Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 23–28 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.7% 17.8–19.6% 17.5–19.9% 17.3–20.1% 16.9–20.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 28–29 28–30 27–30 27–31
Partij van de Arbeid 9 21 20–21 20–21 19–21 18–24
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 16–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 15 15–16 15–17 14–17 13–17
GroenLinks 14 13 12–13 12–14 12–14 11–15
Forum voor Democratie 2 13 12–13 12–14 12–14 11–15
Democraten 66 19 11 11–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 3% 99.5%  
28 46% 96% Median
29 43% 50%  
30 6% 7%  
31 1.1% 1.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.7% 100%  
19 4% 99.3%  
20 6% 95%  
21 88% 89% Median
22 0.6% 2%  
23 0.6% 1.2%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.7% 100%  
15 8% 99.3%  
16 77% 91% Median
17 11% 13%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 1.0% 98%  
15 85% 97% Median
16 5% 12%  
17 6% 7%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.8% 100%  
12 38% 99.2%  
13 51% 61% Median
14 8% 10% Last Result
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.8% 100%  
12 32% 99.2%  
13 61% 67% Median
14 5% 7%  
15 1.0% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 8% 98%  
11 48% 90% Median
12 42% 43%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 8% 100%  
8 14% 92%  
9 45% 78% Median
10 32% 33%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 4% 98%  
7 25% 94%  
8 69% 70% Median
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 48% 99.9% Last Result
6 48% 52% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 8% 99.9%  
6 80% 92% Median
7 12% 12%  
8 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 79% 100% Median
3 21% 21% Last Result
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 47% 100%  
2 53% 53% Median
3 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 82 100% 81–84 81–84 79–84 79–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 11% 73–76 73–77 73–77 72–78
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 75 46% 74–77 72–77 72–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 74 14% 73–76 73–76 72–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 73 2% 71–74 71–75 71–75 70–77
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 67 0% 65–69 64–69 63–69 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 64–66 64–67 64–67 63–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 66 0% 65–66 64–66 63–66 63–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 64 0% 62–64 62–65 62–66 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 61 0% 60–63 60–63 59–63 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 60 0% 59–61 59–62 57–62 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 58–60 58–60 58–61 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 61 0% 60–61 59–61 58–61 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 56–58 56–59 56–59 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 56 0% 55–57 55–57 54–57 54–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 49–50 48–51 47–51 46–51
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 48 0% 47–49 46–50 45–50 44–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 45 0% 44–45 44–45 43–46 42–49
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 42 0% 42–44 42–44 41–44 39–45
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 37 0% 36–38 36–38 35–38 33–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 27–29 25–29 25–29 25–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 2% 99.9%  
80 1.1% 97%  
81 9% 96%  
82 45% 87% Median
83 32% 42%  
84 10% 10%  
85 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 2% 99.9%  
73 37% 98%  
74 40% 61% Median
75 11% 21%  
76 4% 11% Majority
77 6% 7% Last Result
78 1.2% 1.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 2% 100%  
72 6% 98%  
73 2% 93%  
74 1.1% 91%  
75 43% 90%  
76 11% 46% Median, Majority
77 34% 35%  
78 1.0% 1.5%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 2% 100%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 7% 97%  
74 73% 89% Median
75 3% 17%  
76 10% 14% Majority
77 3% 3%  
78 0.5% 0.8%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.9%  
71 31% 98%  
72 7% 67% Median
73 48% 60%  
74 4% 12% Last Result
75 6% 8%  
76 1.1% 2% Majority
77 0.5% 0.5%  
78 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 2% 100%  
63 1.3% 98%  
64 6% 97%  
65 2% 91%  
66 38% 90% Last Result
67 38% 52% Median
68 3% 13%  
69 10% 10%  
70 0.3% 0.6%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 1.4% 99.7%  
64 31% 98%  
65 51% 67% Median
66 9% 16%  
67 5% 7%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.8% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.2% 100%  
63 2% 99.8%  
64 5% 97%  
65 38% 93% Median
66 52% 54%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.1%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.9%  
62 32% 99.3%  
63 8% 68% Median
64 53% 60%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.4% 1.1%  
68 0.7% 0.8%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 2% 99.7%  
60 8% 97%  
61 44% 89% Median
62 32% 45%  
63 11% 13%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.6% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.7% 99.9%  
57 3% 99.2%  
58 0.3% 97%  
59 36% 96% Median
60 48% 60%  
61 6% 12%  
62 6% 6%  
63 0.2% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.5%  
65 0.4% 0.4%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 2% 99.8% Last Result
58 37% 98%  
59 40% 61% Median
60 17% 21%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.4% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.6%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.7% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.3%  
58 3% 99.0%  
59 4% 96%  
60 9% 93% Median
61 81% 83% Last Result
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.7% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100% Last Result
55 1.4% 99.9%  
56 31% 98%  
57 9% 68% Median
58 54% 59%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.8% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.3% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 4% 99.5%  
55 14% 95% Median
56 69% 81%  
57 10% 13%  
58 1.5% 2%  
59 0.7% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 4% 97%  
49 47% 93% Median
50 39% 46%  
51 6% 7%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.5% 100%  
45 3% 99.5%  
46 6% 97%  
47 5% 91% Last Result
48 45% 86% Median
49 31% 41%  
50 9% 10%  
51 0.9% 1.0%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 1.4% 99.9%  
43 2% 98%  
44 38% 97% Median
45 55% 59%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.5% 1.5%  
48 0.4% 1.0%  
49 0.5% 0.5%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 1.3% 100%  
40 0.6% 98.6%  
41 3% 98%  
42 51% 95%  
43 33% 44% Median
44 10% 11%  
45 0.9% 1.2%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.5% 100%  
34 1.1% 99.5%  
35 1.1% 98%  
36 12% 97%  
37 74% 85% Median
38 9% 11%  
39 0.8% 2%  
40 0.8% 0.9%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 8% 99.9%  
26 1.1% 92%  
27 48% 91% Median
28 31% 43%  
29 11% 12%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations