Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 10–18 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
50Plus 3.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 20 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–21
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 18–20 17–20 17–21 17–22
Partij van de Arbeid 9 17 17–19 16–20 16–21 16–21
Forum voor Democratie 2 18 17–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–16 12–16 12–16 12–17
Democraten 66 19 13 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–16
GroenLinks 14 13 11–13 11–13 10–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
50Plus 4 8 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–10
ChristenUnie 5 5 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.0% 100%  
18 12% 99.0%  
19 21% 87%  
20 54% 66% Median
21 12% 12%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 5% 100%  
18 8% 95%  
19 25% 87%  
20 57% 62% Last Result, Median
21 4% 4%  
22 0.7% 0.8%  
23 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 100%  
16 6% 99.7%  
17 55% 94% Median
18 6% 39%  
19 24% 32%  
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.9%  
16 8% 98.8%  
17 32% 90%  
18 48% 58% Median
19 9% 10%  
20 0.8% 0.8%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 10% 100%  
13 7% 90%  
14 55% 84% Median
15 9% 29%  
16 18% 20%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 20% 98%  
13 56% 79% Median
14 18% 23%  
15 3% 4%  
16 1.5% 1.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 3% 100%  
11 7% 97%  
12 32% 90%  
13 54% 57% Median
14 3% 3% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 16% 98%  
9 67% 82% Median
10 13% 16%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 3% 100%  
8 60% 97% Median
9 15% 37%  
10 22% 22%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 63% 99.7% Last Result, Median
6 33% 37%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 34% 99.9% Last Result
6 57% 66% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 52% 99.6% Last Result, Median
4 39% 48%  
5 9% 9%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 17% 100%  
3 80% 83% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 12% 72–76 71–77 71–79 69–79
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 2% 71–73 70–75 70–75 69–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 69 0% 69–73 68–73 68–74 67–75
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 72 0% 68–72 67–74 67–74 65–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 65 0% 63–67 61–68 61–68 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 63 0% 62–66 61–67 61–67 60–67
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 62–65 61–66 60–67 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 60 0% 58–62 57–62 57–63 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 55 0% 53–56 52–58 52–59 51–59
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 54 0% 51–55 50–56 49–57 47–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 52 0% 51–55 50–55 49–56 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 51 0% 50–54 49–54 49–54 49–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 52 0% 49–53 49–54 48–54 48–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 50 0% 49–52 49–53 49–53 47–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 47 0% 46–49 44–50 43–50 43–50
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 44–47 43–48 42–48 41–49
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 36–40 35–40 35–41 35–41
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 37 0% 37–39 36–40 35–40 35–41
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 34 0% 32–35 32–37 31–37 30–37
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 31 0% 31–35 29–35 29–35 29–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 26–29 25–30 25–30 25–30

Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 2% 100%  
70 0.5% 98%  
71 3% 98%  
72 6% 94%  
73 9% 88%  
74 11% 79%  
75 56% 68% Median
76 6% 12% Majority
77 0.8% 6% Last Result
78 0.2% 5%  
79 5% 5%  
80 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 2% 99.7%  
70 6% 98%  
71 41% 92% Median
72 19% 51%  
73 23% 32%  
74 3% 9%  
75 5% 7%  
76 1.4% 2% Majority
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 7% 99.2%  
69 47% 93% Median
70 8% 46%  
71 17% 38%  
72 10% 20%  
73 7% 11%  
74 3% 4%  
75 0.9% 0.9%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 2% 100%  
66 0.7% 98%  
67 4% 98%  
68 6% 94%  
69 4% 88%  
70 14% 84%  
71 18% 70%  
72 46% 52% Median
73 0.9% 6%  
74 5% 5% Last Result
75 0.3% 0.3%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 6% 99.8%  
62 2% 94%  
63 2% 92%  
64 19% 90%  
65 52% 71% Median
66 6% 18%  
67 5% 12%  
68 6% 6%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 9% 99.3% Last Result
62 8% 90%  
63 49% 82% Median
64 5% 33%  
65 7% 27%  
66 12% 21%  
67 8% 9%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.3% 100%  
60 3% 99.7%  
61 4% 96%  
62 49% 92% Median
63 7% 43%  
64 23% 36%  
65 4% 13%  
66 6% 9% Last Result
67 3% 3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 6% 99.8%  
58 10% 94% Last Result
59 10% 84%  
60 49% 75% Median
61 5% 26%  
62 16% 21%  
63 5% 5%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.9%  
52 6% 99.5%  
53 8% 94%  
54 7% 86%  
55 56% 79% Median
56 14% 23%  
57 2% 10% Last Result
58 3% 8%  
59 4% 4%  
60 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 2% 100%  
48 0.1% 98%  
49 1.3% 98%  
50 3% 97%  
51 10% 94%  
52 5% 83%  
53 10% 78%  
54 56% 68% Median
55 6% 12%  
56 0.6% 5%  
57 5% 5%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 1.2% 99.9%  
49 3% 98.7%  
50 3% 96%  
51 4% 92%  
52 64% 89% Median
53 5% 24%  
54 8% 19%  
55 6% 11%  
56 5% 5%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.4% 100%  
49 7% 99.6%  
50 7% 93%  
51 50% 86% Median
52 9% 36%  
53 4% 27%  
54 22% 23%  
55 1.2% 1.4%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 4% 99.9%  
49 7% 96%  
50 8% 89%  
51 17% 81%  
52 54% 64% Median
53 3% 10%  
54 8% 8% Last Result
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.4% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.6%  
48 1.2% 99.4%  
49 10% 98%  
50 55% 89% Median
51 18% 33%  
52 6% 15%  
53 7% 9%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 1.1% 1.2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 4% 99.9%  
44 1.0% 95%  
45 4% 94%  
46 14% 91%  
47 57% 77% Median
48 8% 20%  
49 5% 11%  
50 6% 6%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 2% 100%  
42 0.7% 98%  
43 7% 97%  
44 46% 90% Median
45 8% 45%  
46 10% 37%  
47 18% 27% Last Result
48 7% 9%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.3% 100%  
35 9% 99.7%  
36 41% 91% Median
37 9% 50%  
38 6% 41%  
39 15% 35%  
40 17% 20%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 5% 99.8%  
36 4% 95%  
37 56% 92% Median
38 23% 35%  
39 7% 12%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.8% 1.3%  
42 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 2% 100%  
31 3% 98%  
32 10% 95%  
33 12% 85%  
34 50% 73% Median
35 15% 23%  
36 2% 8%  
37 6% 6%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100% Last Result
29 7% 99.8%  
30 2% 93%  
31 47% 90% Median
32 5% 44%  
33 17% 38%  
34 8% 21%  
35 13% 13%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.2%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 9% 99.6%  
26 8% 90%  
27 48% 82% Median
28 17% 34%  
29 12% 18%  
30 6% 6%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations