Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 29 August–3 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.6% 19.3–21.9% 19.0–22.3% 18.7–22.6% 18.1–23.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.9% 10.0–11.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.5–12.5% 9.0–13.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.2% 9.3–11.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.8–11.8% 8.4–12.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.9% 9.0–10.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.6–11.5% 8.2–12.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 8.7% 7.8–9.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.4–10.2% 7.0–10.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.4% 6.6–8.3% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.8% 5.9–9.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.3% 6.5–8.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.7% 5.8–9.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 5.5% 4.8–6.3% 4.7–6.5% 4.5–6.7% 4.2–7.1%
50Plus 3.1% 4.8% 4.2–5.5% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.1–5.7%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.9% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1%
DENK 2.1% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 28–35 28–35 28–35 28–36
GroenLinks 14 15 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 15–16 14–17 13–18 13–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14–17 13–17 13–17 12–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 13 12–15 11–15 10–15 10–16
Democraten 66 19 12 10–13 10–13 9–13 9–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 10–12 9–13 9–14 9–14
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 9 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
50Plus 4 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 4–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 10% 99.6%  
29 1.0% 89%  
30 13% 88%  
31 13% 75%  
32 9% 62%  
33 30% 53% Last Result, Median
34 1.4% 23%  
35 21% 21%  
36 0.7% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.9%  
14 8% 99.1% Last Result
15 54% 91% Median
16 6% 37%  
17 11% 32%  
18 11% 21%  
19 9% 9%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 3% 96%  
15 53% 93% Median
16 31% 41%  
17 7% 9%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.7%  
13 5% 99.3%  
14 46% 94% Median
15 23% 48%  
16 14% 25%  
17 9% 10%  
18 0.5% 0.9%  
19 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 4% 100%  
11 1.3% 96%  
12 12% 95%  
13 49% 83% Median
14 6% 33%  
15 26% 28%  
16 1.4% 1.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 5% 99.8%  
10 10% 95%  
11 18% 85%  
12 35% 66% Median
13 29% 31%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 9% 99.8%  
10 27% 90%  
11 39% 63% Median
12 14% 24%  
13 6% 10%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 7% 99.7%  
8 34% 93%  
9 37% 59% Median
10 16% 22%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 4% 100%  
7 29% 96%  
8 9% 67%  
9 46% 58% Median
10 12% 12%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 4% 100%  
6 34% 96%  
7 46% 63% Median
8 11% 17%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.8% 100%  
5 27% 99.2% Last Result
6 52% 72% Median
7 13% 20%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 8% 99.6% Last Result
4 71% 92% Median
5 16% 22%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 46% 99.8%  
2 53% 54% Median
3 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 84 100% 80–85 80–85 77–86 77–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 84 99.8% 79–85 78–85 78–85 77–87
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 75 30% 73–78 72–79 71–79 70–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 36% 72–79 71–79 71–79 70–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 71 2% 68–75 67–75 66–75 66–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 69 0% 67–70 65–71 65–73 63–73
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 64–70 63–70 62–71 62–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 68 0% 63–69 62–69 62–69 60–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 65 0% 61–66 61–67 61–69 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 62 0% 59–66 59–66 59–66 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 62 0% 60–64 57–65 57–66 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 60 0% 56–65 56–65 56–65 54–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 60 0% 55–63 55–63 54–63 54–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 60 0% 55–62 54–62 54–62 52–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 55–60 53–60 53–62 52–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 44–51 43–51 43–51 43–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 47 0% 44–50 44–50 43–50 42–51
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 42 0% 40–43 39–45 37–45 37–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 38 0% 37–41 37–41 37–42 35–43
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 30 0% 29–32 28–33 28–33 27–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 2% 99.9%  
78 0.5% 97%  
79 2% 97%  
80 12% 95%  
81 7% 83%  
82 10% 76%  
83 8% 66% Median
84 45% 58%  
85 8% 13%  
86 3% 5%  
87 0.9% 1.4%  
88 0.4% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.8% Majority
77 0.6% 99.5%  
78 7% 98.9%  
79 8% 92%  
80 8% 84%  
81 9% 76%  
82 12% 67%  
83 3% 55% Median
84 33% 52%  
85 17% 19% Last Result
86 0.8% 1.4%  
87 0.5% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 3% 99.3%  
72 5% 96%  
73 18% 91%  
74 3% 73% Median
75 41% 70%  
76 9% 30% Majority
77 5% 21%  
78 10% 16%  
79 4% 6%  
80 0.9% 1.3% Last Result
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 2% 99.7%  
71 4% 98%  
72 7% 94%  
73 9% 87%  
74 10% 78%  
75 32% 68% Median
76 9% 36% Majority
77 3% 28% Last Result
78 5% 25%  
79 18% 20%  
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.6% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 3% 99.5%  
67 1.3% 96%  
68 18% 95%  
69 5% 76%  
70 4% 72%  
71 29% 68% Median
72 12% 39%  
73 4% 27%  
74 3% 23% Last Result
75 18% 20%  
76 0.4% 2% Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 0.8% 99.5%  
65 6% 98.7%  
66 2% 93%  
67 11% 91%  
68 11% 80%  
69 34% 69% Median
70 27% 35%  
71 4% 8%  
72 0.7% 4%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.4% 100%  
62 4% 99.6%  
63 3% 95%  
64 7% 93%  
65 20% 86% Median
66 36% 65% Last Result
67 6% 29%  
68 7% 23%  
69 3% 16%  
70 9% 13%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.9% 100%  
61 0.5% 99.1%  
62 5% 98.6%  
63 8% 93%  
64 2% 86%  
65 8% 84%  
66 12% 75%  
67 10% 64%  
68 5% 53% Median
69 48% 49%  
70 0.6% 1.0%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9% Last Result
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.6% 99.4%  
61 10% 98.8%  
62 2% 89%  
63 14% 87%  
64 6% 73%  
65 34% 66% Median
66 24% 32%  
67 4% 8%  
68 1.4% 4%  
69 1.5% 3%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.5% 99.4%  
59 9% 98.9%  
60 13% 90%  
61 12% 77% Last Result
62 32% 65% Median
63 4% 32%  
64 6% 28%  
65 3% 22%  
66 19% 19%  
67 0.7% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 6% 99.8% Last Result
58 2% 94%  
59 2% 92%  
60 4% 90%  
61 24% 87%  
62 29% 63% Median
63 3% 34%  
64 26% 31%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.4% 3%  
67 1.0% 1.2%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.4% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 0.6% 99.3%  
56 11% 98.7%  
57 4% 88%  
58 13% 84%  
59 7% 71%  
60 30% 64% Median
61 7% 34%  
62 5% 27%  
63 3% 23%  
64 2% 19%  
65 17% 18%  
66 0.7% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 3% 99.6%  
55 10% 97%  
56 4% 87%  
57 15% 83%  
58 3% 68%  
59 12% 64%  
60 5% 52% Median
61 29% 47% Last Result
62 0.6% 18%  
63 18% 18%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.6% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.4%  
54 5% 99.2%  
55 8% 94%  
56 14% 86%  
57 4% 72%  
58 9% 68%  
59 7% 59% Median
60 31% 52%  
61 3% 21%  
62 17% 18%  
63 0.7% 0.9%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 5% 99.5%  
54 1.3% 94% Last Result
55 6% 93%  
56 16% 87%  
57 7% 71%  
58 31% 64% Median
59 4% 34%  
60 26% 30%  
61 0.9% 4%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.1% 1.0%  
64 0.9% 0.9%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
43 7% 99.5%  
44 6% 93%  
45 5% 87%  
46 14% 81%  
47 10% 67%  
48 30% 58% Median
49 5% 28%  
50 5% 23%  
51 17% 18%  
52 0.7% 0.8%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.7%  
42 0.6% 99.6%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 16% 97%  
45 9% 81%  
46 8% 72%  
47 32% 64% Median
48 10% 32%  
49 3% 22%  
50 18% 20%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 3% 99.9%  
38 2% 97%  
39 1.3% 96%  
40 10% 94%  
41 14% 84% Median
42 30% 71%  
43 31% 40%  
44 4% 10%  
45 4% 5%  
46 0.8% 0.9%  
47 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
48 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.3% 100%  
35 1.2% 99.6%  
36 0.4% 98%  
37 11% 98%  
38 60% 87% Median
39 6% 28%  
40 5% 21%  
41 12% 16%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.0% 1.3%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.7%  
28 5% 99.0% Last Result
29 38% 94% Median
30 11% 56%  
31 32% 45%  
32 4% 13%  
33 7% 9%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 2% 100%  
23 3% 98%  
24 5% 95%  
25 11% 90%  
26 9% 79% Median
27 51% 70%  
28 13% 18%  
29 5% 6%  
30 0.2% 1.0%  
31 0.8% 0.8%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

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