Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 25–28 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.6% 20.0–23.3% 19.6–23.8% 19.2–24.2% 18.4–25.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.9–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.1–13.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 8.0–11.6% 7.5–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.2% 8.2–10.5% 7.8–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
50Plus 3.1% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.0% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.9% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%
DENK 2.1% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.4% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 31–35 31–36 31–38 29–39
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14–17 13–18 12–18 12–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 13–15 12–16 12–17 11–18
GroenLinks 14 14 12–16 12–16 12–17 11–17
Democraten 66 19 14 11–16 11–17 11–17 11–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 10–13 10–15 10–15 10–15
Socialistische Partij 14 9 7–10 6–10 6–10 6–11
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
50Plus 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–9 4–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–5
DENK 3 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.0% 99.6%  
30 0.7% 98.6%  
31 11% 98%  
32 37% 87% Median
33 12% 50% Last Result
34 5% 38%  
35 25% 34%  
36 5% 9%  
37 0.9% 4%  
38 0.4% 3%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.9%  
13 5% 98.9%  
14 24% 94%  
15 43% 69% Median
16 16% 27%  
17 8% 11%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.3% 0.6%  
20 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.8%  
13 5% 96%  
14 44% 92% Median
15 4% 48%  
16 13% 44%  
17 23% 31%  
18 7% 7%  
19 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 2% 100%  
12 3% 98%  
13 8% 95%  
14 66% 87% Median
15 12% 20%  
16 5% 8%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.6% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.4%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9%  
12 12% 99.3%  
13 12% 88%  
14 41% 76% Last Result, Median
15 18% 35%  
16 14% 17%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 10% 99.7%  
12 24% 90%  
13 11% 65%  
14 10% 54% Median
15 7% 44%  
16 27% 37%  
17 8% 10%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.9%  
10 26% 99.6%  
11 38% 74% Median
12 14% 36%  
13 13% 22%  
14 3% 9%  
15 6% 6%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 10% 99.8%  
7 6% 90%  
8 23% 85%  
9 18% 62% Median
10 43% 44%  
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 13% 98% Last Result
6 44% 84% Median
7 32% 41%  
8 8% 8%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100% Last Result
5 16% 98%  
6 44% 82% Median
7 34% 38%  
8 2% 5%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 11% 99.6%  
4 8% 88%  
5 37% 80% Last Result, Median
6 42% 43%  
7 0.4% 0.5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.5% 100%  
2 46% 98.5%  
3 47% 53% Last Result, Median
4 5% 6%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 43% 99.9%  
2 42% 57% Median
3 13% 15% Last Result
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 82 99.9% 80–86 79–86 79–88 76–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 82 99.8% 79–87 79–87 78–87 77–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 59% 74–82 74–82 74–82 72–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 44% 72–79 71–80 71–80 70–80
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 73 2% 71–74 68–75 67–75 66–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 68 0% 66–73 65–75 64–75 64–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 68 0.1% 66–71 65–71 64–73 61–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 66 0% 63–70 62–73 62–73 61–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 62 0% 59–67 58–68 58–68 58–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 60–66 59–67 58–68 57–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 63 0% 61–67 60–67 60–67 58–69
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 61–66 60–66 58–67 57–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 62 0% 59–63 57–64 56–67 56–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 62 0% 59–65 58–66 58–66 55–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 59 0% 57–65 56–66 55–66 55–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 46 0% 45–50 44–51 44–54 43–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 47 0% 46–52 45–52 45–53 43–53
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 41–45 40–46 39–47 39–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 34–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 27–32 27–32 27–33 25–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 30 0% 27–31 26–31 25–32 24–34

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.9% 99.9% Majority
77 0.7% 99.1%  
78 0.7% 98%  
79 5% 98%  
80 8% 92% Median
81 5% 84%  
82 32% 79%  
83 9% 46%  
84 9% 38%  
85 19% 29% Last Result
86 6% 10%  
87 0.9% 4%  
88 0.4% 3%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.8% Majority
77 2% 99.7%  
78 2% 98%  
79 7% 96%  
80 3% 89% Median
81 4% 86%  
82 39% 82%  
83 9% 44%  
84 9% 34%  
85 2% 25%  
86 13% 24%  
87 10% 11%  
88 0.6% 0.6%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.5% 99.8%  
73 0.8% 99.3%  
74 9% 98.6%  
75 31% 90% Median
76 3% 59% Majority
77 9% 56% Last Result
78 4% 46%  
79 17% 42%  
80 4% 25%  
81 10% 21%  
82 8% 11%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.7%  
71 8% 99.0%  
72 27% 91% Median
73 7% 64%  
74 3% 56% Last Result
75 10% 54%  
76 8% 44% Majority
77 16% 36%  
78 4% 21%  
79 7% 16%  
80 9% 10%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 1.0% 99.8%  
67 4% 98.8%  
68 2% 95%  
69 1.1% 93%  
70 2% 92%  
71 14% 90% Median
72 12% 76%  
73 25% 64%  
74 31% 39%  
75 6% 8%  
76 0.7% 2% Majority
77 0.6% 1.4%  
78 0.5% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 5% 99.6%  
65 4% 95%  
66 34% 91% Median
67 2% 57%  
68 8% 55%  
69 4% 47%  
70 7% 44%  
71 15% 36%  
72 7% 22%  
73 8% 14%  
74 0.9% 6%  
75 6% 6%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.6% 100%  
62 1.1% 99.4%  
63 0.3% 98%  
64 0.9% 98%  
65 6% 97%  
66 8% 91% Median
67 3% 83%  
68 32% 80%  
69 11% 48%  
70 8% 37%  
71 25% 29%  
72 1.4% 5%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 7% 99.2%  
63 34% 92% Median
64 2% 58%  
65 4% 56%  
66 8% 52%  
67 4% 43%  
68 5% 39%  
69 14% 35%  
70 12% 20%  
71 2% 8%  
72 0.1% 6%  
73 6% 6%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
58 8% 99.5%  
59 2% 91%  
60 32% 89% Median
61 7% 58%  
62 4% 50%  
63 6% 46%  
64 16% 40%  
65 4% 24%  
66 3% 20%  
67 9% 18%  
68 9% 9%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 4% 99.0%  
59 0.8% 95%  
60 36% 94% Median
61 10% 58% Last Result
62 5% 49%  
63 5% 44%  
64 4% 38%  
65 7% 35%  
66 21% 28%  
67 3% 7%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.1% 0.8%  
70 0.6% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.7%  
59 0.7% 99.3%  
60 7% 98.6%  
61 31% 92% Median
62 4% 61%  
63 12% 58%  
64 4% 46%  
65 13% 42%  
66 13% 29%  
67 15% 16%  
68 0.7% 1.4%  
69 0.3% 0.7%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 2% 99.9%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 1.3% 95%  
61 5% 94%  
62 8% 89% Median
63 7% 82%  
64 44% 75%  
65 19% 31%  
66 8% 12% Last Result
67 2% 4%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 4% 99.8%  
57 2% 95%  
58 3% 93%  
59 11% 90%  
60 3% 80% Median
61 21% 76% Last Result
62 34% 55%  
63 15% 22%  
64 2% 7%  
65 2% 5%  
66 0.3% 3%  
67 0.6% 3%  
68 0.3% 2%  
69 0.1% 2%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.3%  
57 0.4% 99.1%  
58 6% 98.7%  
59 6% 93%  
60 3% 87% Median
61 5% 84%  
62 34% 79%  
63 13% 45%  
64 20% 32%  
65 2% 12%  
66 9% 10%  
67 0.5% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
55 3% 99.7%  
56 6% 96%  
57 33% 91% Median
58 2% 57%  
59 8% 55%  
60 5% 48%  
61 6% 43%  
62 17% 37%  
63 0.6% 20%  
64 4% 19%  
65 10% 15%  
66 5% 5%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
43 0.9% 99.5%  
44 5% 98.6%  
45 7% 94%  
46 39% 87% Median
47 11% 49%  
48 2% 38%  
49 23% 36%  
50 5% 13%  
51 5% 8%  
52 0.7% 4%  
53 0.7% 3%  
54 0.4% 3%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.7%  
44 1.0% 99.5%  
45 5% 98.5%  
46 38% 94% Median
47 10% 56%  
48 2% 46%  
49 3% 44%  
50 6% 40%  
51 12% 34%  
52 19% 23% Last Result
53 4% 4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 4% 99.7%  
40 4% 96%  
41 11% 91%  
42 3% 80% Median
43 20% 77%  
44 38% 58%  
45 14% 20%  
46 3% 6%  
47 1.0% 3% Last Result
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 3% 99.2%  
33 4% 96% Last Result
34 37% 93% Median
35 11% 56%  
36 12% 45%  
37 2% 33%  
38 25% 31%  
39 4% 6%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.6% 0.7%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.6%  
26 1.3% 98.8%  
27 8% 98%  
28 42% 90% Last Result, Median
29 3% 48%  
30 9% 45%  
31 23% 36%  
32 10% 13%  
33 1.3% 3%  
34 0.7% 1.3%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.1%  
26 6% 97%  
27 13% 91%  
28 7% 78% Median
29 16% 71%  
30 35% 56%  
31 17% 20%  
32 2% 4%  
33 0.8% 1.4%  
34 0.2% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations