0.6% 59% Last Result
78 56% 59% Median
79 2% 3%  
80 0.8% 0.8%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 2% 99.4%  
74 2% 97%  
75 89% 96% Median
76 1.1% 6% Majority
77 5% 5%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 5% 99.7%  
72 7% 95%  
73 21% 88%  
74 1.2% 67% Last Result
75 7% 66%  
76 56% 59% Median, Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 0.8% 0.8%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.4%  
73 6% 98.9%  
74 57% 93% Median
75 32% 36%  
76 4% 4% Majority
77 0.3% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.9% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.1%  
71 59% 98.7% Median
72 0.5% 40%  
73 8% 40%  
74 20% 32%  
75 9% 12%  
76 3% 3% Majority
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 5% 99.9%  
70 3% 95%  
71 20% 92%  
72 10% 72%  
73 0.8% 62%  
74 60% 61% Median
75 1.2% 1.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 100%  
68 7% 99.8%  
69 20% 92%  
70 4% 73%  
71 8% 68%  
72 58% 60% Median
73 1.4% 2%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 4% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 95%  
66 3% 95%  
67 30% 92%  
68 0.8% 62%  
69 58% 61% Median
70 2% 3%  
71 1.0% 1.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 5% 99.9%  
64 3% 95%  
65 24% 92%  
66 8% 68%  
67 57% 60% Median
68 2% 3%  
69 1.0% 1.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 1.5% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 98%  
64 58% 98% Median
65 21% 40%  
66 14% 18% Last Result
67 3% 4%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 1.0% 99.7%  
57 5% 98.7%  
58 11% 94%  
59 80% 82% Median
60 2% 3%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.6%  
56 6% 99.1%  
57 77% 93% Median
58 4% 16%  
59 11% 11%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 5% 99.3%  
51 57% 94% Median
52 21% 37%  
53 15% 16%  
54 0.6% 1.1%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 5% 99.6%  
50 4% 95%  
51 20% 91%  
52 68% 71% Median
53 2% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 0.6% 99.2%  
48 5% 98.6%  
49 27% 94%  
50 0.8% 66%  
51 65% 65% Median
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.6% 100%  
40 1.1% 99.4%  
41 61% 98% Median
42 21% 37% Last Result
43 12% 16%  
44 3% 3%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.5%  
40 6% 99.0%  
41 81% 93% Median
42 4% 13%  
43 8% 9%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.9% 99.8%  
40 5% 98.9%  
41 23% 94%  
42 70% 71% Median
43 0.6% 1.3%  
44 0.6% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 3% 99.3%  
38 60% 96% Median
39 32% 36%  
40 1.0% 4%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 3% 99.5%  
31 84% 96% Median
32 1.0% 12%  
33 11% 11%  
34 0.3% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 8% 99.1%  
25 24% 92%  
26 67% 68% Median
27 0.4% 0.7%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations