Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 29 July–4 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 27 26–30 25–30 25–30 25–31
Forum voor Democratie 2 20 19–22 19–22 19–22 18–23
Partij van de Arbeid 9 19 18–21 18–21 17–22 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–18 15–18 15–19 14–19
GroenLinks 14 15 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–17
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–13
Democraten 66 19 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Socialistische Partij 14 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
50Plus 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.8%  
25 6% 99.7%  
26 14% 93%  
27 29% 79% Median
28 14% 50%  
29 17% 36%  
30 18% 19%  
31 0.9% 0.9%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 9% 98%  
20 51% 89% Median
21 23% 38%  
22 14% 15%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 20% 97%  
19 28% 77% Median
20 29% 48%  
21 17% 20%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100%  
15 36% 98%  
16 32% 62% Median
17 15% 30%  
18 11% 14%  
19 3% 3% Last Result
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 4% 100%  
14 23% 96% Last Result
15 53% 73% Median
16 12% 20%  
17 8% 9%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.1% 100%  
10 25% 98.9%  
11 53% 74% Median
12 12% 21%  
13 8% 8%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 27% 98%  
10 42% 71% Median
11 28% 29%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 19% 98%  
7 51% 80% Median
8 27% 29%  
9 1.2% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 30% 98%  
7 52% 68% Median
8 15% 16%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 32% 99.5% Last Result
6 55% 68% Median
7 12% 13%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.1% 100%  
4 32% 98.9% Last Result
5 45% 67% Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 50% 100%  
3 47% 50% Last Result, Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 46% 100%  
2 54% 54% Median
3 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 79 95% 77–81 76–81 75–82 74–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 79% 74–78 74–79 74–80 73–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 75 25% 73–77 72–78 72–78 71–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 75 46% 73–77 73–77 72–78 71–80
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 73 18% 72–76 71–76 71–76 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 71 0% 69–73 68–73 68–74 67–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 69 0% 67–71 67–71 66–72 65–73
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 64–69 64–69 63–70 63–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 64–68 64–68 63–69 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 64 0% 63–66 62–66 61–67 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 64 0% 61–65 60–65 59–66 59–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 60 0% 58–61 57–62 56–62 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 58 0% 54–59 54–59 53–60 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 55 0% 53–56 53–57 52–57 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 54 0% 52–55 51–56 50–56 50–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 44–49 44–49 44–50 43–50
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 45 0% 44–48 43–48 42–48 42–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 44 0% 42–45 42–46 41–47 40–47
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 41 0% 39–43 39–44 37–45 37–45
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 35 0% 34–37 33–38 32–39 32–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 25–27 25–28 24–28 23–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 2% 100%  
75 2% 98%  
76 0.8% 95% Majority
77 10% 95%  
78 15% 84% Median
79 25% 69%  
80 26% 44%  
81 15% 19%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.8% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.9% 99.7%  
74 13% 98.9%  
75 8% 86%  
76 13% 79% Median, Majority
77 26% 66% Last Result
78 30% 40%  
79 6% 9%  
80 2% 3%  
81 1.0% 1.0%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 1.1% 99.9%  
72 4% 98.7%  
73 23% 95%  
74 19% 72% Median
75 28% 53%  
76 15% 25% Majority
77 2% 10%  
78 7% 8%  
79 1.0% 1.0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 2% 99.4%  
73 17% 97%  
74 6% 80% Last Result, Median
75 28% 74%  
76 23% 46% Majority
77 18% 23%  
78 3% 5%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.7% 0.7%  
81 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 1.0% 99.5%  
71 5% 98%  
72 33% 93%  
73 16% 60% Median
74 22% 44%  
75 4% 22%  
76 16% 18% Majority
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.7% 0.8%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 2% 99.7%  
68 3% 98%  
69 14% 95%  
70 28% 81% Median
71 26% 52%  
72 14% 27%  
73 10% 12%  
74 2% 3%  
75 1.0% 1.0%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 100%  
65 1.0% 99.7%  
66 4% 98.7%  
67 12% 95%  
68 10% 83% Median
69 36% 73%  
70 13% 36%  
71 19% 23%  
72 2% 3%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.4% 100%  
63 4% 99.5%  
64 18% 96%  
65 18% 78%  
66 11% 60% Last Result, Median
67 26% 50%  
68 6% 24%  
69 14% 17%  
70 2% 3%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.9% 99.7%  
63 4% 98.8%  
64 17% 95%  
65 14% 78% Median
66 34% 64%  
67 19% 30%  
68 7% 11%  
69 2% 3%  
70 1.1% 1.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.9% 99.8%  
61 3% 98.9%  
62 6% 96%  
63 23% 90% Median
64 24% 67%  
65 18% 42%  
66 20% 25%  
67 2% 5%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 3% 99.8%  
60 5% 97%  
61 10% 92% Last Result
62 3% 81% Median
63 19% 78%  
64 43% 60%  
65 12% 17%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.5% 2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 3% 99.9%  
57 5% 97%  
58 4% 92%  
59 36% 88% Median
60 25% 52%  
61 21% 27%  
62 4% 6%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.6%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 4% 99.8%  
54 10% 95%  
55 6% 85%  
56 16% 79% Median
57 12% 64%  
58 10% 52%  
59 40% 42%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0% 99.8%  
51 0.7% 99.8%  
52 2% 99.1%  
53 19% 97%  
54 11% 78% Median
55 32% 68%  
56 30% 36%  
57 5% 7%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.8% 1.0%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 3% 99.8%  
51 2% 97%  
52 9% 95%  
53 16% 85% Median
54 41% 69%  
55 21% 28%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.9% 0.9%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100% Last Result
43 1.3% 99.8%  
44 9% 98%  
45 17% 90%  
46 5% 73% Median
47 10% 68%  
48 26% 59%  
49 29% 32%  
50 3% 3%  
51 0.3% 0.3%  
52 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 4% 99.9%  
43 4% 96%  
44 17% 92%  
45 33% 76% Median
46 19% 42%  
47 6% 23% Last Result
48 15% 17%  
49 0.7% 2%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.0%  
42 10% 96%  
43 25% 86% Median
44 26% 61%  
45 30% 35%  
46 3% 6%  
47 3% 3%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 100%  
37 2% 99.8%  
38 0.3% 97%  
39 12% 97%  
40 29% 85%  
41 11% 56% Median
42 6% 45%  
43 31% 40%  
44 5% 8%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 3% 99.7%  
33 4% 97%  
34 26% 93%  
35 20% 67% Median
36 12% 47%  
37 28% 36%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 1.5% 1.5%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.1% 100%  
24 3% 98.9%  
25 39% 96%  
26 15% 57% Median
27 33% 42%  
28 8% 9%  
29 0.8% 2%  
30 0.9% 0.9%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations