Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 25–30 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 14.7% 13.9–15.5% 13.6–15.8% 13.4–16.0% 13.1–16.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 22 20–24 20–24 20–24 20–25
Partij van de Arbeid 9 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 17–22
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 18–20 18–20 17–20 17–20
Forum voor Democratie 2 18 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–15 14–16 14–17 13–18
GroenLinks 14 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 11–15
Democraten 66 19 12 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–15
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–8
50Plus 4 7 7 6–8 6–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 24% 100%  
21 15% 76%  
22 16% 61% Median
23 34% 46%  
24 12% 12%  
25 0.3% 0.8%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 12% 100%  
18 8% 88%  
19 34% 81% Median
20 37% 46%  
21 8% 9%  
22 1.0% 1.0%  
23 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 28% 97%  
19 43% 69% Median
20 26% 27% Last Result
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.4% 100%  
16 24% 98.5%  
17 14% 75%  
18 28% 61% Median
19 31% 33%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 16% 99.4%  
15 75% 84% Median
16 6% 9%  
17 1.1% 3%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.9%  
12 42% 99.5%  
13 27% 57% Median
14 30% 30% Last Result
15 0.8% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 2% 100%  
11 24% 98%  
12 36% 74% Median
13 34% 38%  
14 2% 4%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.9% 100%  
8 25% 99.1%  
9 41% 75% Median
10 33% 33%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 32% 98%  
7 61% 66% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.6% 100%  
6 5% 99.4%  
7 87% 94% Median
8 6% 7%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 29% 99.9%  
5 64% 71% Last Result, Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 32% 100%  
3 63% 68% Last Result, Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 44% 100%  
2 55% 56% Median
3 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 75 25% 74–76 73–77 73–78 71–80
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 75 29% 72–78 72–78 72–78 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 43% 72–78 72–78 72–78 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 74 25% 70–76 70–77 70–77 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 68 0% 67–70 67–71 67–73 66–73
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 63–69 63–69 63–69 63–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 63 0% 60–66 60–66 60–66 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 62 0% 58–65 58–65 58–65 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 56 0% 54–57 54–57 54–59 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 56 0% 55–58 54–59 54–59 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 56 0% 53–59 53–59 53–59 53–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 56 0% 54–58 54–58 53–58 52–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 55 0% 51–57 51–58 51–58 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 53 0% 52–54 52–55 51–56 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 49 0% 48–51 47–51 47–52 46–53
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 46 0% 44–48 44–48 44–49 43–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 41 0% 40–43 40–43 39–44 39–45
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 41 0% 38–42 38–42 38–43 38–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 37 0% 35–39 35–39 35–40 34–40
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 34 0% 32–35 32–35 32–37 32–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 26–28 25–28 25–30 24–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.4% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.6%  
72 0.2% 99.5%  
73 9% 99.3%  
74 15% 91%  
75 51% 76% Median
76 17% 25% Majority
77 3% 8%  
78 4% 5%  
79 0.4% 0.9%  
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0.4% 0.4%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 11% 99.9%  
73 0.8% 89%  
74 36% 88%  
75 24% 52% Median
76 4% 29% Majority
77 4% 24%  
78 20% 20%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 1.1% 99.9%  
72 19% 98.8%  
73 6% 79%  
74 9% 73%  
75 21% 64%  
76 14% 43% Median, Majority
77 5% 29% Last Result
78 24% 24%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 1.1% 100%  
70 19% 98.9%  
71 6% 79%  
72 8% 73%  
73 5% 65%  
74 19% 61% Last Result, Median
75 17% 42%  
76 16% 25% Majority
77 10% 10%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.4% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.6%  
66 0.9% 99.6%  
67 10% 98.7%  
68 41% 89%  
69 28% 48% Median
70 14% 20%  
71 3% 6%  
72 0.3% 3%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.4% 100%  
63 10% 99.6%  
64 17% 90%  
65 17% 73%  
66 27% 56% Last Result, Median
67 3% 29%  
68 6% 26%  
69 20% 20%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 19% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 80% Last Result
62 22% 80%  
63 13% 58%  
64 5% 46% Median
65 27% 41%  
66 14% 14%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 19% 99.9% Last Result
59 0.7% 81%  
60 9% 80%  
61 18% 71%  
62 10% 52% Median
63 17% 43%  
64 14% 26%  
65 12% 12%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.4% 100%  
52 0% 99.6%  
53 0.2% 99.6%  
54 14% 99.4%  
55 25% 86%  
56 38% 61% Median
57 18% 23%  
58 1.5% 4%  
59 0.4% 3%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.4%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 1.5% 100%  
54 6% 98.5%  
55 36% 92%  
56 13% 56% Median
57 23% 43%  
58 14% 20%  
59 4% 6%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 19% 99.9%  
54 1.4% 81%  
55 22% 79%  
56 12% 57%  
57 3% 45% Last Result, Median
58 28% 42%  
59 13% 14%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 2% 100%  
53 1.3% 98%  
54 25% 96%  
55 10% 72%  
56 31% 62% Median
57 4% 31%  
58 27% 27%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 19% 100%  
52 1.4% 81%  
53 10% 79%  
54 18% 69% Last Result
55 9% 52% Median
56 15% 43%  
57 18% 28%  
58 10% 10%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 5% 99.9%  
52 7% 95%  
53 47% 88% Median
54 35% 41%  
55 1.3% 6%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.7%  
59 0.4% 0.4%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.4% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.6%  
47 8% 99.5%  
48 30% 91%  
49 27% 61% Median
50 18% 34%  
51 12% 16%  
52 2% 5%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.7% 100%  
44 17% 99.3%  
45 4% 83%  
46 34% 79% Median
47 19% 45% Last Result
48 23% 26%  
49 1.4% 3%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 4% 99.8%  
40 39% 96%  
41 14% 56% Median
42 18% 42% Last Result
43 22% 24%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.9%  
46 0.4% 0.4%  
47 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 10% 99.9%  
39 7% 90%  
40 17% 83%  
41 20% 66% Median
42 42% 46%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.4% 1.3%  
45 0.8% 0.8%  
46 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 2% 100%  
35 20% 98%  
36 26% 78%  
37 3% 51% Median
38 34% 48%  
39 11% 14%  
40 4% 4%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 17% 99.7%  
33 3% 83%  
34 30% 80% Median
35 45% 49%  
36 1.3% 5%  
37 1.3% 3%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.5% 100%  
25 7% 99.5%  
26 22% 92%  
27 29% 70% Median
28 37% 41%  
29 1.1% 5%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations