Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 9–14 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.7% 17.8–19.6% 17.5–19.9% 17.3–20.1% 16.9–20.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 29 27–30 27–31 27–31 26–31
Partij van de Arbeid 9 20 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–17 15–18 14–18 14–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 14 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–16
GroenLinks 14 13 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 15 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–16
Democraten 66 19 10 10–12 10–12 9–12 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–9 7–10 7–10 7–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 4–8
50Plus 4 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 15% 98%  
28 6% 83%  
29 37% 78% Median
30 36% 41%  
31 5% 5%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 8% 98%  
19 35% 89%  
20 42% 54% Median
21 12% 13%  
22 0.7% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 3% 99.8%  
15 21% 97%  
16 47% 76% Median
17 22% 29%  
18 6% 7%  
19 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 45% 98%  
14 20% 53% Median
15 27% 32%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 48% 98% Median
14 27% 50% Last Result
15 22% 23%  
16 1.0% 1.3%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 16% 98%  
14 26% 82%  
15 23% 56% Median
16 32% 33%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 5% 100%  
10 57% 95% Median
11 19% 38%  
12 17% 19%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 5% 100%  
8 23% 95%  
9 64% 72% Median
10 8% 8%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100% Last Result
6 25% 99.3%  
7 60% 74% Median
8 14% 14%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 18% 99.5% Last Result
6 74% 81% Median
7 6% 7%  
8 1.5% 1.5%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100% Last Result
5 35% 99.7%  
6 57% 65% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 23% 99.9%  
3 74% 77% Last Result, Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 38% 100%  
2 61% 62% Median
3 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 81 100% 79–83 79–84 79–84 78–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 75 40% 74–77 73–78 73–80 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 48% 73–77 73–77 72–79 71–79
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 74 31% 73–76 73–77 73–78 72–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 74 5% 72–75 71–76 70–77 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 68 0% 65–69 65–69 64–69 63–70
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 64–68 64–69 64–69 63–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 64 0% 63–66 62–67 62–69 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 66 0% 63–67 63–67 63–68 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 61 0% 60–63 59–65 59–65 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 62 0% 60–63 59–63 58–64 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 59 0% 58–61 57–61 56–63 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 60 0% 58–61 57–62 57–62 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 59 0% 58–62 57–62 56–62 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 55 0% 54–58 54–58 53–59 53–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 47–50 46–51 45–51 45–51
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 46 0% 45–48 45–48 45–49 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 45 0% 44–46 43–48 42–48 41–48
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 41 0% 41–44 40–45 39–45 38–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 35 0% 35–37 34–38 34–39 33–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 25–28 25–29 25–29 25–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 10% 99.5%  
80 32% 89%  
81 24% 57% Median
82 11% 34%  
83 14% 22%  
84 7% 8%  
85 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
86 0.5% 0.5%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 2% 99.9%  
73 8% 98%  
74 30% 90% Median
75 20% 60%  
76 15% 40% Majority
77 15% 25%  
78 5% 9%  
79 1.0% 5%  
80 4% 4%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.8% 99.6%  
72 2% 98.8%  
73 9% 97%  
74 6% 87%  
75 34% 81%  
76 34% 48% Median, Majority
77 9% 14% Last Result
78 0.5% 5%  
79 4% 4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.6% 99.8%  
73 31% 99.2%  
74 26% 68% Median
75 12% 42%  
76 22% 31% Majority
77 4% 9%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.3% 1.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.9% 99.9%  
70 1.5% 99.0%  
71 3% 97%  
72 11% 95%  
73 15% 84%  
74 50% 68% Last Result, Median
75 13% 19%  
76 0.7% 5% Majority
77 4% 4%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 2% 99.8%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 18% 97%  
66 22% 79%  
67 6% 57%  
68 15% 51% Median
69 35% 36%  
70 1.0% 1.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 30% 99.5%  
65 16% 69% Median
66 20% 54% Last Result
67 18% 34%  
68 11% 16%  
69 4% 5%  
70 0.6% 1.5%  
71 0.8% 0.9%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 1.3% 99.9% Last Result
62 7% 98.5%  
63 3% 92%  
64 39% 89%  
65 24% 50% Median
66 19% 25%  
67 1.5% 6%  
68 0.4% 4%  
69 4% 4%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 2% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 98%  
63 11% 98%  
64 11% 87%  
65 24% 76%  
66 13% 52% Median
67 34% 39%  
68 4% 5%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.6% 100%  
59 7% 99.4%  
60 4% 92%  
61 50% 88% Median
62 14% 38%  
63 16% 24%  
64 2% 8%  
65 6% 7%  
66 0.4% 0.4%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
58 2% 99.3%  
59 6% 97%  
60 32% 91%  
61 8% 59%  
62 7% 51% Median
63 39% 44%  
64 4% 5%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 2% 99.8%  
56 2% 98%  
57 5% 96%  
58 35% 92%  
59 17% 56% Median
60 27% 39%  
61 7% 12%  
62 0.7% 5%  
63 4% 4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100% Last Result
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 1.4% 99.3%  
57 6% 98%  
58 6% 92%  
59 32% 85%  
60 5% 53% Median
61 40% 48%  
62 7% 7%  
63 0.1% 0.5%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 4% 99.9%  
57 5% 96%  
58 36% 90%  
59 7% 54% Median
60 33% 47%  
61 3% 14% Last Result
62 11% 12%  
63 0.2% 0.6%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 3% 99.5%  
54 9% 96%  
55 48% 87% Median
56 13% 38%  
57 10% 26%  
58 11% 16%  
59 5% 5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 4% 99.9%  
46 3% 96%  
47 7% 92%  
48 41% 85%  
49 8% 44% Median
50 31% 36%  
51 5% 6%  
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.5%  
45 44% 98.9%  
46 21% 55% Median
47 9% 34% Last Result
48 22% 25%  
49 0.9% 3%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 1.3% 99.9%  
42 2% 98.5%  
43 3% 96%  
44 17% 93%  
45 45% 76% Median
46 22% 31%  
47 0.7% 9%  
48 8% 9%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 3% 99.5%  
40 4% 97%  
41 62% 92%  
42 15% 31% Median
43 5% 15%  
44 4% 10%  
45 5% 6%  
46 1.5% 1.5%  
47 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.6%  
34 6% 98.8%  
35 52% 93%  
36 24% 41% Median
37 7% 17%  
38 5% 10%  
39 4% 4%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 14% 99.6%  
26 44% 86% Median
27 14% 42%  
28 21% 28%  
29 6% 7%  
30 0.5% 0.8%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations