Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 24–30 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.3% 16.5–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 14.7% 13.9–15.5% 13.6–15.8% 13.4–16.0% 13.1–16.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
DENK 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 27 26–28 25–28 24–28 24–30
Forum voor Democratie 2 21 20–23 20–24 20–24 20–25
Partij van de Arbeid 9 19 18–20 18–21 18–22 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–17 13–17 13–17 13–17
GroenLinks 14 15 14–16 14–17 14–17 13–18
Democraten 66 19 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Socialistische Partij 14 6 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
50Plus 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
DENK 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 4% 99.6%  
25 4% 96%  
26 36% 92%  
27 21% 56% Median
28 33% 35%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.6%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 11% 99.8%  
21 46% 89% Median
22 12% 43%  
23 24% 31%  
24 6% 7%  
25 0.9% 1.0%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 11% 98%  
19 65% 87% Median
20 16% 23%  
21 4% 7%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 8% 99.8%  
14 16% 92%  
15 53% 76% Median
16 10% 23%  
17 12% 12%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 13% 98% Last Result
15 45% 86% Median
16 34% 41%  
17 6% 7%  
18 0.7% 0.7%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.9%  
9 9% 99.2%  
10 61% 90% Median
11 26% 28%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100%  
8 17% 97%  
9 33% 80% Median
10 46% 47%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 63% 99.5% Median
7 27% 37%  
8 7% 10%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 10% 98%  
7 71% 88% Median
8 16% 17%  
9 1.2% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100% Last Result
6 15% 99.1%  
7 39% 84% Median
8 44% 45%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 42% 99.7% Last Result
5 38% 57% Median
6 20% 20%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 34% 99.8% Last Result
4 61% 66% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 64% 100% Median
2 35% 36%  
3 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 79 95% 76–80 76–80 75–81 74–82
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij 80 72 19% 72–77 72–77 71–77 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 75 17% 72–77 72–77 71–77 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 12% 72–76 71–76 71–77 71–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 73 2% 71–74 69–75 69–75 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 69 0.2% 69–72 69–72 68–73 67–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 68 0% 67–70 67–71 67–71 65–72
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 66–69 65–70 64–70 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 65 0% 63–67 63–67 63–68 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 64 0% 62–65 61–66 61–66 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 62 0% 59–62 59–63 58–64 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 60 0% 57–61 57–61 56–61 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 57 0% 55–57 53–58 53–59 52–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 53 0% 50–53 50–53 50–54 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 51 0% 48–53 47–53 47–53 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 46 0% 45–47 43–48 43–49 42–50
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 43–46 42–47 42–47 41–48
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 41 0% 40–44 40–44 39–44 38–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 40–43 39–43 39–43 38–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 34 0% 33–36 33–36 32–37 31–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–27 23–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 4% 99.2%  
76 15% 95% Majority
77 12% 81%  
78 7% 69% Median
79 46% 62%  
80 13% 16%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.8% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.1%  
71 3% 98%  
72 50% 95% Median
73 12% 45%  
74 6% 32%  
75 8% 26%  
76 8% 19% Majority
77 10% 11%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.3% 100%  
70 1.4% 99.6%  
71 2% 98%  
72 9% 97%  
73 15% 87%  
74 17% 73% Median
75 39% 56%  
76 4% 17% Majority
77 12% 13%  
78 0.5% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 8% 99.8%  
72 4% 92%  
73 16% 88% Median
74 21% 72%  
75 40% 51%  
76 9% 12% Majority
77 2% 3% Last Result
78 0.8% 1.3%  
79 0.5% 0.5%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 6% 100%  
70 4% 94%  
71 9% 90%  
72 20% 81% Median
73 18% 62%  
74 36% 44% Last Result
75 7% 8%  
76 1.2% 2% Majority
77 0.6% 0.6%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.4% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 3% 99.3%  
69 54% 96% Median
70 24% 42%  
71 8% 18%  
72 8% 11%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.8% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.5%  
67 15% 98%  
68 51% 83% Median
69 20% 31%  
70 3% 11%  
71 7% 8%  
72 0.9% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 1.2% 99.8%  
64 1.3% 98.6%  
65 5% 97%  
66 57% 93% Last Result, Median
67 11% 36%  
68 6% 25%  
69 9% 19%  
70 9% 9%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.6% 99.9%  
63 10% 99.3%  
64 23% 90% Median
65 48% 66%  
66 4% 18%  
67 11% 14%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.8% 1.3%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 100%  
61 7% 99.7%  
62 5% 92%  
63 37% 87% Median
64 35% 50%  
65 7% 15%  
66 7% 9%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 2% 99.9%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 18% 96%  
60 10% 78%  
61 17% 68% Last Result, Median
62 43% 51%  
63 5% 8%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 1.4% 99.5%  
56 2% 98%  
57 24% 96%  
58 4% 72%  
59 12% 68% Median
60 39% 56%  
61 15% 17%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 2% 100%  
53 4% 98%  
54 3% 94%  
55 25% 91%  
56 12% 67% Median
57 47% 55%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 4%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.5%  
50 22% 98%  
51 9% 75%  
52 7% 66% Median
53 54% 59%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 6% 99.8%  
48 6% 94%  
49 3% 88%  
50 20% 85%  
51 20% 65% Median
52 12% 45%  
53 32% 33%  
54 1.0% 1.4%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 2% 100% Last Result
43 3% 98%  
44 3% 94%  
45 24% 91%  
46 28% 67% Median
47 32% 39%  
48 3% 6%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.7% 0.7%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.8% 99.9%  
42 5% 99.1%  
43 12% 94%  
44 47% 82% Median
45 14% 36%  
46 15% 21%  
47 5% 6% Last Result
48 1.1% 1.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 1.2% 99.9%  
39 3% 98.8%  
40 25% 96%  
41 44% 70% Median
42 4% 26%  
43 10% 22%  
44 11% 12%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.5% 100%  
39 9% 99.5%  
40 12% 90%  
41 9% 78%  
42 23% 68% Median
43 43% 45%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.8% 1.3%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.8% 100%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 24% 97%  
34 46% 72% Median
35 6% 27%  
36 16% 21%  
37 4% 4%  
38 0.5% 0.5%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 5% 99.7%  
24 19% 95%  
25 37% 75% Median
26 26% 39%  
27 11% 12%  
28 0.9% 1.4%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations