Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 7–13 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.1% 14.5–19.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.1% 11.0–13.3% 10.7–13.7% 10.5–14.0% 10.0–14.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.9% 10.8–13.1% 10.5–13.4% 10.2–13.7% 9.8–14.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.7% 8.0–12.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.7% 8.0–12.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.2% 8.2–10.3% 8.0–10.6% 7.7–10.9% 7.3–11.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.1% 6.3–8.1% 6.0–8.4% 5.8–8.6% 5.5–9.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.4% 5.6–7.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.2–7.9% 4.9–8.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.9% 4.2–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.2% 3.6–6.7%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.4% 2.9–4.2% 2.7–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.3–4.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.9% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.3%
DENK 2.1% 0.9% 0.6–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 27 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
GroenLinks 14 17 16–22 15–22 15–22 15–22
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 17–20 16–20 15–21 15–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 14–16 13–18 13–18 13–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 12–15 12–15 11–15 11–16
Democraten 66 19 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 9 9–10 8–11 8–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 8 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9
50Plus 4 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 4–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
DENK 3 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 2% 99.7%  
24 5% 98%  
25 35% 92%  
26 6% 57%  
27 6% 51% Median
28 39% 45%  
29 5% 6%  
30 1.2% 1.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 7% 100%  
16 32% 93%  
17 22% 61% Median
18 6% 39%  
19 14% 33%  
20 5% 19%  
21 1.0% 14%  
22 13% 13%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 4% 99.9%  
16 2% 95%  
17 7% 93%  
18 8% 87%  
19 42% 78% Median
20 32% 36% Last Result
21 2% 4%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 38% 98%  
14 31% 60% Median
15 17% 29%  
16 5% 12%  
17 7% 7%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 8% 99.8%  
14 17% 91%  
15 39% 74% Median
16 26% 36%  
17 3% 9%  
18 6% 6%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 4% 100%  
12 7% 96%  
13 17% 89%  
14 44% 72% Median
15 26% 28%  
16 1.5% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 18% 99.8%  
10 8% 82%  
11 35% 74% Median
12 34% 38%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 6% 99.9%  
9 54% 94% Median
10 32% 40%  
11 7% 8%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100% Last Result
6 7% 96%  
7 34% 89%  
8 53% 55% Median
9 2% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9% Last Result
5 31% 97%  
6 55% 66% Median
7 6% 11%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.8% 100%  
4 44% 99.2%  
5 23% 55% Last Result, Median
6 31% 33%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 24% 99.9% Last Result
4 54% 76% Median
5 21% 22%  
6 1.5% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 48% 84% Median
2 35% 36%  
3 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 87% 75–80 72–81 71–82 71–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 77 68% 74–80 74–80 74–81 73–81
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 75 34% 73–78 73–79 70–80 70–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 74 40% 70–76 70–76 70–78 70–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 10% 70–75 68–76 67–78 67–78
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 64–69 62–70 62–70 60–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 61–67 60–70 59–70 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 57–63 56–65 55–65 55–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 56–61 55–62 53–64 53–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 60 0% 58–62 56–62 56–63 54–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 60 0% 56–61 56–61 56–62 55–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 54–58 54–58 53–61 52–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 52–57 51–59 49–59 49–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 53 0% 48–55 48–55 47–55 47–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 52 0% 49–53 49–54 49–54 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 39–43 39–44 38–46 36–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 39–43 38–45 38–45 38–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 40 0% 38–42 38–43 38–44 37–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 36–39 34–39 34–41 33–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 28–31 28–32 27–33 26–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 25 0% 24–26 24–27 23–28 22–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.3% 100%  
71 4% 99.7%  
72 0.9% 96%  
73 4% 95%  
74 0.7% 91%  
75 4% 90%  
76 6% 87% Majority
77 18% 81% Last Result
78 47% 63% Median
79 4% 15%  
80 3% 11%  
81 5% 8%  
82 3% 3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 21% 99.4%  
75 10% 78%  
76 1.3% 68% Majority
77 39% 67% Median
78 13% 28%  
79 4% 15%  
80 6% 11%  
81 5% 5%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 3% 100%  
71 0.7% 97%  
72 0.2% 97%  
73 37% 96%  
74 3% 59% Median
75 22% 56%  
76 19% 34% Majority
77 2% 15%  
78 6% 12%  
79 2% 7%  
80 4% 5% Last Result
81 0.5% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 10% 99.8%  
71 2% 89%  
72 7% 88%  
73 24% 81%  
74 9% 57%  
75 9% 49% Median
76 36% 40% Majority
77 0.4% 4%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.1% 2%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.4%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 4% 99.7%  
68 2% 96%  
69 1.2% 94%  
70 3% 93%  
71 4% 89%  
72 5% 86%  
73 12% 80%  
74 53% 69% Last Result, Median
75 6% 16%  
76 5% 10% Majority
77 1.1% 4%  
78 3% 3%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 2% 100%  
61 0% 98%  
62 5% 98%  
63 0.6% 93%  
64 33% 92%  
65 24% 59% Median
66 8% 35% Last Result
67 13% 27%  
68 3% 14%  
69 4% 11%  
70 5% 8%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100%  
58 0% 99.7%  
59 4% 99.7%  
60 0.3% 95%  
61 5% 95% Last Result
62 19% 90%  
63 3% 71%  
64 15% 68%  
65 33% 53% Median
66 8% 20%  
67 4% 12%  
68 0.5% 7%  
69 2% 7%  
70 5% 5%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.3% 100%  
54 0% 99.7%  
55 4% 99.7%  
56 3% 96%  
57 4% 93%  
58 2% 89% Last Result
59 29% 87%  
60 5% 58%  
61 32% 53% Median
62 9% 21%  
63 6% 13%  
64 1.3% 7%  
65 5% 6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 4% 100%  
54 0.9% 96%  
55 2% 95%  
56 5% 93%  
57 20% 88% Last Result
58 15% 68%  
59 33% 54% Median
60 7% 20%  
61 5% 13%  
62 4% 8%  
63 0.4% 4%  
64 4% 4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.3%  
56 7% 99.0%  
57 2% 92%  
58 9% 90%  
59 20% 81%  
60 48% 61% Median
61 0.9% 14%  
62 8% 13%  
63 4% 4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 1.3% 99.8%  
56 13% 98%  
57 23% 85%  
58 7% 63%  
59 6% 56%  
60 10% 50% Median
61 35% 40%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 1.1% 99.6%  
53 3% 98%  
54 12% 96%  
55 28% 84%  
56 41% 55% Median
57 1.0% 14%  
58 9% 13%  
59 0.5% 4%  
60 0.4% 3%  
61 0.5% 3% Last Result
62 0% 2%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 4% 100%  
50 0.2% 96%  
51 3% 96%  
52 6% 92%  
53 12% 87%  
54 22% 75% Last Result
55 33% 53% Median
56 7% 20%  
57 7% 13%  
58 0.6% 6%  
59 5% 5%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 4% 99.9%  
48 10% 96%  
49 0.5% 86%  
50 4% 85%  
51 0.5% 81%  
52 27% 80%  
53 7% 53% Median
54 11% 46%  
55 33% 35%  
56 0.2% 2%  
57 1.5% 2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.9%  
49 15% 98%  
50 23% 83%  
51 5% 61%  
52 11% 56% Median
53 37% 45%  
54 6% 8%  
55 0.5% 2%  
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 1.2% 99.8%  
37 0.1% 98.7%  
38 3% 98.5%  
39 10% 95%  
40 5% 85%  
41 30% 80%  
42 5% 50% Last Result, Median
43 38% 45%  
44 4% 7%  
45 0.2% 3%  
46 1.4% 3%  
47 1.1% 1.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 5% 99.5%  
39 24% 94%  
40 17% 70%  
41 38% 53% Median
42 3% 15%  
43 7% 12%  
44 0.5% 6%  
45 4% 5%  
46 1.3% 1.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 14% 99.3%  
39 13% 85%  
40 36% 72% Median
41 21% 36%  
42 4% 14%  
43 5% 10%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.3% 1.5%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
34 4% 99.3%  
35 4% 95%  
36 47% 91%  
37 25% 43% Median
38 6% 19%  
39 7% 12%  
40 2% 5%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 98%  
28 39% 97% Last Result
29 16% 58% Median
30 26% 42%  
31 9% 16%  
32 3% 7%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.4% 2%  
35 1.0% 1.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 1.2% 100%  
23 2% 98.7%  
24 18% 97%  
25 58% 78% Median
26 11% 20%  
27 6% 9%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations