Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 15 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 20.7% | 19.1–22.4% | 18.6–22.9% | 18.2–23.4% | 17.5–24.2% | 
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.5–12.1% | 9.2–12.5% | 8.9–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 10.7% | 9.5–12.1% | 9.2–12.5% | 8.9–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 10.0% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.2–12.0% | 7.7–12.7% | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 8.7% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.3–10.4% | 7.1–10.7% | 6.6–11.3% | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% | 
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 7.3% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.4–9.8% | 
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% | 
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.5–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.1–7.0% | 3.7–7.5% | 
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.7% | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% | 
| DENK | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 31 | 27–32 | 27–34 | 27–35 | 26–37 | 
| GroenLinks | 14 | 18 | 13–21 | 13–21 | 12–21 | 12–21 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 16 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 11–20 | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–19 | 12–19 | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 9–17 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 11 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 7–14 | 
| 50Plus | 4 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–11 | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 21% | 99.3% | |
| 28 | 16% | 78% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 62% | |
| 30 | 7% | 61% | |
| 31 | 13% | 55% | Median | 
| 32 | 32% | 42% | |
| 33 | 3% | 9% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 3% | 6% | |
| 35 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 15% | 97% | |
| 14 | 7% | 82% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 8% | 75% | |
| 16 | 4% | 68% | |
| 17 | 8% | 64% | |
| 18 | 28% | 56% | Median | 
| 19 | 12% | 28% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 21 | 16% | 16% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 12% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 22% | 87% | |
| 15 | 5% | 65% | |
| 16 | 14% | 59% | Median | 
| 17 | 16% | 46% | |
| 18 | 24% | 29% | |
| 19 | 5% | 6% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98% | |
| 14 | 31% | 94% | |
| 15 | 21% | 63% | Median | 
| 16 | 31% | 42% | |
| 17 | 7% | 11% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 19 | 3% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result | 
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | 
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 12 | 21% | 96% | |
| 13 | 43% | 75% | Median | 
| 14 | 25% | 31% | |
| 15 | 4% | 6% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 19% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 4% | 80% | |
| 11 | 37% | 76% | Median | 
| 12 | 19% | 39% | |
| 13 | 8% | 19% | |
| 14 | 11% | 11% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 18% | 98% | |
| 10 | 9% | 80% | |
| 11 | 24% | 70% | Median | 
| 12 | 39% | 47% | |
| 13 | 6% | 8% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 26% | 98% | |
| 8 | 4% | 72% | |
| 9 | 24% | 68% | Median | 
| 10 | 36% | 44% | |
| 11 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 12 | 7% | 7% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | 
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.1% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 22% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 10% | 77% | |
| 8 | 40% | 67% | Median | 
| 9 | 23% | 27% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | 
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 11% | 97% | |
| 7 | 47% | 86% | Median | 
| 8 | 33% | 39% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 26% | 87% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 33% | 61% | Median | 
| 7 | 23% | 28% | |
| 8 | 5% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | 
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 24% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 26% | 75% | Last Result, Median | 
| 4 | 45% | 49% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | 
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 15% | 98% | |
| 3 | 48% | 83% | Last Result, Median | 
| 4 | 31% | 34% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 90 | 77 | 73% | 74–80 | 74–81 | 74–82 | 73–84 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 85 | 77 | 69% | 71–79 | 71–80 | 71–82 | 71–84 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 72 | 18% | 69–77 | 69–78 | 69–79 | 69–81 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 74 | 69 | 4% | 65–74 | 65–75 | 65–76 | 65–78 | 
| GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij | 80 | 70 | 1.0% | 67–75 | 67–75 | 65–75 | 64–76 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 61 | 66 | 0.1% | 62–71 | 62–74 | 62–74 | 60–74 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus | 58 | 63 | 0% | 58–68 | 58–71 | 58–71 | 58–71 | 
| GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 66 | 62 | 0% | 59–68 | 59–68 | 59–68 | 56–69 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 76 | 59 | 0% | 58–63 | 58–65 | 57–66 | 56–67 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 61 | 58 | 0% | 52–61 | 52–62 | 52–64 | 52–65 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 57 | 0% | 55–62 | 55–62 | 55–63 | 52–65 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 72 | 57 | 0% | 52–60 | 52–62 | 52–63 | 52–64 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 61 | 57 | 0% | 52–61 | 52–61 | 52–63 | 52–66 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 54 | 53 | 0% | 51–59 | 51–59 | 51–60 | 49–61 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 71 | 53 | 0% | 50–56 | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–60 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 46 | 0% | 41–49 | 41–50 | 41–52 | 41–55 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 41 | 0% | 38–45 | 38–46 | 38–47 | 37–48 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 47 | 38 | 0% | 35–41 | 35–42 | 34–42 | 30–44 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 33 | 34 | 0% | 32–38 | 32–38 | 32–38 | 29–41 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 28 | 26 | 0% | 24–30 | 24–30 | 24–30 | 21–32 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 38 | 22 | 0% | 21–25 | 19–26 | 19–26 | 18–27 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 22% | 98.9% | |
| 75 | 4% | 77% | |
| 76 | 2% | 73% | Majority | 
| 77 | 33% | 72% | |
| 78 | 10% | 39% | |
| 79 | 2% | 28% | Median | 
| 80 | 21% | 27% | |
| 81 | 2% | 6% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 73 | 17% | 89% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 71% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 71% | |
| 76 | 12% | 69% | Majority | 
| 77 | 25% | 58% | Median | 
| 78 | 17% | 33% | |
| 79 | 9% | 16% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 84 | 2% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result | 
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 21% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 79% | |
| 71 | 2% | 78% | |
| 72 | 32% | 76% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 44% | Median | 
| 74 | 3% | 43% | |
| 75 | 22% | 40% | |
| 76 | 8% | 18% | Majority | 
| 77 | 4% | 10% | Last Result | 
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 20% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 79% | |
| 68 | 19% | 78% | |
| 69 | 15% | 59% | |
| 70 | 6% | 44% | Median | 
| 71 | 1.3% | 38% | |
| 72 | 3% | 37% | |
| 73 | 24% | 34% | |
| 74 | 3% | 10% | Last Result | 
| 75 | 3% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 67 | 15% | 96% | |
| 68 | 5% | 81% | |
| 69 | 25% | 77% | |
| 70 | 23% | 52% | |
| 71 | 3% | 28% | Median | 
| 72 | 0.7% | 25% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 25% | |
| 74 | 1.5% | 23% | |
| 75 | 21% | 22% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 1.0% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.5% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 20% | 99.1% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 79% | |
| 64 | 5% | 78% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 73% | |
| 66 | 27% | 72% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 45% | Median | 
| 68 | 2% | 44% | |
| 69 | 28% | 42% | |
| 70 | 3% | 14% | |
| 71 | 2% | 11% | |
| 72 | 2% | 9% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 74 | 7% | 7% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 20% | 99.6% | Last Result | 
| 59 | 0.7% | 79% | |
| 60 | 4% | 79% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 74% | |
| 62 | 12% | 73% | |
| 63 | 16% | 61% | |
| 64 | 6% | 46% | Median | 
| 65 | 6% | 40% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 34% | |
| 67 | 20% | 32% | |
| 68 | 3% | 12% | |
| 69 | 2% | 9% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 71 | 7% | 7% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 59 | 17% | 98% | |
| 60 | 3% | 82% | |
| 61 | 4% | 79% | |
| 62 | 32% | 75% | |
| 63 | 16% | 44% | |
| 64 | 3% | 28% | Median | 
| 65 | 2% | 25% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 24% | Last Result | 
| 67 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 68 | 21% | 21% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 11% | 95% | |
| 59 | 38% | 84% | |
| 60 | 6% | 45% | |
| 61 | 15% | 39% | Median | 
| 62 | 5% | 24% | |
| 63 | 12% | 19% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 65 | 3% | 6% | |
| 66 | 2% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 56 | 25% | 87% | |
| 57 | 7% | 62% | |
| 58 | 36% | 55% | Median | 
| 59 | 3% | 19% | |
| 60 | 2% | 16% | |
| 61 | 8% | 14% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 2% | 6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 65 | 2% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 55 | 25% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 16% | 74% | |
| 57 | 12% | 58% | Last Result | 
| 58 | 0.8% | 46% | Median | 
| 59 | 20% | 45% | |
| 60 | 6% | 24% | |
| 61 | 3% | 18% | |
| 62 | 11% | 15% | |
| 63 | 3% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 21% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 54 | 12% | 79% | |
| 55 | 5% | 67% | |
| 56 | 9% | 62% | |
| 57 | 14% | 53% | Median | 
| 58 | 3% | 39% | |
| 59 | 12% | 37% | |
| 60 | 17% | 25% | |
| 61 | 2% | 8% | |
| 62 | 4% | 6% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 55 | 17% | 87% | |
| 56 | 3% | 70% | |
| 57 | 31% | 67% | |
| 58 | 9% | 36% | Median | 
| 59 | 6% | 28% | |
| 60 | 2% | 21% | |
| 61 | 15% | 19% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 66 | 2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 24% | 98.9% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 74% | |
| 53 | 26% | 73% | |
| 54 | 2% | 48% | Last Result | 
| 55 | 8% | 46% | Median | 
| 56 | 2% | 38% | |
| 57 | 18% | 36% | |
| 58 | 3% | 18% | |
| 59 | 11% | 15% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 32% | 95% | |
| 51 | 3% | 63% | |
| 52 | 2% | 61% | |
| 53 | 31% | 58% | Median | 
| 54 | 11% | 28% | |
| 55 | 3% | 17% | |
| 56 | 8% | 13% | |
| 57 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 4% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 89% | Last Result | 
| 43 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 44 | 6% | 88% | |
| 45 | 24% | 82% | |
| 46 | 20% | 57% | |
| 47 | 10% | 37% | Median | 
| 48 | 2% | 27% | |
| 49 | 19% | 25% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 21% | 99.3% | |
| 39 | 15% | 79% | |
| 40 | 2% | 64% | |
| 41 | 20% | 62% | |
| 42 | 4% | 41% | Median | 
| 43 | 2% | 37% | |
| 44 | 19% | 35% | |
| 45 | 9% | 15% | |
| 46 | 2% | 6% | |
| 47 | 4% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 98.5% | |
| 35 | 27% | 97% | |
| 36 | 3% | 70% | |
| 37 | 5% | 67% | |
| 38 | 19% | 62% | Median | 
| 39 | 5% | 43% | |
| 40 | 2% | 38% | |
| 41 | 29% | 36% | |
| 42 | 5% | 7% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 27% | 98.7% | |
| 33 | 5% | 71% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 16% | 66% | |
| 35 | 8% | 50% | Median | 
| 36 | 8% | 42% | |
| 37 | 8% | 34% | |
| 38 | 24% | 26% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 24 | 12% | 98% | |
| 25 | 3% | 86% | |
| 26 | 33% | 83% | |
| 27 | 3% | 49% | Median | 
| 28 | 8% | 47% | Last Result | 
| 29 | 27% | 39% | |
| 30 | 9% | 11% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 20 | 2% | 93% | |
| 21 | 33% | 91% | |
| 22 | 13% | 58% | Median | 
| 23 | 26% | 45% | |
| 24 | 3% | 19% | |
| 25 | 10% | 16% | |
| 26 | 5% | 6% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Public
 - Commissioner(s): —
 - Fieldwork period: 15 October 2019
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 953
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 3.70%