Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 19–24 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 27–29 26–29 26–29 25–30
Partij van de Arbeid 9 20 19–21 19–21 18–21 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–17 15–17 15–18 14–19
Forum voor Democratie 2 15 15–17 15–18 15–19 14–19
GroenLinks 14 15 15–17 14–17 14–17 13–17
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 11–15
Democraten 66 19 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
50Plus 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 6% 99.5%  
27 28% 93%  
28 48% 65% Median
29 16% 18%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.4%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 2% 98%  
19 22% 96%  
20 61% 73% Median
21 11% 12%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 46% 99.3%  
16 27% 53% Median
17 24% 27%  
18 2% 3%  
19 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.9%  
15 64% 99.0% Median
16 18% 35%  
17 11% 17%  
18 2% 6%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 9% 99.3% Last Result
15 43% 91% Median
16 33% 48%  
17 14% 15%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 7% 100%  
12 15% 93%  
13 58% 78% Median
14 13% 20%  
15 7% 7%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.2% 100%  
10 21% 98.7%  
11 63% 78% Median
12 4% 15%  
13 11% 11%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100%  
7 14% 96%  
8 57% 83% Median
9 25% 26%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100% Last Result
6 21% 98.9%  
7 69% 77% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 17% 98% Last Result
6 78% 81% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.7% 100% Last Result
5 28% 99.3%  
6 44% 71% Median
7 27% 27%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 32% 99.4%  
3 67% 67% Last Result, Median
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 58% 100% Median
2 42% 42%  
3 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 80 99.9% 78–84 77–84 77–84 77–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 75 44% 74–79 73–79 72–79 72–79
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 76 61% 74–78 73–78 72–78 72–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 73 22% 72–76 72–77 72–78 71–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 72 4% 70–75 70–75 70–76 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 66 0% 65–69 65–69 65–71 65–71
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 68 0% 66–71 65–71 64–71 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 65 0% 63–67 63–67 63–69 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 63 0% 61–66 61–66 61–66 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 59–63 59–63 59–64 59–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 60 0% 59–63 58–63 58–63 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 59 0% 57–61 57–62 57–62 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 59 0% 56–62 56–62 56–62 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 56 0% 55–59 54–59 53–60 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 54 0% 53–57 52–57 52–57 52–58
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 46 0% 46–50 44–50 44–50 43–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 46–49 45–49 45–49 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 43 0% 42–46 42–46 42–46 41–48
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 41 0% 40–43 40–43 40–43 38–45
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 35 0% 35–37 34–37 34–37 33–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 26–29 26–29 25–29 24–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9% Majority
77 5% 99.8%  
78 6% 94%  
79 22% 89%  
80 37% 67%  
81 5% 30% Median
82 14% 25%  
83 0.8% 11%  
84 10% 10%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 4% 99.9%  
73 1.3% 96%  
74 6% 95%  
75 44% 88%  
76 4% 44% Median, Majority
77 16% 40%  
78 12% 24%  
79 12% 12%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 4% 99.6%  
73 2% 96%  
74 9% 94%  
75 24% 85%  
76 16% 61% Median, Majority
77 21% 45%  
78 23% 24%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 1.3% 100%  
72 42% 98.6%  
73 12% 57% Median
74 16% 45%  
75 6% 29%  
76 15% 22% Majority
77 3% 7% Last Result
78 3% 4%  
79 0.9% 1.1%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.5% 100%  
70 20% 99.4%  
71 23% 79%  
72 16% 56% Median
73 17% 40%  
74 6% 23% Last Result
75 13% 17%  
76 3% 4% Majority
77 1.0% 1.3%  
78 0% 0.3%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 30% 99.6%  
66 25% 70% Median
67 17% 45%  
68 17% 29%  
69 8% 12%  
70 0.7% 3%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 4% 99.7%  
65 3% 96%  
66 4% 93% Last Result
67 28% 89%  
68 33% 61% Median
69 3% 27%  
70 13% 24%  
71 11% 11%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 100%  
63 19% 99.8%  
64 11% 81%  
65 31% 69% Median
66 16% 39%  
67 19% 23%  
68 0.9% 4%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.6%  
61 9% 99.1% Last Result
62 22% 90%  
63 27% 68%  
64 13% 42% Median
65 15% 29%  
66 13% 13%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 41% 99.8%  
60 12% 58% Median
61 7% 46%  
62 26% 39%  
63 8% 13%  
64 3% 5%  
65 0.3% 1.5%  
66 1.0% 1.2%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.4% 100%  
58 5% 99.6%  
59 22% 94%  
60 31% 72%  
61 15% 41% Median
62 13% 26%  
63 11% 13%  
64 1.5% 2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 100%  
57 18% 99.9%  
58 25% 82%  
59 18% 57% Median
60 5% 39%  
61 29% 35%  
62 4% 6%  
63 0.3% 2%  
64 0.9% 1.2%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.7%  
56 10% 98%  
57 4% 88%  
58 32% 84%  
59 36% 52% Median
60 5% 16%  
61 0.6% 11% Last Result
62 10% 11%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 3% 100%  
54 3% 97%  
55 20% 93%  
56 27% 74%  
57 16% 47% Median
58 16% 31%  
59 12% 15%  
60 2% 3%  
61 1.2% 1.2%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9%  
52 5% 99.6%  
53 22% 95%  
54 29% 72%  
55 4% 43% Median
56 26% 39%  
57 12% 14%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 1.2% 99.9%  
44 6% 98.7%  
45 0.9% 93%  
46 50% 92%  
47 27% 42% Last Result, Median
48 2% 16%  
49 3% 13%  
50 11% 11%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100% Last Result
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 6% 99.3%  
46 9% 93%  
47 32% 84%  
48 26% 53% Median
49 25% 27%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 27% 99.1%  
43 28% 73%  
44 15% 44% Median
45 15% 29%  
46 13% 14%  
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.9% 0.9%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.5% 100%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 8% 98%  
41 59% 89%  
42 5% 30% Median
43 24% 25%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.5%  
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.4% 100%  
33 1.4% 99.6%  
34 6% 98%  
35 48% 92%  
36 18% 44% Median
37 24% 26%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.7% 0.8%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.7% 100%  
25 4% 99.3%  
26 45% 95%  
27 23% 50% Median
28 13% 27%  
29 13% 14%  
30 1.2% 1.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations