Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 26–29 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 20.1% | 18.6–21.8% | 18.2–22.3% | 17.8–22.7% | 17.1–23.5% | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 12.0% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.4–13.7% | 10.1–14.1% | 9.6–14.8% | 
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.1–11.5% | 8.8–11.9% | 8.5–12.2% | 8.0–12.9% | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.4% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% | 
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.7–10.1% | 6.3–10.7% | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% | 
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.9–7.5% | 
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% | 
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.3–3.7% | 
| DENK | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 31 | 29–32 | 29–34 | 28–35 | 26–35 | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 18 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 
| GroenLinks | 14 | 15 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 12–19 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 14 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–20 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 14 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 
| 50Plus | 4 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 
| DENK | 3 | 2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98% | |
| 29 | 13% | 96% | |
| 30 | 32% | 83% | |
| 31 | 15% | 51% | Median | 
| 32 | 30% | 36% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 6% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 2% | 5% | |
| 35 | 3% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | 
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 24% | 95% | |
| 17 | 14% | 71% | |
| 18 | 26% | 57% | Median | 
| 19 | 8% | 31% | |
| 20 | 20% | 23% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 15% | 96% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 36% | 81% | Median | 
| 16 | 34% | 45% | |
| 17 | 5% | 11% | |
| 18 | 3% | 6% | |
| 19 | 3% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 14% | 98% | |
| 14 | 35% | 84% | Median | 
| 15 | 21% | 49% | |
| 16 | 10% | 28% | |
| 17 | 11% | 17% | |
| 18 | 5% | 6% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result | 
| 20 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 10 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 10% | 94% | |
| 13 | 16% | 83% | |
| 14 | 31% | 68% | Median | 
| 15 | 6% | 36% | |
| 16 | 30% | 30% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | 
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 10 | 7% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 27% | 92% | |
| 12 | 15% | 64% | Median | 
| 13 | 22% | 49% | |
| 14 | 24% | 27% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 17% | 97% | |
| 10 | 34% | 80% | Median | 
| 11 | 36% | 45% | |
| 12 | 5% | 9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 21% | 97% | |
| 8 | 30% | 76% | Median | 
| 9 | 32% | 47% | |
| 10 | 13% | 14% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 36% | 99.0% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 17% | 63% | Median | 
| 7 | 16% | 47% | |
| 8 | 30% | 31% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 41% | 93% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 42% | 51% | Median | 
| 7 | 8% | 10% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | 
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 11% | 99.8% | Last Result | 
| 5 | 50% | 89% | Median | 
| 6 | 12% | 39% | |
| 7 | 21% | 27% | |
| 8 | 5% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | 
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 19% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 35% | 80% | Last Result, Median | 
| 4 | 43% | 46% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | 
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 37% | 92% | |
| 2 | 54% | 55% | Median | 
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.4% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 90 | 80 | 98.6% | 77–83 | 77–84 | 76–85 | 74–86 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 85 | 79 | 90% | 75–81 | 75–82 | 74–85 | 72–85 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 77 | 88% | 75–80 | 73–81 | 73–82 | 72–84 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid | 74 | 73 | 21% | 72–77 | 69–78 | 69–78 | 69–81 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 61 | 73 | 8% | 70–75 | 67–76 | 67–77 | 67–78 | 
| GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 80 | 70 | 3% | 69–75 | 68–75 | 67–76 | 65–78 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus | 58 | 69 | 0.2% | 67–72 | 63–73 | 63–74 | 63–75 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 66 | 0% | 64–70 | 62–71 | 62–71 | 61–72 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 76 | 64 | 0% | 62–67 | 62–68 | 60–71 | 58–71 | 
| GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 66 | 63 | 0% | 60–66 | 59–67 | 59–69 | 57–70 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 54 | 63 | 0% | 61–66 | 58–68 | 58–68 | 58–69 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 60 | 0% | 56–62 | 56–63 | 56–63 | 54–65 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 71 | 58 | 0% | 55–61 | 55–62 | 55–63 | 53–64 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 61 | 57 | 0% | 54–60 | 53–60 | 52–63 | 51–63 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid | 72 | 55 | 0% | 53–59 | 53–60 | 53–61 | 51–63 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 45 | 0% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–49 | 41–51 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 46 | 0% | 42–46 | 41–47 | 40–49 | 39–49 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 47 | 42 | 0% | 38–43 | 37–44 | 37–45 | 36–47 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 33 | 35 | 0% | 32–39 | 32–39 | 31–39 | 30–41 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 38 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 25–30 | 25–32 | 23–33 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 28 | 30 | 0% | 26–31 | 25–32 | 25–32 | 24–34 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 76 | 2% | 98.6% | Majority | 
| 77 | 12% | 97% | |
| 78 | 8% | 84% | Median | 
| 79 | 18% | 76% | |
| 80 | 34% | 58% | |
| 81 | 7% | 24% | |
| 82 | 5% | 17% | |
| 83 | 4% | 12% | |
| 84 | 4% | 8% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 2% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result | 
| 91 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 7% | 96% | |
| 76 | 3% | 90% | Majority | 
| 77 | 14% | 86% | Median | 
| 78 | 19% | 72% | |
| 79 | 25% | 54% | |
| 80 | 19% | 29% | |
| 81 | 5% | 10% | |
| 82 | 2% | 5% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 85 | 3% | 3% | Last Result | 
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 74 | 2% | 93% | |
| 75 | 3% | 91% | |
| 76 | 32% | 88% | Median, Majority | 
| 77 | 30% | 56% | Last Result | 
| 78 | 5% | 26% | |
| 79 | 3% | 22% | |
| 80 | 13% | 19% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 82 | 3% | 5% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 71 | 2% | 92% | |
| 72 | 4% | 91% | |
| 73 | 42% | 87% | Median | 
| 74 | 18% | 45% | Last Result | 
| 75 | 6% | 27% | |
| 76 | 10% | 21% | Majority | 
| 77 | 6% | 11% | |
| 78 | 4% | 6% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 69 | 2% | 93% | |
| 70 | 2% | 91% | |
| 71 | 31% | 89% | Median | 
| 72 | 6% | 57% | |
| 73 | 28% | 51% | |
| 74 | 5% | 23% | |
| 75 | 11% | 19% | |
| 76 | 5% | 8% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 78 | 2% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 7% | 94% | Median | 
| 70 | 38% | 87% | |
| 71 | 7% | 49% | |
| 72 | 13% | 43% | |
| 73 | 4% | 30% | |
| 74 | 3% | 26% | |
| 75 | 19% | 23% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result | 
| 81 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 66 | 2% | 93% | |
| 67 | 3% | 91% | |
| 68 | 19% | 88% | Median | 
| 69 | 42% | 69% | |
| 70 | 6% | 27% | |
| 71 | 9% | 22% | |
| 72 | 7% | 12% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 75 | 2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 63 | 2% | 93% | |
| 64 | 2% | 91% | |
| 65 | 4% | 89% | |
| 66 | 46% | 85% | Median | 
| 67 | 6% | 38% | |
| 68 | 13% | 33% | |
| 69 | 8% | 20% | |
| 70 | 4% | 12% | |
| 71 | 5% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 62 | 14% | 96% | |
| 63 | 13% | 83% | Median | 
| 64 | 25% | 70% | |
| 65 | 28% | 45% | |
| 66 | 5% | 17% | |
| 67 | 2% | 12% | |
| 68 | 5% | 10% | |
| 69 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 71 | 3% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority | 
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 7% | 98% | |
| 60 | 2% | 91% | |
| 61 | 9% | 89% | Median | 
| 62 | 22% | 80% | |
| 63 | 21% | 58% | |
| 64 | 11% | 37% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 25% | |
| 66 | 17% | 24% | Last Result | 
| 67 | 2% | 7% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 61 | 2% | 91% | |
| 62 | 16% | 90% | |
| 63 | 26% | 73% | Median | 
| 64 | 24% | 47% | |
| 65 | 10% | 23% | |
| 66 | 3% | 13% | |
| 67 | 4% | 9% | |
| 68 | 4% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 56 | 15% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 83% | |
| 58 | 5% | 81% | |
| 59 | 11% | 77% | Median | 
| 60 | 28% | 66% | |
| 61 | 20% | 38% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 9% | 18% | |
| 63 | 7% | 9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 9% | 98% | |
| 56 | 25% | 88% | |
| 57 | 13% | 64% | Median | 
| 58 | 6% | 50% | |
| 59 | 11% | 44% | |
| 60 | 21% | 33% | |
| 61 | 6% | 11% | |
| 62 | 2% | 5% | |
| 63 | 3% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 2% | 96% | |
| 54 | 4% | 94% | |
| 55 | 12% | 90% | |
| 56 | 12% | 78% | |
| 57 | 27% | 66% | Median | 
| 58 | 3% | 39% | |
| 59 | 18% | 35% | |
| 60 | 14% | 17% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 3% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 3% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 14% | 99.0% | |
| 54 | 14% | 85% | |
| 55 | 25% | 72% | Median | 
| 56 | 5% | 47% | |
| 57 | 18% | 42% | |
| 58 | 6% | 24% | |
| 59 | 12% | 18% | |
| 60 | 3% | 6% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 44 | 21% | 90% | |
| 45 | 19% | 69% | Median | 
| 46 | 21% | 50% | |
| 47 | 6% | 28% | |
| 48 | 13% | 22% | |
| 49 | 7% | 9% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.5% | Last Result | 
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 41 | 4% | 96% | |
| 42 | 3% | 92% | Last Result | 
| 43 | 18% | 90% | |
| 44 | 5% | 71% | |
| 45 | 8% | 66% | Median | 
| 46 | 52% | 59% | |
| 47 | 4% | 7% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 49 | 3% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 3% | 92% | |
| 39 | 2% | 88% | |
| 40 | 12% | 87% | Median | 
| 41 | 15% | 75% | |
| 42 | 39% | 59% | |
| 43 | 15% | 21% | |
| 44 | 2% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Last Result | 
| 48 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 32 | 11% | 97% | |
| 33 | 17% | 86% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 5% | 69% | Median | 
| 35 | 20% | 64% | |
| 36 | 14% | 44% | |
| 37 | 6% | 30% | |
| 38 | 4% | 24% | |
| 39 | 18% | 20% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 25 | 9% | 98% | |
| 26 | 25% | 89% | Median | 
| 27 | 24% | 63% | |
| 28 | 24% | 39% | |
| 29 | 6% | 15% | |
| 30 | 5% | 9% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 2% | 91% | |
| 27 | 15% | 90% | |
| 28 | 20% | 74% | Last Result, Median | 
| 29 | 4% | 55% | |
| 30 | 25% | 50% | |
| 31 | 19% | 26% | |
| 32 | 4% | 6% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
 - Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
 - Fieldwork period: 26–29 July 2019
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1028
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 1.69%