Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 10–15 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 19.3% 18.1–20.5% 17.8–20.9% 17.5–21.2% 17.0–21.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.6% 9.7–11.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.2–12.1% 8.8–12.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.6% 9.7–11.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.2–12.1% 8.8–12.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.5% 9.6–11.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.1–12.0% 8.7–12.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.2% 9.3–11.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.9–11.7% 8.4–12.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.8% 7.0–8.7% 6.8–8.9% 6.6–9.2% 6.3–9.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.4% 6.5–8.6% 6.4–8.9% 6.0–9.3%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 5.4% 4.8–6.2% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.6% 4.1–7.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.1–5.4% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–5.8% 3.6–6.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 4.6% 4.0–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–6.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.8%
DENK 2.1% 1.9% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 29 28–33 27–33 27–33 26–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–19
GroenLinks 14 16 14–18 14–18 13–18 13–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 12–20
Forum voor Democratie 2 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 10–15
Democraten 66 19 11 11–13 10–14 10–14 9–14
ChristenUnie 5 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 5–11
50Plus 4 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Socialistische Partij 14 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–7 4–8 4–8 4–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 2–5 2–5 2–6 2–6
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–4 1–4 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 4% 98%  
28 20% 94%  
29 30% 74% Median
30 14% 44%  
31 9% 30%  
32 2% 22%  
33 19% 20% Last Result
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 10% 95%  
16 28% 85%  
17 31% 57% Median
18 25% 26%  
19 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 26% 96%  
15 26% 70% Median
16 32% 44%  
17 10% 12%  
18 1.2% 2%  
19 0.6% 0.8%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 3% 100%  
14 7% 97% Last Result
15 27% 89%  
16 29% 62% Median
17 22% 34%  
18 12% 12%  
19 0.6% 0.6%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 3% 99.5%  
14 14% 97%  
15 7% 82%  
16 46% 75% Median
17 18% 29%  
18 8% 12%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 21% 99.6%  
11 27% 79%  
12 14% 52% Median
13 34% 38%  
14 2% 5%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.8%  
10 6% 98.6%  
11 48% 92% Median
12 26% 44%  
13 13% 19%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100% Last Result
6 2% 99.5%  
7 39% 98%  
8 38% 58% Median
9 13% 20%  
10 5% 7%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 10% 100%  
6 30% 90%  
7 48% 60% Median
8 8% 11%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 6% 99.9%  
6 35% 94%  
7 29% 59% Median
8 30% 30%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 6% 100%  
5 45% 94% Last Result, Median
6 32% 49%  
7 7% 17%  
8 9% 9%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 18% 100%  
3 24% 82% Last Result
4 39% 58% Median
5 16% 19%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 73% 96% Median
3 14% 23% Last Result
4 9% 9%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 81 97% 78–87 77–87 75–87 74–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 81 99.7% 78–84 77–85 76–85 76–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 93% 76–80 75–80 74–80 70–81
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij 80 74 16% 72–76 71–77 70–77 68–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 38% 72–76 71–76 70–77 67–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 69 0% 66–71 65–71 64–72 63–74
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 68 0% 65–69 64–70 63–71 61–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 65 0% 63–70 61–70 61–70 60–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 66 0% 62–67 61–68 61–69 60–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 62 0% 60–66 58–66 58–66 56–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 59–64 58–64 58–65 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 62 0% 59–64 58–65 57–65 56–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 58 0% 55–62 53–62 53–62 52–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 59 0% 55–60 55–60 54–61 53–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 56 0% 54–59 54–60 53–60 52–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 47 0% 44–50 43–50 42–50 42–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 45 0% 43–47 43–48 42–48 42–50
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 42–45 40–45 39–46 39–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 39 0% 38–42 37–42 37–43 36–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 31 0% 30–34 30–34 28–35 28–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 29 0% 26–30 25–30 25–30 24–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 1.0% 100%  
75 2% 99.0%  
76 2% 97% Majority
77 4% 96%  
78 12% 91%  
79 3% 79%  
80 8% 76%  
81 23% 68% Median
82 4% 45%  
83 8% 41%  
84 5% 33%  
85 12% 28%  
86 0.5% 16%  
87 16% 16%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 4% 99.7% Majority
77 0.9% 95%  
78 10% 94%  
79 6% 84%  
80 10% 78% Median
81 29% 68%  
82 11% 39%  
83 5% 28%  
84 18% 23%  
85 4% 5% Last Result
86 0.8% 1.2%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.3% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.2% 99.4%  
72 0.2% 99.2%  
73 0.3% 99.0%  
74 3% 98.7%  
75 3% 96%  
76 15% 93% Majority
77 20% 78% Last Result
78 25% 58% Median
79 5% 32%  
80 25% 27%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.7% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.2%  
70 2% 99.1%  
71 3% 97%  
72 13% 94%  
73 12% 82%  
74 26% 70% Median
75 28% 44%  
76 7% 16% Majority
77 6% 9%  
78 1.3% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.0%  
80 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.5%  
68 0.2% 99.3%  
69 0.4% 99.1%  
70 2% 98.6%  
71 3% 96%  
72 13% 94%  
73 16% 80%  
74 15% 64% Last Result, Median
75 12% 50%  
76 35% 38% Majority
77 3% 3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 3% 99.4%  
65 3% 96%  
66 14% 93%  
67 6% 79%  
68 16% 73%  
69 24% 57% Median
70 23% 33%  
71 5% 10%  
72 4% 5%  
73 0.4% 1.1%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.7% 100%  
62 1.1% 99.2%  
63 2% 98%  
64 5% 96%  
65 13% 92%  
66 8% 79% Last Result
67 9% 71% Median
68 41% 61%  
69 15% 21%  
70 3% 6%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.5% 1.3%  
73 0.6% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 2% 99.8%  
61 4% 98%  
62 0.8% 94%  
63 14% 93%  
64 8% 79%  
65 24% 71% Median
66 7% 48%  
67 16% 41%  
68 3% 25%  
69 3% 22%  
70 19% 19%  
71 0.5% 0.6%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.7% 99.6%  
61 4% 99.0%  
62 12% 95%  
63 15% 83%  
64 11% 68%  
65 6% 57% Median
66 24% 51%  
67 21% 27%  
68 3% 6%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.7% 0.8%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.8%  
57 0.7% 99.3%  
58 4% 98.6%  
59 4% 94%  
60 5% 90%  
61 22% 86%  
62 15% 64% Median
63 19% 49%  
64 13% 30%  
65 1.0% 17%  
66 16% 16%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 1.2% 99.9%  
58 4% 98.7%  
59 20% 95%  
60 2% 75%  
61 18% 73% Last Result, Median
62 7% 55%  
63 26% 48%  
64 18% 22%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.9% 1.4%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 3% 99.4% Last Result
58 2% 97%  
59 15% 94%  
60 6% 79%  
61 7% 73%  
62 21% 65% Median
63 20% 45%  
64 19% 25%  
65 4% 6%  
66 1.2% 1.5%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.9% 99.9%  
53 4% 99.0%  
54 2% 95%  
55 12% 93%  
56 6% 81%  
57 16% 75% Median
58 25% 59%  
59 2% 34%  
60 9% 32%  
61 6% 23%  
62 16% 17%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.5%  
54 4% 99.1% Last Result
55 13% 95%  
56 8% 82%  
57 9% 74%  
58 14% 66% Median
59 6% 52%  
60 41% 46%  
61 3% 5%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.9% 99.9%  
53 4% 99.0%  
54 12% 95%  
55 11% 84% Median
56 28% 73%  
57 10% 45%  
58 8% 35%  
59 21% 27%  
60 4% 7%  
61 2% 2% Last Result
62 0.6% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 4% 99.5%  
43 4% 95%  
44 15% 91%  
45 6% 76%  
46 15% 70% Median
47 32% 55%  
48 4% 23%  
49 3% 19%  
50 16% 17%  
51 0.4% 0.4%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 3% 99.7% Last Result
43 17% 97%  
44 20% 80% Median
45 27% 60%  
46 6% 33%  
47 20% 28%  
48 5% 7%  
49 1.0% 2%  
50 1.0% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 3% 99.9%  
40 4% 97%  
41 3% 93%  
42 11% 90%  
43 28% 80% Median
44 22% 52%  
45 25% 30%  
46 3% 5%  
47 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 7% 99.2%  
38 12% 92%  
39 33% 80%  
40 12% 46% Median
41 21% 35%  
42 10% 14%  
43 3% 5%  
44 0.6% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.8%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 2% 99.8% Last Result
29 1.5% 97%  
30 10% 96%  
31 40% 86%  
32 11% 46% Median
33 10% 35%  
34 23% 26%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.0% 99.8%  
25 5% 98.8%  
26 5% 93%  
27 20% 89%  
28 11% 69% Median
29 44% 58%  
30 13% 14%  
31 0.7% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations