Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 24–27 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 18.1% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.2–20.1% | 15.9–20.5% | 15.2–21.3% | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 10.6% | 9.5–12.0% | 9.2–12.3% | 8.9–12.7% | 8.4–13.3% | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 10.3% | 9.1–11.6% | 8.8–11.9% | 8.6–12.3% | 8.1–12.9% | 
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.5% | 8.2–11.8% | 7.7–12.5% | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 9.4% | 8.3–10.7% | 8.0–11.0% | 7.8–11.3% | 7.3–12.0% | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 9.2% | 8.2–10.5% | 7.9–10.8% | 7.6–11.1% | 7.1–11.8% | 
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.6–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% | 
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% | 
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% | 
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.0% | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% | 
| DENK | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 28 | 27–30 | 26–30 | 24–30 | 24–32 | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 13–18 | 13–20 | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 
| GroenLinks | 14 | 15 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 15 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 11–18 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 17 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 11 | 11–12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 9–16 | 
| 50Plus | 4 | 8 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–11 | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 5 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 
| DENK | 3 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 97% | |
| 26 | 4% | 95% | |
| 27 | 4% | 91% | |
| 28 | 70% | 87% | Median | 
| 29 | 4% | 17% | |
| 30 | 12% | 14% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | 
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 2% | 97% | |
| 15 | 10% | 95% | |
| 16 | 6% | 85% | |
| 17 | 71% | 79% | Median | 
| 18 | 7% | 9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 8% | 96% | |
| 15 | 70% | 88% | Median | 
| 16 | 11% | 18% | |
| 17 | 5% | 7% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result | 
| 21 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 10% | 98% | |
| 14 | 4% | 88% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 68% | 84% | Median | 
| 16 | 8% | 16% | |
| 17 | 5% | 8% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 5% | 93% | |
| 14 | 5% | 89% | |
| 15 | 78% | 83% | Median | 
| 16 | 2% | 5% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 5% | 94% | |
| 14 | 9% | 89% | |
| 15 | 11% | 80% | |
| 16 | 4% | 69% | |
| 17 | 66% | 66% | Median | 
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 11 | 78% | 96% | Median | 
| 12 | 8% | 18% | |
| 13 | 5% | 10% | |
| 14 | 2% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 8 | 79% | 96% | Median | 
| 9 | 6% | 17% | |
| 10 | 4% | 11% | |
| 11 | 4% | 7% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | 
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 5% | 96% | |
| 8 | 79% | 91% | Median | 
| 9 | 10% | 12% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 70% | 98% | Last Result, Median | 
| 6 | 10% | 28% | |
| 7 | 10% | 18% | |
| 8 | 8% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | 
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 14% | 99.1% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 76% | 85% | Median | 
| 7 | 7% | 10% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | 
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 75% | 99.4% | Median | 
| 3 | 18% | 25% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 7% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | 
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 77% | 99.9% | Median | 
| 2 | 20% | 23% | |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 90 | 77 | 78% | 74–77 | 72–77 | 71–80 | 69–80 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 79 | 87% | 75–79 | 74–79 | 73–79 | 71–83 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 85 | 77 | 81% | 72–77 | 71–78 | 70–78 | 68–80 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 74 | 77 | 74% | 72–77 | 71–77 | 70–77 | 68–80 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 61 | 72 | 0.2% | 69–72 | 67–72 | 66–74 | 64–75 | 
| GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 80 | 72 | 0.2% | 67–72 | 66–72 | 64–74 | 64–75 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus | 58 | 70 | 0% | 66–70 | 64–70 | 63–71 | 61–72 | 
| GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 66 | 64 | 0% | 59–64 | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–67 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 64 | 0% | 60–64 | 58–64 | 57–64 | 55–65 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 76 | 62 | 0% | 58–62 | 57–63 | 56–63 | 53–65 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 54 | 62 | 0% | 58–62 | 55–62 | 55–62 | 52–63 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 72 | 60 | 0% | 56–60 | 55–61 | 54–61 | 52–62 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 61 | 60 | 0% | 55–60 | 53–60 | 52–60 | 51–60 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 71 | 56 | 0% | 52–56 | 51–56 | 49–57 | 47–60 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 61 | 54 | 0% | 53–56 | 51–57 | 49–57 | 48–59 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 45 | 0% | 41–45 | 40–45 | 39–45 | 36–46 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 43 | 0% | 41–43 | 40–45 | 38–45 | 36–46 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 47 | 43 | 0% | 39–43 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 35–46 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 33 | 38 | 0% | 33–38 | 31–38 | 30–38 | 30–39 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 28 | 32 | 0% | 27–32 | 25–32 | 25–32 | 23–32 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 38 | 28 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 72 | 3% | 97% | |
| 73 | 2% | 94% | |
| 74 | 11% | 92% | |
| 75 | 3% | 81% | |
| 76 | 6% | 78% | Majority | 
| 77 | 67% | 72% | Median | 
| 78 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 80 | 3% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 74 | 3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 7% | 94% | |
| 76 | 6% | 87% | Majority | 
| 77 | 3% | 81% | Last Result | 
| 78 | 4% | 78% | |
| 79 | 73% | 74% | Median | 
| 80 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 70 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 71 | 5% | 96% | |
| 72 | 6% | 91% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 84% | |
| 75 | 2% | 83% | |
| 76 | 7% | 81% | Majority | 
| 77 | 68% | 74% | Median | 
| 78 | 4% | 6% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 71 | 5% | 97% | |
| 72 | 3% | 92% | |
| 73 | 7% | 89% | |
| 74 | 2% | 82% | Last Result | 
| 75 | 6% | 80% | |
| 76 | 6% | 74% | Majority | 
| 77 | 66% | 68% | Median | 
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 68 | 4% | 95% | |
| 69 | 2% | 90% | |
| 70 | 6% | 88% | |
| 71 | 9% | 82% | |
| 72 | 68% | 73% | Median | 
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 66 | 2% | 96% | |
| 67 | 7% | 94% | |
| 68 | 3% | 87% | |
| 69 | 2% | 84% | |
| 70 | 4% | 82% | |
| 71 | 8% | 78% | |
| 72 | 66% | 70% | Median | 
| 73 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 2% | 97% | |
| 65 | 2% | 95% | |
| 66 | 6% | 92% | |
| 67 | 2% | 86% | |
| 68 | 10% | 85% | |
| 69 | 4% | 74% | |
| 70 | 67% | 70% | Median | 
| 71 | 3% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 2% | 97% | |
| 59 | 7% | 94% | |
| 60 | 3% | 87% | |
| 61 | 3% | 84% | |
| 62 | 4% | 81% | |
| 63 | 5% | 76% | |
| 64 | 67% | 71% | Median | 
| 65 | 2% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 2% | Last Result | 
| 67 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 98% | Last Result | 
| 58 | 3% | 97% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 60 | 5% | 93% | |
| 61 | 6% | 88% | |
| 62 | 7% | 82% | |
| 63 | 7% | 75% | |
| 64 | 66% | 68% | Median | 
| 65 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 6% | 94% | |
| 59 | 3% | 88% | |
| 60 | 3% | 85% | |
| 61 | 7% | 82% | |
| 62 | 67% | 75% | Median | 
| 63 | 5% | 7% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 98.5% | Last Result | 
| 55 | 3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 57 | 4% | 94% | |
| 58 | 8% | 90% | |
| 59 | 7% | 82% | |
| 60 | 8% | 75% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 68% | |
| 62 | 66% | 67% | Median | 
| 63 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 3% | 98% | |
| 55 | 3% | 96% | |
| 56 | 5% | 92% | |
| 57 | 5% | 87% | |
| 58 | 5% | 82% | |
| 59 | 3% | 77% | |
| 60 | 66% | 73% | Median | 
| 61 | 7% | 8% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 54 | 4% | 95% | |
| 55 | 6% | 91% | |
| 56 | 4% | 85% | |
| 57 | 2% | 81% | |
| 58 | 5% | 80% | |
| 59 | 4% | 75% | |
| 60 | 71% | 71% | Median | 
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 51 | 2% | 96% | |
| 52 | 5% | 94% | |
| 53 | 4% | 89% | |
| 54 | 4% | 86% | |
| 55 | 3% | 82% | |
| 56 | 74% | 79% | Median | 
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 51 | 3% | 97% | |
| 52 | 2% | 93% | |
| 53 | 5% | 91% | |
| 54 | 69% | 86% | Median | 
| 55 | 1.4% | 17% | |
| 56 | 9% | 16% | |
| 57 | 5% | 7% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 39 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 40 | 5% | 95% | |
| 41 | 6% | 90% | |
| 42 | 3% | 84% | |
| 43 | 3% | 82% | |
| 44 | 6% | 78% | |
| 45 | 71% | 72% | Median | 
| 46 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 40 | 3% | 96% | |
| 41 | 4% | 94% | |
| 42 | 6% | 89% | Last Result | 
| 43 | 73% | 83% | Median | 
| 44 | 2% | 10% | |
| 45 | 8% | 8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 95% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 39 | 2% | 91% | |
| 40 | 6% | 89% | |
| 41 | 9% | 83% | |
| 42 | 3% | 74% | |
| 43 | 67% | 70% | Median | 
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 32 | 2% | 94% | |
| 33 | 4% | 92% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 4% | 88% | |
| 35 | 9% | 84% | |
| 36 | 5% | 75% | |
| 37 | 3% | 71% | |
| 38 | 67% | 68% | Median | 
| 39 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 26 | 4% | 95% | |
| 27 | 3% | 91% | |
| 28 | 5% | 88% | Last Result | 
| 29 | 6% | 84% | |
| 30 | 9% | 78% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 69% | |
| 32 | 67% | 68% | Median | 
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98% | |
| 24 | 6% | 96% | |
| 25 | 3% | 90% | |
| 26 | 10% | 87% | |
| 27 | 3% | 76% | |
| 28 | 70% | 74% | Median | 
| 29 | 3% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
 - Commissioner(s): —
 - Fieldwork period: 24–27 January 2020
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1052
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 1.77%