Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 14–19 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 27–29 26–29 26–30 24–31
Partij van de Arbeid 9 20 19–22 19–22 19–22 18–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 16–18 16–19 15–19 15–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 13–16 13–16 13–16 13–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Democraten 66 19 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 12–15
GroenLinks 14 12 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 8 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
50Plus 4 7 7 7 6–8 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 98.9%  
26 8% 98.5%  
27 10% 91%  
28 46% 81% Median
29 32% 34%  
30 0.9% 3%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.8% 100%  
19 47% 99.2%  
20 16% 53% Median
21 16% 37%  
22 20% 21%  
23 0.5% 0.8%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 4% 100%  
16 21% 96%  
17 33% 75% Median
18 34% 43%  
19 7% 9%  
20 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 11% 100%  
14 5% 89%  
15 22% 84%  
16 61% 62% Median
17 0.4% 0.9%  
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 10% 98%  
14 73% 88% Median
15 13% 15%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 30% 99.7%  
13 41% 70% Median
14 28% 29%  
15 1.2% 1.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.4% 100%  
11 10% 98.6%  
12 57% 89% Median
13 26% 32%  
14 6% 6% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 51% 99.7% Median
9 38% 49%  
10 11% 11%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.4% 100%  
6 2% 99.6%  
7 94% 97% Median
8 3% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 32% 99.6% Last Result
6 44% 68% Median
7 24% 24%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 34% 99.9%  
4 64% 66% Median
5 2% 2% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 58% 100% Median
3 41% 42% Last Result
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100%  
2 83% 85% Median
3 2% 2% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 83 100% 81–83 79–83 78–84 78–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 78% 75–78 74–79 73–79 73–79
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 75 38% 74–76 74–77 73–78 72–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 35% 73–76 72–77 72–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 76 51% 72–76 71–76 71–76 70–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 67 0% 63–67 63–69 63–69 62–69
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 67 0% 65–68 64–68 63–69 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 65 0% 62–65 61–67 61–67 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 63 0% 62–66 60–66 60–66 59–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 61 0% 59–63 59–63 59–64 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 63 0% 60–64 59–64 58–64 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 61 0% 59–62 59–62 58–62 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 56–60 56–62 55–62 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 55–58 54–60 54–60 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 57 0% 54–58 52–58 52–58 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 47–50 47–50 46–51 44–51
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 49 0% 47–50 46–50 45–51 45–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 44 0% 41–44 40–45 40–45 39–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 41 0% 40–43 39–43 39–43 39–44
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 35 0% 34–38 33–38 33–38 33–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 28 0% 26–30 26–30 25–30 25–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 5% 100%  
79 2% 95%  
80 0.4% 93%  
81 7% 92%  
82 7% 85%  
83 75% 78% Median
84 2% 3%  
85 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 3% 99.5%  
74 6% 97%  
75 13% 91%  
76 24% 78% Majority
77 24% 55% Last Result, Median
78 24% 31%  
79 6% 6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 2% 99.9%  
73 2% 98%  
74 17% 96%  
75 41% 79% Median
76 29% 38% Majority
77 6% 9%  
78 0.9% 3%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.4% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.6%  
72 5% 99.5%  
73 15% 94%  
74 24% 79% Last Result
75 21% 56% Median
76 28% 35% Majority
77 7% 7%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.4% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.6%  
71 6% 99.4%  
72 8% 94%  
73 8% 86%  
74 26% 78%  
75 2% 53% Median
76 50% 51% Majority
77 0.5% 0.9%  
78 0.1% 0.4%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 2% 100%  
63 8% 98%  
64 7% 90%  
65 1.5% 83%  
66 13% 81%  
67 59% 68% Median
68 2% 8%  
69 6% 6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 2% 99.7%  
64 5% 97%  
65 7% 92%  
66 28% 85% Last Result
67 29% 57% Median
68 24% 28%  
69 1.5% 3%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 1.0% 100%  
61 7% 99.0%  
62 8% 92%  
63 4% 84%  
64 5% 81%  
65 66% 76% Median
66 3% 9%  
67 6% 6%  
68 0.4% 0.4%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.9% 99.9%  
60 6% 99.1%  
61 2% 93% Last Result
62 4% 92%  
63 50% 88%  
64 11% 38% Median
65 8% 27%  
66 19% 19%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 1.1% 99.9%  
58 0.5% 98.8%  
59 10% 98%  
60 3% 88%  
61 50% 85% Last Result, Median
62 23% 35%  
63 9% 12%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 4% 99.5%  
59 3% 95%  
60 6% 92%  
61 20% 86%  
62 15% 66%  
63 4% 51% Median
64 46% 47%  
65 0.7% 0.8%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 2% 99.8%  
58 3% 98%  
59 13% 96%  
60 26% 83%  
61 20% 56% Median
62 35% 36%  
63 0.9% 1.0%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 3% 99.9%  
56 7% 97%  
57 7% 90% Last Result
58 2% 83%  
59 13% 81%  
60 61% 68% Median
61 1.4% 8%  
62 6% 6%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 2% 100%  
54 6% 98% Last Result
55 7% 92%  
56 4% 85%  
57 5% 81%  
58 67% 76% Median
59 2% 9%  
60 6% 6%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 6% 99.9%  
53 2% 94%  
54 6% 93%  
55 6% 87%  
56 22% 80%  
57 27% 59% Median
58 31% 31%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 1.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 98.8%  
46 3% 98%  
47 34% 95%  
48 28% 62% Median
49 4% 33%  
50 26% 29%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 5% 99.8%  
46 1.3% 95%  
47 26% 94% Last Result
48 7% 68%  
49 36% 61% Median
50 20% 25%  
51 4% 4%  
52 0.6% 0.6%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.9% 100%  
40 7% 99.1%  
41 3% 92%  
42 10% 90%  
43 6% 80%  
44 65% 74% Median
45 9% 9%  
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 7% 99.5%  
40 3% 92%  
41 58% 89%  
42 6% 31% Median
43 24% 25%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.4%  
46 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.4% 100%  
33 6% 99.6%  
34 25% 93%  
35 30% 68%  
36 12% 39% Median
37 6% 27%  
38 20% 20%  
39 0.4% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 5% 100%  
26 7% 95%  
27 3% 88%  
28 46% 85%  
29 12% 39% Median
30 25% 27%  
31 1.4% 1.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations