Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 2–7 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 19 19–21 18–21 18–21 17–21
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 19–20 18–20 18–20 18–20
Partij van de Arbeid 9 19 18–21 18–21 18–21 18–21
Forum voor Democratie 2 18 17–19 17–19 17–19 16–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–17 14–17 14–17 14–19
GroenLinks 14 14 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–15
Democraten 66 19 12 11–13 11–13 11–14 11–14
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
50Plus 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.9% 100%  
18 9% 99.1%  
19 44% 90% Median
20 26% 46%  
21 20% 20%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 9% 99.8%  
19 26% 91%  
20 65% 65% Last Result, Median
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 24% 99.7%  
19 27% 75% Median
20 18% 49%  
21 30% 31%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 14% 98%  
18 59% 85% Median
19 25% 26%  
20 0.5% 0.8%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 32% 100%  
15 23% 68% Median
16 27% 46%  
17 17% 18%  
18 0.8% 2%  
19 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.3% 100%  
12 12% 98.7%  
13 33% 87%  
14 46% 54% Last Result, Median
15 7% 7%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 43% 99.6%  
12 44% 57% Median
13 10% 13%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 19% 99.3%  
9 53% 80% Median
10 26% 27%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100% Last Result
6 30% 99.7%  
7 68% 69% Median
8 1.1% 1.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.6% 100%  
6 25% 99.4%  
7 51% 74% Median
8 23% 23%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 24% 99.7%  
5 67% 76% Last Result, Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 15% 100%  
3 79% 85% Last Result, Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 20% 100%  
2 80% 80% Median
3 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 76 52% 75–78 75–79 75–79 73–79
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 21% 73–76 73–76 73–76 72–78
Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 73 1.3% 72–75 71–75 71–75 70–77
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 72 0.9% 71–74 71–74 71–74 71–76
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 67 0% 66–69 66–69 66–69 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 67 0% 64–69 64–69 64–69 63–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 60–65 60–65 60–65 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 59 0% 58–63 58–63 58–63 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 55 0% 53–57 53–57 53–57 53–58
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 54 0% 53–56 53–57 53–57 52–57
Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 55 0% 53–56 53–56 52–56 52–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 53 0% 51–56 51–56 51–56 51–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 53 0% 51–55 51–55 51–55 51–56
Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 61 51 0% 50–52 50–52 48–52 48–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 46 0% 45–49 45–49 45–50 45–50
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 47 0% 45–48 45–49 45–49 44–50
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 42 0% 40–43 40–43 39–43 39–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 42 39 0% 38–40 37–40 37–40 37–41
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 35 0% 33–37 33–37 33–37 33–38
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 35 0% 34–36 34–36 32–36 32–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 26–29 26–30 26–30 25–30

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.8%  
74 1.2% 99.4%  
75 46% 98%  
76 35% 52% Median, Majority
77 8% 18%  
78 3% 10%  
79 7% 7%  
80 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 25% 99.5%  
74 33% 74% Median
75 20% 41%  
76 20% 21% Majority
77 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 6% 99.5%  
72 32% 93% Median
73 44% 61%  
74 3% 17%  
75 13% 14%  
76 0.6% 1.3% Majority
77 0.6% 0.7%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.1% 99.7%  
71 18% 99.6%  
72 37% 81% Median
73 14% 44%  
74 29% 30% Last Result
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.8% 0.9% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.4%  
65 1.4% 99.2%  
66 44% 98% Last Result
67 39% 54% Median
68 5% 15%  
69 9% 10%  
70 1.3% 1.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.7% 99.9%  
64 14% 99.2%  
65 16% 86%  
66 14% 70%  
67 14% 56% Median
68 19% 42%  
69 21% 23%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 1.4% 1.5%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 30% 99.5%  
61 28% 70% Last Result, Median
62 16% 42%  
63 5% 26%  
64 1.1% 21%  
65 20% 20%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 30% 99.7% Last Result
59 26% 70% Median
60 3% 44%  
61 20% 42%  
62 2% 22%  
63 20% 20%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 17% 99.6%  
54 30% 83% Median
55 29% 53%  
56 3% 24%  
57 20% 21% Last Result
58 0.8% 1.2%  
59 0.4% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.3% 99.6%  
53 39% 99.3%  
54 15% 60% Median
55 10% 44%  
56 25% 34%  
57 9% 9%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 3% 99.7%  
53 14% 97% Median
54 33% 83%  
55 37% 50%  
56 11% 13%  
57 0.5% 1.3%  
58 0.7% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 14% 99.8%  
52 35% 86%  
53 2% 51% Median
54 13% 48%  
55 24% 35%  
56 8% 11%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 17% 99.8%  
52 28% 83% Median
53 16% 55%  
54 17% 39% Last Result
55 21% 22%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 3% 99.9%  
49 0.7% 97%  
50 33% 97% Median
51 41% 63%  
52 20% 22%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 42% 99.7%  
46 9% 58% Median
47 5% 48%  
48 33% 44%  
49 8% 11%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 1.1% 99.9%  
45 28% 98.9%  
46 13% 71% Median
47 36% 58% Last Result
48 12% 22%  
49 8% 10%  
50 1.3% 1.4%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 100%  
39 3% 99.8%  
40 7% 97%  
41 37% 90% Median
42 38% 53%  
43 12% 15%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.4% 1.5%  
46 0.6% 1.1%  
47 0.5% 0.5%  
48 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.4% 100%  
37 9% 99.6%  
38 4% 90% Median
39 51% 86%  
40 34% 34%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 28% 99.7%  
34 18% 71% Median
35 16% 53%  
36 8% 37%  
37 28% 28%  
38 0.6% 0.8%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 3% 100%  
33 1.2% 97%  
34 40% 96% Median
35 22% 56%  
36 32% 35%  
37 0.8% 2%  
38 0.6% 2%  
39 1.0% 1.0%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.8% 100%  
26 47% 99.2%  
27 24% 52% Median
28 9% 28%  
29 9% 19%  
30 9% 9%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations