Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 10–14 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.6% 16.6–18.7% 16.3–19.0% 16.1–19.3% 15.6–19.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.8% 11.0–12.7% 10.7–13.0% 10.5–13.2% 10.1–13.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.7% 9.9–11.6% 9.7–11.9% 9.5–12.1% 9.1–12.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.7% 8.9–10.5% 8.7–10.8% 8.5–11.0% 8.2–11.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.2% 8.4–10.0% 8.2–10.3% 8.0–10.5% 7.7–10.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.8% 8.0–9.6% 7.8–9.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.3% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.0–8.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.1% 5.5–6.8% 5.3–7.0% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 5.8% 5.2–6.5% 5.0–6.7% 4.9–6.9% 4.6–7.2%
50Plus 3.1% 5.3% 4.7–6.0% 4.6–6.2% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.7%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.3% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.7%
DENK 2.1% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 26 26–28 26–29 25–30
GroenLinks 14 18 18–20 17–20 16–20 15–20
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14–15 13–17 13–17 13–17
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 13–14 13–15 13–15 11–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 13–14 12–14 12–14 11–15
Democraten 66 19 10 10–12 9–13 9–13 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–10 9–10 8–10 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 9 8–9 8–9 7–10 7–11
50Plus 4 8 8 7–8 7–9 6–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 5 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.8%  
25 1.4% 99.7%  
26 89% 98% Median
27 4% 9%  
28 3% 6%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0.7% 100%  
16 3% 99.3%  
17 6% 97%  
18 79% 91% Median
19 2% 12%  
20 10% 10%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.9%  
15 10% 99.1%  
16 4% 89%  
17 83% 85% Median
18 2% 2%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 8% 99.7%  
14 71% 91% Median
15 12% 20%  
16 1.4% 9%  
17 7% 7%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.8% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.2%  
13 9% 98%  
14 81% 89% Median
15 6% 8%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 6% 98%  
13 14% 92%  
14 76% 78% Median
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 6% 100%  
10 71% 94% Median
11 8% 22%  
12 9% 14%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.0% 100%  
8 3% 99.0%  
9 13% 96%  
10 83% 84% Median
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 3% 100%  
8 18% 97%  
9 74% 78% Median
10 3% 4%  
11 0.9% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 3% 98%  
8 92% 95% Median
9 2% 3%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 75% 99.6% Median
5 21% 24% Last Result
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 14% 99.8% Last Result
4 16% 86%  
5 69% 70% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 24% 27%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 77 99.0% 77–80 76–81 76–81 75–83
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 75 13% 74–76 73–78 71–78 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 79% 74–76 74–77 74–77 73–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 73 15% 73–76 70–76 70–76 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 71 0.6% 71–72 70–73 70–74 69–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 67 0% 66–67 65–68 65–69 64–71
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 64–67 64–68 62–68 62–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 62 0% 62–64 61–64 61–65 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 59 0% 59–63 56–63 56–63 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 58–59 57–60 57–62 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 57 0% 57–58 56–58 56–60 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 54 0% 54–56 53–56 53–57 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 54 0% 53–56 53–56 52–57 52–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 50 0% 50–54 48–55 48–55 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 50 0% 49–51 49–52 49–53 48–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 40 0% 40–43 39–43 39–44 39–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 39–40 38–41 37–42 37–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 38 0% 37–41 36–42 36–42 36–43
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 37 0% 35–37 35–38 34–38 33–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 27–28 27–30 26–30 25–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 24 0% 24–28 22–29 22–29 22–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.8% 99.8%  
76 6% 99.0% Majority
77 70% 93% Median
78 1.2% 23%  
79 5% 22%  
80 7% 17%  
81 8% 10%  
82 1.3% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.3% 0.3%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.7% 99.8%  
71 2% 99.1%  
72 0.4% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 10% 95%  
75 72% 85% Median
76 5% 13% Majority
77 1.3% 8%  
78 7% 7%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 1.3% 99.6%  
74 12% 98%  
75 7% 86%  
76 73% 79% Median, Majority
77 4% 6% Last Result
78 0.4% 2%  
79 0.8% 1.3%  
80 0.1% 0.6%  
81 0.5% 0.5%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 5% 99.9%  
71 3% 95%  
72 1.1% 92%  
73 73% 91% Median
74 1.4% 17%  
75 1.4% 16%  
76 12% 15% Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.8%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 1.0% 99.7%  
70 6% 98.7%  
71 78% 93% Median
72 10% 15%  
73 2% 5%  
74 2% 3% Last Result
75 0.4% 1.0%  
76 0.2% 0.6% Majority
77 0.4% 0.4%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 7% 99.5%  
66 8% 93%  
67 77% 85% Median
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.7% 0.8%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 3% 99.7%  
63 1.2% 97%  
64 6% 96%  
65 73% 90% Median
66 3% 17% Last Result
67 6% 14%  
68 7% 8%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 6% 99.6%  
62 70% 93% Median
63 8% 23%  
64 11% 15%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.5% 1.1%  
67 0.4% 0.7%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 5% 100%  
57 0.1% 95%  
58 0.3% 95%  
59 73% 94% Median
60 1.4% 21%  
61 2% 20%  
62 3% 17%  
63 12% 14%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.8%  
57 6% 98.5% Last Result
58 6% 93%  
59 77% 87% Median
60 6% 10%  
61 1.0% 4%  
62 2% 3%  
63 1.0% 1.2%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 7% 99.5%  
57 73% 92% Median
58 14% 19%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.2% 3%  
61 0.9% 1.4%  
62 0.1% 0.5%  
63 0.4% 0.4%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.9% 99.7%  
53 6% 98.9%  
54 70% 93% Last Result, Median
55 8% 24%  
56 11% 16%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 1.2% 1.4%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 4% 99.7%  
53 8% 96%  
54 73% 88% Median
55 3% 14%  
56 8% 11%  
57 1.1% 3%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 5% 100%  
49 0.3% 95%  
50 68% 94% Median
51 4% 26%  
52 5% 22%  
53 2% 16%  
54 6% 15%  
55 8% 9%  
56 1.1% 1.2%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 2% 99.8%  
49 9% 98%  
50 71% 90% Median
51 9% 19%  
52 6% 9%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 5% 99.6%  
40 70% 94% Median
41 12% 24%  
42 2% 12%  
43 8% 10%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.9% 0.9%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 2% 99.9%  
38 3% 97%  
39 13% 95%  
40 75% 81% Median
41 3% 7%  
42 2% 3% Last Result
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.5%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.4% 100%  
36 7% 99.5%  
37 3% 93%  
38 73% 90% Median
39 3% 16%  
40 2% 14%  
41 5% 12%  
42 7% 7%  
43 0.7% 0.7%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.9% 99.9% Last Result
34 3% 99.0%  
35 9% 96%  
36 5% 87%  
37 74% 83% Median
38 7% 9%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 2% 98%  
27 10% 95%  
28 77% 86% Last Result, Median
29 1.2% 9%  
30 7% 8%  
31 0.6% 0.8%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 5% 100%  
23 1.2% 95%  
24 73% 94% Median
25 1.5% 21%  
26 5% 20%  
27 2% 14%  
28 6% 13%  
29 7% 7%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations