Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 17–23 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 14.0% 13.2–14.8% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.3% 12.4–15.7%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
DENK 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 26–29 26–29 26–30 25–31
Forum voor Democratie 2 22 20–22 20–23 20–23 19–24
Partij van de Arbeid 9 18 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–16 14–16 14–17 13–17
GroenLinks 14 14 13–15 13–15 13–16 12–17
Democraten 66 19 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–12
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 9 9–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–10
Socialistische Partij 14 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–9
50Plus 4 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
DENK 3 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 60% 98.7% Median
27 3% 39%  
28 23% 35%  
29 9% 13%  
30 3% 4%  
31 1.1% 1.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 1.4% 100%  
20 12% 98.6%  
21 27% 86%  
22 50% 59% Median
23 8% 9%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 1.2% 100%  
18 49% 98.8% Median
19 9% 50%  
20 17% 40%  
21 23% 24%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.4% 100%  
14 8% 98.5%  
15 27% 91%  
16 61% 64% Median
17 3% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.9% 100%  
13 14% 99.1%  
14 38% 86% Last Result, Median
15 45% 47%  
16 1.0% 3%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 4% 100%  
9 30% 96%  
10 48% 66% Median
11 18% 18%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.3% 99.9%  
8 6% 99.6%  
9 50% 93% Median
10 43% 44%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 1.4% 100%  
7 76% 98.6% Median
8 16% 23%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100%  
6 15% 95%  
7 66% 81% Median
8 14% 15%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100% Last Result
6 17% 99.5%  
7 78% 83% Median
8 3% 4%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 9% 99.9% Last Result
5 80% 91% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 50% 99.8% Last Result, Median
4 44% 50%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 21% 100%  
2 78% 79% Median
3 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 78 99.0% 77–80 77–81 77–81 75–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 54% 74–76 73–77 73–78 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 74 5% 72–75 72–75 71–77 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 74 6% 72–75 72–76 71–76 69–76
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij 80 73 0.5% 71–74 70–74 69–75 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 71 0% 70–72 70–73 69–74 67–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 69 0% 68–71 68–72 67–72 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 65–67 65–68 64–69 62–69
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 64–67 63–67 61–68 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 64 0% 63–66 63–67 62–67 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 62 0% 60–63 60–64 60–65 58–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 59 0% 58–60 58–61 57–63 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 56 0% 54–59 54–59 54–59 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 52 0% 51–54 51–54 51–56 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 52 0% 51–53 51–54 50–54 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 47 0% 44–48 44–49 44–49 43–51
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 43–46 43–46 42–47 41–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 42–44 42–45 41–45 39–47
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 41 0% 39–44 39–44 39–44 39–45
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 34 0% 33–37 33–37 33–37 32–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 24–26 23–26 23–27 23–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.9% 99.9%  
76 1.1% 99.0% Majority
77 42% 98% Median
78 9% 56%  
79 29% 48%  
80 13% 19%  
81 3% 5%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.6%  
72 0.8% 99.2%  
73 3% 98%  
74 35% 95%  
75 6% 60% Median
76 46% 54% Majority
77 4% 8% Last Result
78 4% 4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 2% 100%  
71 2% 98%  
72 24% 97%  
73 12% 73% Median
74 51% 61%  
75 6% 10%  
76 0.7% 5% Majority
77 2% 4%  
78 2% 2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.3%  
71 2% 99.0%  
72 29% 97%  
73 11% 68% Median
74 45% 57% Last Result
75 6% 12%  
76 6% 6% Majority
77 0.3% 0.3%  
78 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 4% 99.8%  
70 2% 96%  
71 14% 93%  
72 10% 79% Median
73 44% 69%  
74 23% 25%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.4% 0.5% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.9%  
68 1.3% 99.2%  
69 2% 98%  
70 31% 96%  
71 51% 65% Median
72 7% 14%  
73 3% 7%  
74 4% 4%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.7%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 29% 97%  
69 45% 68% Median
70 12% 23%  
71 5% 11%  
72 6% 6%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.8% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.1%  
64 2% 98%  
65 36% 96%  
66 45% 60% Median
67 5% 14%  
68 5% 9%  
69 4% 4%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 3% 100%  
62 0.3% 97%  
63 3% 97%  
64 11% 94%  
65 12% 83% Median
66 44% 71% Last Result
67 24% 27%  
68 3% 3%  
69 0.6% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.6%  
62 2% 98.7%  
63 28% 97%  
64 52% 69% Median
65 5% 17%  
66 5% 12%  
67 7% 7%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 1.0% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 98.8%  
60 38% 98% Median
61 10% 60% Last Result
62 13% 51%  
63 28% 38%  
64 6% 9%  
65 0.8% 3%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.9% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 21% 97%  
59 49% 76% Median
60 18% 27%  
61 4% 9%  
62 2% 4%  
63 3% 3%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.9% 99.9%  
54 38% 98.9% Median
55 1.1% 61%  
56 26% 60%  
57 18% 34%  
58 4% 16%  
59 10% 12%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.6% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.4%  
50 0.9% 98.9%  
51 22% 98%  
52 45% 76% Median
53 13% 30%  
54 13% 17%  
55 1.0% 4%  
56 3% 3%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.9% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.0%  
50 3% 98%  
51 30% 95% Median
52 50% 65%  
53 7% 15%  
54 5% 8%  
55 1.5% 2%  
56 1.0% 1.0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100% Last Result
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 38% 99.5% Median
45 2% 61%  
46 9% 59%  
47 29% 51%  
48 13% 22%  
49 7% 9%  
50 0.6% 2%  
51 0.9% 0.9%  
52 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 4% 99.3%  
43 7% 95%  
44 50% 88% Median
45 12% 38%  
46 23% 26%  
47 2% 3% Last Result
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.7% 100%  
40 1.0% 99.3%  
41 3% 98%  
42 65% 96% Median
43 16% 30%  
44 9% 14%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.5% 2%  
47 1.0% 1.0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 11% 99.5%  
40 2% 89%  
41 51% 87% Median
42 12% 36%  
43 2% 24%  
44 21% 21%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 1.0% 99.6%  
33 13% 98.7%  
34 47% 86% Median
35 12% 38%  
36 5% 26%  
37 20% 21%  
38 0.1% 0.4%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.8%  
23 6% 99.7%  
24 8% 94%  
25 32% 86%  
26 50% 53% Median
27 2% 3%  
28 1.2% 1.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations