Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 30 September–5 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.7% 17.8–19.6% 17.5–19.9% 17.3–20.1% 16.9–20.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 29 27–30 27–30 27–30 26–31
Partij van de Arbeid 9 21 19–21 18–22 18–22 18–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–16 15–17 14–18 14–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 13–16 13–16 13–18 13–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–15
Democraten 66 19 12 12–13 11–13 11–14 11–14
GroenLinks 14 12 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–11
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
DENK 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 34% 99.3%  
28 13% 65%  
29 9% 52% Median
30 41% 44%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 6% 100%  
19 5% 94%  
20 38% 89%  
21 43% 51% Median
22 8% 8%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 36% 97%  
16 55% 62% Median
17 4% 7%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 20% 100%  
14 10% 80%  
15 15% 69%  
16 50% 55% Median
17 2% 4%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 9% 99.8%  
12 5% 91%  
13 24% 86%  
14 60% 61% Median
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 9% 99.6%  
12 43% 90% Median
13 44% 47%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 36% 99.2%  
12 41% 63% Median
13 20% 22%  
14 3% 3% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 10% 100%  
8 14% 90%  
9 57% 76% Median
10 13% 19%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.4% 100% Last Result
6 20% 98.6%  
7 55% 78% Median
8 23% 23%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 36% 99.9% Last Result
6 52% 64% Median
7 12% 12%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 16% 99.9%  
6 79% 84% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 27% 99.9%  
3 49% 73% Last Result, Median
4 23% 23%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 68% 100% Median
2 32% 32%  
3 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 83 100% 81–84 81–86 81–86 79–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 10% 73–75 73–77 73–79 71–79
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 75 29% 74–76 73–79 71–79 71–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 75 17% 72–76 72–77 72–77 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 73 5% 72–74 72–75 71–77 70–77
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 65–68 63–68 63–69 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 63–67 62–67 62–67 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 65 0% 63–66 63–67 62–67 62–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 63 0% 61–65 61–65 61–66 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 63 0% 61–65 61–65 61–65 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 62 0% 60–63 59–63 59–63 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 59 0% 58–61 58–62 58–63 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 57–61 57–61 57–61 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 57 0% 56–59 56–59 56–60 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 57 0% 56–58 55–59 55–59 54–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 47–51 47–51 47–51 45–52
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 49 0% 47–50 46–50 45–50 45–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 45 0% 43–46 43–46 43–47 42–48
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 42 0% 41–44 40–44 39–44 38–45
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 36 0% 35–37 34–38 34–38 32–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 28 0% 27–29 27–30 27–30 25–32

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.9% 99.9%  
80 0.6% 99.0%  
81 30% 98%  
82 10% 69%  
83 9% 58%  
84 39% 49% Median
85 3% 10% Last Result
86 6% 7%  
87 0.5% 0.5%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.7% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.3%  
73 39% 99.0%  
74 28% 60%  
75 22% 32%  
76 1.4% 10% Median, Majority
77 5% 9% Last Result
78 0.7% 3%  
79 3% 3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 3% 100%  
72 1.2% 97%  
73 4% 96%  
74 26% 92%  
75 37% 66%  
76 19% 29% Median, Majority
77 2% 10%  
78 2% 7%  
79 6% 6%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 24% 99.8%  
73 7% 76%  
74 4% 68%  
75 47% 65% Median
76 11% 17% Majority
77 5% 7%  
78 2% 2%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.7% 99.8%  
71 2% 99.0%  
72 40% 97%  
73 46% 57%  
74 2% 11% Last Result
75 5% 9% Median
76 2% 5% Majority
77 3% 3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.3% 100%  
63 6% 99.7%  
64 0.6% 94%  
65 28% 93%  
66 30% 66% Last Result
67 15% 36% Median
68 18% 21%  
69 2% 3%  
70 1.1% 1.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 9% 99.9%  
63 5% 91%  
64 29% 86%  
65 15% 57%  
66 28% 42% Median
67 12% 14%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
62 3% 99.7%  
63 33% 96%  
64 6% 64%  
65 13% 58%  
66 35% 45% Median
67 9% 10%  
68 1.0% 1.1%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 10% 99.7%  
62 5% 90%  
63 41% 85%  
64 6% 43%  
65 33% 37% Median
66 3% 4%  
67 0.7% 1.3%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 2% 99.7%  
61 25% 98%  
62 22% 72%  
63 35% 50% Median
64 5% 15%  
65 8% 10%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.5%  
59 4% 98.9%  
60 36% 94%  
61 8% 59% Last Result
62 10% 51% Median
63 39% 41%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.7% 0.7%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 21% 99.4%  
59 47% 78%  
60 12% 31%  
61 11% 19% Median
62 4% 9%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.3% 1.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 13% 99.6% Last Result
58 29% 86%  
59 16% 58%  
60 26% 42% Median
61 14% 16%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
55 0.8% 99.7%  
56 13% 98.8%  
57 41% 86%  
58 8% 45%  
59 34% 37% Median
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.1%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.3% 100%  
54 0.9% 99.6%  
55 7% 98.7%  
56 36% 92%  
57 38% 56% Median
58 10% 18%  
59 6% 7%  
60 0.7% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.5% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.5%  
47 34% 99.3%  
48 9% 65%  
49 10% 56%  
50 8% 46% Median
51 37% 38%  
52 1.0% 1.0%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 2% 99.7%  
46 7% 97%  
47 2% 90% Last Result
48 30% 89%  
49 45% 58% Median
50 11% 13%  
51 1.5% 2%  
52 0.8% 0.9%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 37% 99.4%  
44 11% 62%  
45 37% 51% Median
46 10% 14%  
47 2% 3%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 2% 100%  
39 2% 98%  
40 1.2% 96%  
41 30% 94%  
42 48% 65%  
43 2% 17% Median
44 14% 15%  
45 1.0% 1.2%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 2% 100%  
33 0.3% 98%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 94%  
36 65% 89%  
37 18% 23% Median
38 4% 6%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 0.6% 99.2%  
27 41% 98.6%  
28 11% 57% Median
29 41% 46%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.0% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations