Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 1–7 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.3% 16.5–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 14.7% 13.9–15.5% 13.6–15.8% 13.4–16.0% 13.1–16.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
DENK 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 25–28 25–29 24–29 24–29
Forum voor Democratie 2 23 21–24 21–24 20–25 20–25
Partij van de Arbeid 9 20 17–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–17
GroenLinks 14 15 14–16 13–16 13–17 13–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Democraten 66 19 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–9
Socialistische Partij 14 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
50Plus 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
DENK 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 5% 99.7%  
25 9% 95%  
26 39% 86% Median
27 23% 47%  
28 17% 24%  
29 6% 7%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 13% 97%  
22 27% 84%  
23 44% 57% Median
24 10% 13%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.6% 100%  
17 13% 99.4%  
18 6% 87%  
19 16% 80%  
20 38% 64% Median
21 25% 26%  
22 1.2% 1.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 12% 97%  
15 31% 85%  
16 43% 54% Median
17 11% 11%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 6% 100%  
14 10% 94% Last Result
15 60% 85% Median
16 22% 25%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100%  
8 21% 96%  
9 32% 76% Median
10 41% 43%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 37% 98%  
9 48% 61% Median
10 13% 13%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 3% 100%  
7 50% 97% Median
8 26% 46%  
9 20% 20%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 35% 99.7%  
7 52% 65% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100% Last Result
6 42% 99.5%  
7 50% 58% Median
8 7% 8%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 15% 99.8% Last Result
5 62% 85% Median
6 22% 22%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 48% 99.9% Last Result
4 48% 52% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 57% 99.9% Median
2 43% 43%  
3 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 77 76% 75–79 75–79 74–80 73–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 39% 74–77 73–77 72–78 71–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 74 3% 72–75 72–75 70–77 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 72 3% 71–75 71–75 69–76 69–76
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij 80 72 0.2% 71–74 70–74 69–75 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 71 0% 70–73 69–73 68–73 66–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 70 0% 68–71 68–71 66–72 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 65–68 64–68 63–69 62–70
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 64–67 63–68 63–68 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 65 0% 63–66 63–66 62–67 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 62 0% 59–63 59–63 58–64 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 57 0% 56–59 56–59 55–61 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 55 0% 52–57 52–58 52–58 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 50 0% 49–52 49–53 48–54 47–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 52 0% 49–53 48–53 48–53 47–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 47 0% 43–48 43–48 42–49 42–49
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 42–45 42–46 41–46 39–47
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 42 0% 40–43 40–43 40–45 38–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 40–44 40–44 40–45 39–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 35 0% 33–37 33–37 32–37 32–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 24 0% 23–26 23–26 22–26 21–27

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.8% 100%  
74 2% 99.1%  
75 21% 97%  
76 3% 76% Majority
77 42% 73%  
78 15% 31% Median
79 13% 17%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.1% 2%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.6% 99.9%  
72 4% 99.3%  
73 1.4% 96%  
74 22% 94%  
75 33% 73% Median
76 24% 39% Majority
77 12% 15% Last Result
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.3% 2%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.4% 100%  
70 2% 99.6%  
71 2% 97%  
72 10% 95%  
73 28% 85%  
74 19% 57% Last Result, Median
75 34% 37%  
76 0.4% 3% Majority
77 1.0% 3%  
78 2% 2%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 3% 99.9%  
70 2% 97%  
71 31% 95%  
72 15% 64%  
73 16% 49% Median
74 22% 33%  
75 8% 10%  
76 2% 3% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 3% 99.7%  
70 3% 97%  
71 10% 94%  
72 51% 84%  
73 18% 33%  
74 11% 15% Median
75 4% 4%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.6% 100%  
67 0.8% 99.4%  
68 2% 98.5%  
69 3% 96%  
70 11% 93%  
71 56% 83% Median
72 16% 27%  
73 8% 11%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 1.4% 100%  
66 2% 98.5%  
67 1.4% 97%  
68 10% 95%  
69 20% 85%  
70 45% 66% Median
71 19% 21%  
72 0.7% 3%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 1.4% 100%  
63 2% 98.6%  
64 3% 97%  
65 16% 93%  
66 55% 77% Median
67 11% 22%  
68 9% 11%  
69 0.8% 3%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.9% 100%  
62 0.7% 99.1%  
63 6% 98%  
64 11% 92%  
65 29% 81%  
66 37% 53% Last Result
67 6% 15% Median
68 9% 9%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.9% 100%  
61 1.1% 99.1%  
62 3% 98%  
63 17% 95%  
64 5% 78%  
65 60% 72% Median
66 9% 12%  
67 2% 4%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 4% 99.5%  
59 14% 95%  
60 6% 81%  
61 13% 75% Last Result
62 14% 61% Median
63 44% 47%  
64 1.2% 3%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.9% 100%  
55 3% 99.0%  
56 29% 96%  
57 21% 67%  
58 22% 46% Median
59 19% 24%  
60 0.9% 5%  
61 2% 4%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 1.0% 99.9%  
52 14% 99.0%  
53 8% 85%  
54 3% 77%  
55 45% 73% Median
56 8% 28%  
57 15% 20%  
58 4% 5%  
59 1.0% 1.0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.3% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 3% 99.3%  
49 7% 96%  
50 40% 89%  
51 20% 49% Median
52 19% 29%  
53 6% 10%  
54 2% 4%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.4% 100%  
47 0.6% 99.6%  
48 5% 99.0%  
49 11% 94%  
50 5% 83%  
51 26% 78% Median
52 38% 52%  
53 11% 14%  
54 0.2% 2%  
55 0.1% 2%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 4% 100% Last Result
43 11% 96%  
44 4% 85%  
45 10% 81%  
46 12% 71% Median
47 40% 59%  
48 14% 19%  
49 5% 5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.5% 100%  
40 2% 99.5%  
41 2% 98%  
42 18% 96%  
43 22% 78%  
44 17% 56%  
45 31% 39% Median
46 6% 8%  
47 2% 2% Last Result
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.4% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.6%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 22% 98%  
41 12% 75%  
42 36% 63%  
43 24% 27% Median
44 0.9% 4%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 1.5% 99.5%  
40 9% 98%  
41 13% 89%  
42 48% 76% Median
43 17% 28%  
44 6% 10%  
45 2% 4%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 16% 97%  
34 20% 82%  
35 25% 62%  
36 10% 36% Median
37 26% 27%  
38 1.0% 1.1%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 2% 98%  
23 24% 96%  
24 38% 72%  
25 16% 34% Median
26 17% 18%  
27 1.1% 1.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations