Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 21–26 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.2% 17.3–19.1% 17.0–19.4% 16.8–19.6% 16.4–20.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 13.1% 12.4–14.0% 12.1–14.2% 12.0–14.4% 11.6–14.8%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.1% 10.4–11.9% 10.2–12.1% 10.0–12.3% 9.7–12.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.1% 9.4–10.9% 9.2–11.1% 9.1–11.2% 8.7–11.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.1% 7.5–8.7% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.1% 7.5–8.7% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.1% 7.5–8.7% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.1% 5.5–6.7% 5.4–6.8% 5.3–7.0% 5.0–7.3%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.5–4.7% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.5–4.7% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.0% 2.7–3.5% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 29 27–29 27–29 27–29 25–31
Partij van de Arbeid 9 20 19–21 19–21 19–22 18–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 16–18 16–19 15–19 15–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14–15 14–16 14–17 13–18
Democraten 66 19 13 12–13 11–14 11–14 11–14
GroenLinks 14 13 11–13 11–13 11–14 11–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 13 12–13 11–14 11–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 8 8–9 8–10 8–10 7–10
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 5 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.4%  
27 14% 98.5%  
28 19% 85%  
29 64% 66% Median
30 1.1% 2%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.9%  
19 14% 99.0%  
20 70% 85% Median
21 12% 15%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.8% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 4% 99.9%  
16 13% 96%  
17 66% 83% Median
18 8% 16%  
19 8% 8%  
20 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 73% 99.4% Median
15 21% 26%  
16 3% 6%  
17 2% 3%  
18 1.0% 1.0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 9% 99.7%  
12 17% 91%  
13 66% 74% Median
14 8% 8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 13% 99.7%  
12 12% 87%  
13 72% 75% Median
14 3% 3% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 1.0% 100%  
11 8% 99.0%  
12 10% 91%  
13 74% 81% Median
14 7% 7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 71% 99.3% Median
9 20% 29%  
10 9% 9%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.9% Last Result
6 80% 92% Median
7 12% 12%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100% Last Result
5 81% 99.7% Median
6 11% 19%  
7 7% 7%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.3% 100%  
4 24% 98.7%  
5 75% 75% Last Result, Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 14% 100%  
3 85% 86% Last Result, Median
4 0.2% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 72% 100% Median
3 26% 28% Last Result
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 82 100% 80–83 79–83 79–83 79–84
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 74 6% 74–75 73–76 72–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 73% 74–76 73–77 72–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 75 0.7% 72–75 71–75 70–75 70–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 73 0.2% 71–73 71–75 70–75 69–75
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 65–66 64–67 63–68 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 64 0% 63–64 61–65 61–66 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 63 0% 62–63 61–64 61–65 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 62 0% 60–62 59–64 59–64 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 60–61 59–63 58–63 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 62 0% 58–62 58–62 58–62 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 60 0% 59–61 58–61 57–62 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 57–59 56–59 55–60 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 56 0% 54–56 53–57 53–57 52–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 54–56 53–56 53–57 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 47–49 46–49 46–50 45–51
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 47 0% 46–48 46–49 45–49 45–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 43 0% 42–43 42–43 41–45 40–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 40 0% 40–41 40–42 40–43 39–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 34 0% 34–35 34–36 34–37 33–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 26–28 26–29 26–29 25–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.3% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 9% 99.5%  
80 6% 91%  
81 7% 85%  
82 68% 78% Median
83 10% 10%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
86 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.4% 100%  
71 2% 99.6%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 6% 97%  
74 70% 91% Median
75 15% 21%  
76 1.4% 6% Majority
77 3% 4%  
78 1.3% 1.3%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 1.4% 100%  
72 1.3% 98.6%  
73 6% 97%  
74 8% 92%  
75 10% 83%  
76 66% 73% Median, Majority
77 5% 7% Last Result
78 2% 2%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 3% 99.9%  
71 5% 97%  
72 5% 91%  
73 7% 86%  
74 6% 79%  
75 72% 73% Median
76 0.5% 0.7% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 2% 99.7%  
70 2% 98%  
71 10% 96%  
72 12% 86%  
73 65% 74% Median
74 4% 9% Last Result
75 5% 5%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.5%  
64 7% 97%  
65 10% 90%  
66 72% 80% Last Result, Median
67 6% 8%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.7% 0.8%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 6% 99.8% Last Result
62 3% 94%  
63 12% 91%  
64 71% 79% Median
65 5% 8%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.2% 1.3%  
68 1.1% 1.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 1.4% 99.9%  
61 4% 98.6% Last Result
62 15% 95%  
63 70% 80% Median
64 6% 10%  
65 2% 4%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 1.2% 99.9%  
59 7% 98.7%  
60 12% 92%  
61 6% 80%  
62 63% 73% Median
63 1.1% 10%  
64 8% 9%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 5% 99.9% Last Result
59 1.5% 95%  
60 9% 94%  
61 77% 85% Median
62 2% 8%  
63 5% 6%  
64 0.3% 1.5%  
65 1.1% 1.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 10% 99.6%  
59 5% 90%  
60 3% 85%  
61 16% 82% Last Result
62 65% 67% Median
63 1.2% 1.3%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 2% 99.9%  
58 4% 97%  
59 10% 93%  
60 72% 83% Median
61 8% 11%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.5% 100%  
55 2% 99.5%  
56 6% 97%  
57 8% 91% Last Result
58 9% 83%  
59 72% 74% Median
60 1.1% 3%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.6%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.8% 99.9%  
53 7% 99.1%  
54 12% 92%  
55 4% 80%  
56 66% 76% Median
57 9% 10%  
58 1.1% 1.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.8% 99.9%  
53 7% 99.1%  
54 6% 92% Last Result
55 5% 87%  
56 78% 81% Median
57 1.1% 3%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.6% 0.7%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 4% 99.3%  
47 16% 95%  
48 4% 79%  
49 71% 75% Median
50 2% 4%  
51 0.6% 1.1%  
52 0.5% 0.5%  
53 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.5%  
46 10% 97%  
47 70% 88% Last Result, Median
48 11% 18%  
49 4% 6%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.5% 100%  
41 4% 99.4%  
42 14% 95%  
43 76% 81% Median
44 1.5% 5%  
45 1.4% 3%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.5%  
40 69% 98.9% Median
41 24% 30%  
42 2% 6%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.9% 1.5%  
45 0.1% 0.6%  
46 0.5% 0.5%  
47 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.4% 100%  
33 1.2% 99.6%  
34 75% 98% Median
35 14% 24%  
36 6% 10%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.6% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 14% 98%  
27 67% 84% Median
28 7% 16%  
29 9% 10%  
30 0.9% 1.0%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations