Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 5–9 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 19.3% 18.3–20.4% 18.0–20.7% 17.7–21.0% 17.2–21.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 15.3% 14.4–16.3% 14.1–16.6% 13.9–16.9% 13.4–17.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.6% 11.8–13.6% 11.5–13.8% 11.3–14.1% 10.9–14.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.7%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.0–7.4% 5.9–7.6% 5.7–7.8% 5.4–8.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.3% 4.7–6.0% 4.6–6.1% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.9% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 30–31 28–31 28–32 27–33
Forum voor Democratie 2 23 22–25 22–25 21–25 21–25
GroenLinks 14 20 19–20 18–21 18–21 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 15–16 14–17 14–17 13–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 14–15 13–16 13–17 12–18
Democraten 66 19 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 7–11
Socialistische Partij 14 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 5 5 5 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.8%  
28 5% 99.3%  
29 3% 95%  
30 49% 92% Median
31 39% 43%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.4% 100%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 15% 97%  
23 34% 82% Median
24 9% 48%  
25 38% 39%  
26 0.3% 0.5%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 8% 98%  
19 35% 90%  
20 47% 56% Median
21 8% 9%  
22 0.8% 0.8%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.9%  
14 4% 98.6%  
15 58% 95% Median
16 32% 37%  
17 5% 6%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 5% 98%  
14 50% 93% Median
15 36% 44%  
16 4% 7%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.9% 0.9%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 44% 99.9%  
10 18% 56% Median
11 8% 38%  
12 30% 30%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 29% 100%  
8 12% 71%  
9 46% 59% Median
10 8% 12%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100%  
7 43% 99.1%  
8 16% 56% Median
9 39% 40%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 43% 99.6% Last Result
6 43% 56% Median
7 13% 13%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 41% 99.9% Last Result
6 43% 59% Median
7 16% 16%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 5% 99.9% Last Result
5 92% 95% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 84% 100% Median
3 15% 16% Last Result
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 58% 100% Median
2 42% 42%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 80 100% 79–84 79–84 79–84 78–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 80 99.2% 78–82 77–83 77–83 75–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 78 88% 75–79 75–80 75–80 73–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 76 53% 73–80 73–80 73–80 73–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 77 84% 74–78 73–78 72–78 72–78
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 73 1.3% 71–75 71–75 71–75 70–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 75 0.4% 72–75 71–75 70–75 70–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 72 0% 69–72 68–73 67–74 67–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 70 0% 67–70 66–70 65–71 65–71
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 63–68 63–68 63–68 63–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 62 0% 59–65 59–65 59–65 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 59 0% 59–62 58–62 58–62 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 55 0% 54–59 53–59 52–59 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 54 0% 53–56 53–56 52–58 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 54 0% 53–58 53–58 52–58 52–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 45 0% 45–47 43–47 43–49 42–49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 44 0% 44–46 43–46 42–47 42–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 39 0% 38–43 38–43 38–43 38–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 34–37 34–37 34–38 32–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 29–31 29–32 28–33 27–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 25 0% 24–28 24–28 23–28 23–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 1.0% 99.6%  
79 44% 98.6%  
80 6% 55%  
81 6% 49% Median
82 0.3% 42%  
83 13% 42%  
84 29% 30%  
85 0.4% 0.4%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.8% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.2% Majority
77 9% 99.1% Last Result
78 5% 90%  
79 30% 85% Median
80 7% 55%  
81 37% 48%  
82 3% 11%  
83 8% 8%  
84 0.5% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.7% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.1% Last Result
75 11% 98.8%  
76 4% 88% Majority
77 32% 84% Median
78 5% 53%  
79 38% 48%  
80 9% 10%  
81 0.5% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.8%  
73 38% 99.8%  
74 4% 62%  
75 5% 58% Median
76 15% 53% Majority
77 0.8% 38%  
78 7% 37%  
79 1.2% 31%  
80 29% 29%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 3% 99.8%  
73 2% 96%  
74 10% 95%  
75 0.9% 85% Median
76 5% 84% Majority
77 69% 79%  
78 10% 11%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 10% 99.4%  
72 39% 89%  
73 8% 50% Median
74 2% 42%  
75 39% 41%  
76 0.9% 1.3% Majority
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 3% 99.7%  
71 4% 96%  
72 8% 92%  
73 1.0% 84% Median
74 5% 83%  
75 77% 78%  
76 0.2% 0.4% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 4% 99.8%  
68 1.2% 96%  
69 10% 95%  
70 0.6% 85% Median
71 5% 84%  
72 71% 79%  
73 5% 9%  
74 4% 4%  
75 0.3% 0.3%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 4% 99.7%  
66 3% 96%  
67 9% 93%  
68 1.0% 84% Median
69 7% 83%  
70 72% 76%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 38% 99.7%  
64 11% 61%  
65 3% 50% Median
66 9% 47% Last Result
67 8% 39%  
68 29% 31%  
69 1.1% 1.3%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.8% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.1%  
59 39% 98.8%  
60 5% 59%  
61 4% 54% Median
62 15% 50%  
63 2% 35%  
64 0.2% 33%  
65 33% 33%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.6%  
58 5% 98%  
59 46% 93% Median
60 8% 47%  
61 1.5% 39% Last Result
62 36% 37%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.5%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 4% 99.8%  
53 1.2% 96%  
54 39% 94%  
55 9% 55% Median
56 9% 46%  
57 4% 37%  
58 0.3% 33%  
59 32% 33%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 1.0% 99.8%  
52 1.4% 98.7%  
53 9% 97%  
54 75% 88% Median
55 3% 13%  
56 6% 10%  
57 0.7% 4%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 4% 99.8%  
53 38% 96%  
54 9% 58% Median
55 13% 49%  
56 3% 36%  
57 0.8% 33%  
58 31% 32%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 5% 99.3%  
44 0.8% 94%  
45 51% 93% Median
46 8% 42%  
47 31% 34%  
48 0% 3%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.7% Last Result
43 4% 97%  
44 46% 93% Median
45 9% 47%  
46 35% 38%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 41% 99.9%  
39 18% 59% Median
40 5% 41%  
41 0.4% 36%  
42 2% 35%  
43 32% 34%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 2% 100%  
33 0.1% 98% Last Result
34 38% 98%  
35 9% 60% Median
36 12% 51%  
37 35% 39%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.3% 0.6%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.5% 99.9%  
28 2% 98% Last Result
29 54% 97% Median
30 8% 43%  
31 29% 35%  
32 3% 6%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 4% 99.8%  
24 40% 95%  
25 13% 55% Median
26 6% 43%  
27 5% 36%  
28 31% 31%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations