Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 4–9 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.3% 16.5–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 27 24–28 24–28 24–28 24–29
Partij van de Arbeid 9 21 20–21 20–22 19–24 18–24
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 18–19 17–19 17–20 16–21
Forum voor Democratie 2 15 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–17
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–15 12–15 12–16 12–17
Democraten 66 19 13 13–14 12–14 12–15 11–15
GroenLinks 14 12 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 7–11
50Plus 4 8 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
ChristenUnie 5 5 5–6 5–7 5–7 4–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–6
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 12% 100%  
25 5% 88%  
26 11% 83%  
27 46% 72% Median
28 25% 27%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.8% 100%  
19 4% 99.2%  
20 37% 95%  
21 50% 58% Median
22 5% 8%  
23 0.2% 3%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.7%  
17 6% 99.0%  
18 72% 93% Median
19 17% 20%  
20 2% 4% Last Result
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 1.0% 100%  
14 47% 98.9%  
15 11% 52% Median
16 21% 42%  
17 20% 21%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 6% 100%  
13 26% 94%  
14 20% 68% Median
15 44% 48%  
16 3% 4%  
17 1.0% 1.0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.0% 99.9%  
12 5% 98.9%  
13 77% 94% Median
14 14% 17%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 2% 100%  
11 47% 98%  
12 39% 51% Median
13 9% 12%  
14 3% 3% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.1% 100%  
8 10% 98.9%  
9 82% 89% Median
10 6% 7%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.8% 100%  
6 11% 99.2%  
7 30% 88%  
8 58% 58% Median
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 64% 99.0% Last Result, Median
6 25% 35%  
7 9% 9%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 27% 99.8%  
4 71% 73% Median
5 1.3% 2% Last Result
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 37% 100%  
3 59% 63% Last Result, Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 54% 100% Median
2 45% 46%  
3 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 81 99.9% 78–81 78–83 77–83 76–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 34% 74–78 74–78 71–78 71–80
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 74 13% 72–76 72–77 72–77 71–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 74 25% 73–76 72–76 70–76 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 71 0.1% 70–73 70–73 69–74 67–75
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 63–67 63–68 63–68 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 63–67 61–67 61–67 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 64 0% 61–65 60–65 60–65 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 62 0% 58–63 58–63 58–64 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 61 0% 58–62 58–62 58–63 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 60 0% 58–61 58–61 57–62 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 59 0% 57–60 57–60 56–61 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 56–60 55–60 54–60 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 56 0% 54–58 54–58 53–58 53–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 54 0% 52–55 52–55 51–56 50–57
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 48 0% 46–49 46–51 45–51 43–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 44–48 44–49 44–50 44–50
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 41 0% 38–42 38–43 38–44 37–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 38–42 38–42 38–43 37–44
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 35 0% 33–36 33–37 32–38 31–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 28 0% 26–28 25–29 25–30 24–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 2% 99.9% Majority
77 2% 98%  
78 11% 95%  
79 24% 84%  
80 5% 60% Median
81 46% 55%  
82 2% 9%  
83 6% 7%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 3% 100%  
72 0.3% 97%  
73 0.5% 97%  
74 9% 96%  
75 53% 87% Median
76 6% 34% Majority
77 4% 28% Last Result
78 22% 24%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.6% 0.7%  
81 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.6% 99.9%  
72 22% 99.3%  
73 4% 77%  
74 46% 73% Median
75 14% 27%  
76 6% 13% Majority
77 7% 7%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 3% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 97%  
72 3% 97%  
73 20% 94%  
74 43% 74% Last Result, Median
75 6% 30%  
76 22% 25% Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0.6% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 1.1% 100%  
68 1.2% 98.9%  
69 0.5% 98%  
70 16% 97%  
71 65% 81% Median
72 3% 16%  
73 9% 13%  
74 3% 4%  
75 0.7% 0.8%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.9% 99.9%  
63 22% 99.0%  
64 4% 77%  
65 42% 73% Median
66 20% 31% Last Result
67 2% 11%  
68 7% 9%  
69 1.4% 2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 6% 99.9% Last Result
62 2% 94%  
63 4% 91%  
64 17% 87%  
65 43% 70% Median
66 3% 27%  
67 23% 24%  
68 0.5% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.4% 100%  
60 7% 99.6%  
61 4% 92%  
62 14% 89%  
63 9% 75%  
64 41% 66% Median
65 23% 24%  
66 0.4% 0.9%  
67 0.5% 0.5%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 13% 99.7%  
59 2% 87%  
60 5% 84%  
61 27% 79% Last Result
62 4% 52% Median
63 43% 48%  
64 4% 5%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 1.1% 99.8%  
58 15% 98.7%  
59 3% 84%  
60 8% 81%  
61 63% 73% Last Result, Median
62 6% 10%  
63 4% 4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 1.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 98.9%  
57 4% 98.6%  
58 15% 95%  
59 25% 80% Median
60 45% 55%  
61 6% 10%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 4% 99.3%  
57 13% 95%  
58 7% 82%  
59 28% 76% Median
60 43% 47%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.4% 1.1%  
63 0.6% 0.8%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.3% 100%  
54 3% 99.7%  
55 5% 97%  
56 17% 92%  
57 41% 74% Last Result, Median
58 5% 33%  
59 5% 28%  
60 21% 23%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 4% 99.6%  
54 15% 95% Last Result
55 8% 80%  
56 42% 72% Median
57 6% 30%  
58 21% 23%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 1.2% 100%  
51 2% 98.7%  
52 16% 97%  
53 9% 81%  
54 24% 72% Median
55 43% 48%  
56 4% 4%  
57 0.6% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 1.4% 100%  
44 0.1% 98.6%  
45 2% 98%  
46 26% 97%  
47 6% 70% Last Result
48 15% 65% Median
49 43% 50%  
50 0.6% 7%  
51 5% 6%  
52 1.3% 1.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0.2% 100%  
44 11% 99.8%  
45 3% 89%  
46 5% 85%  
47 9% 80%  
48 62% 72% Median
49 6% 10%  
50 3% 3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.9%  
38 21% 98%  
39 2% 77%  
40 22% 74% Median
41 41% 53%  
42 4% 11%  
43 2% 7%  
44 5% 5%  
45 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 1.3% 99.9%  
38 11% 98.7%  
39 7% 88%  
40 10% 81%  
41 25% 71% Median
42 43% 46%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 2% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 98%  
33 25% 97%  
34 17% 72%  
35 5% 54% Median
36 43% 50%  
37 3% 7%  
38 4% 4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.5% 100%  
25 5% 98%  
26 27% 94%  
27 8% 66% Median
28 51% 58%  
29 3% 7%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations