Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 18–23 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.0% 15.2–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 23 22–26 22–27 21–27 21–27
Partij van de Arbeid 9 19 18–22 18–22 18–22 18–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Forum voor Democratie 2 17 16–19 15–19 15–19 15–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Democraten 66 19 14 13–15 12–15 12–15 11–15
GroenLinks 14 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 11–16
Socialistische Partij 14 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
50Plus 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 5% 100%  
22 8% 95%  
23 41% 87% Median
24 19% 46%  
25 10% 27%  
26 9% 17%  
27 7% 8%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 20% 99.9%  
19 37% 79% Median
20 18% 42%  
21 13% 24%  
22 10% 11%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.9%  
17 22% 98.7%  
18 14% 77%  
19 30% 63% Median
20 32% 32% Last Result
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 6% 99.9%  
16 4% 93%  
17 39% 89% Median
18 37% 50%  
19 12% 13%  
20 1.0% 1.1%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.1% 100%  
13 14% 98.8%  
14 33% 85%  
15 40% 52% Median
16 9% 12%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.8% 100%  
12 6% 99.2%  
13 22% 93%  
14 30% 72% Median
15 42% 42%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 41% 99.3%  
13 30% 58% Median
14 26% 28% Last Result
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 28% 98%  
8 58% 70% Median
9 5% 12%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 2% 100%  
6 11% 98%  
7 63% 86% Median
8 20% 23%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.3% 100%  
5 33% 98.7% Last Result
6 64% 66% Median
7 1.5% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 26% 99.9%  
4 68% 74% Median
5 6% 6% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 61% 99.9% Median
3 37% 39% Last Result
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 27% 100%  
2 71% 73% Median
3 2% 2% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 78 88% 75–79 74–79 74–80 74–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 61% 74–78 73–80 73–80 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 75 19% 72–76 72–78 72–78 70–78
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 75 20% 72–76 72–76 71–77 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 71 0% 69–73 68–73 68–73 67–73
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 67 0% 64–69 64–69 64–69 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 64 0% 62–68 62–68 62–68 60–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 62 0% 61–66 60–66 60–67 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 59 0% 55–60 55–61 55–61 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 55–61 55–61 55–61 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 57 0% 55–60 55–61 55–61 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 57 0% 55–60 54–60 54–61 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 58 0% 55–59 54–59 53–60 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 55 0% 54–59 53–59 53–59 52–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 53 0% 50–54 49–55 49–55 48–56
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 49 0% 46–50 45–51 45–51 45–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 42–46 41–46 41–48 41–48
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 40 0% 38–41 38–42 38–42 37–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 38 0% 36–41 36–41 35–41 35–42
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 34 0% 32–36 32–36 32–37 31–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 29 0% 27–30 26–30 25–30 25–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 7% 99.8%  
75 5% 93%  
76 7% 88% Majority
77 17% 81% Median
78 36% 64%  
79 24% 28%  
80 3% 5%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.3% 100%  
72 0.8% 99.7%  
73 6% 98.9%  
74 11% 92%  
75 21% 81%  
76 6% 61% Median, Majority
77 36% 55% Last Result
78 9% 19%  
79 2% 10%  
80 7% 7%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.8% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.0%  
72 10% 98%  
73 20% 88%  
74 11% 68% Last Result, Median
75 38% 57%  
76 9% 19% Majority
77 1.0% 10%  
78 8% 9%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.4%  
72 10% 97%  
73 9% 87%  
74 10% 79%  
75 48% 68% Median
76 17% 20% Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 1.1% 1.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.4% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.6%  
67 0.3% 99.5%  
68 5% 99.2%  
69 13% 95%  
70 10% 82%  
71 40% 71% Median
72 19% 32%  
73 12% 12%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 1.0% 99.6%  
64 11% 98.6%  
65 9% 88%  
66 17% 79% Last Result
67 36% 61% Median
68 8% 25%  
69 16% 17%  
70 0.3% 0.6%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.6% 100%  
61 0.9% 99.4% Last Result
62 9% 98.5%  
63 14% 90%  
64 39% 76% Median
65 11% 37%  
66 2% 26%  
67 14% 24%  
68 10% 10%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.5% 100% Last Result
59 0.8% 99.5%  
60 5% 98.7%  
61 13% 93%  
62 35% 81% Median
63 12% 45%  
64 11% 33%  
65 11% 22%  
66 8% 11%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.4% 100%  
54 0.7% 99.5%  
55 9% 98.8%  
56 13% 90%  
57 12% 77%  
58 9% 65% Median
59 46% 56%  
60 5% 11%  
61 6% 6%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.4% 100%  
54 0.7% 99.6%  
55 10% 99.0%  
56 17% 89%  
57 40% 72% Last Result, Median
58 7% 32%  
59 1.3% 24%  
60 10% 23%  
61 13% 14%  
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 10% 99.9%  
56 2% 90%  
57 38% 88% Median
58 14% 50%  
59 18% 36%  
60 13% 18%  
61 5% 5% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.6%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 6% 99.9%  
55 9% 93%  
56 8% 84% Median
57 40% 77%  
58 5% 36%  
59 13% 31%  
60 16% 19%  
61 3% 3% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.5%  
63 0.4% 0.4%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 4% 99.9%  
54 1.1% 96%  
55 19% 94%  
56 10% 75%  
57 10% 65% Median
58 43% 55%  
59 10% 13%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.4% 100%  
52 0.5% 99.6%  
53 4% 99.2%  
54 16% 95% Last Result
55 38% 79% Median
56 15% 41%  
57 4% 26%  
58 6% 22%  
59 15% 16%  
60 0.6% 0.7%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 1.1% 99.9%  
49 5% 98.8%  
50 11% 93%  
51 6% 82%  
52 15% 76% Median
53 44% 61%  
54 9% 17%  
55 6% 7%  
56 1.1% 1.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 8% 99.6%  
46 9% 92%  
47 20% 82% Last Result
48 6% 62% Median
49 40% 56%  
50 11% 16%  
51 6% 6%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 7% 100%  
42 45% 93% Last Result, Median
43 9% 48%  
44 5% 39%  
45 19% 35%  
46 11% 16%  
47 2% 5%  
48 3% 3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 100%  
37 1.1% 99.8%  
38 18% 98.7%  
39 15% 80%  
40 45% 66% Median
41 14% 21%  
42 6% 7%  
43 1.0% 1.4%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 4% 100%  
36 10% 96%  
37 8% 86%  
38 44% 78% Median
39 10% 34%  
40 13% 24%  
41 10% 11%  
42 1.1% 1.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 13% 99.4%  
33 12% 86%  
34 47% 74% Median
35 9% 27%  
36 15% 18%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 5% 97%  
27 18% 93%  
28 23% 75%  
29 14% 52% Median
30 37% 38%  
31 0.7% 0.7%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations