Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 2–9 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
50Plus 3.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 20 20–21 20–21 19–22 18–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 18–21 17–21 17–21 17–21
Partij van de Arbeid 9 17 17–19 16–20 16–20 16–21
Forum voor Democratie 2 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–15 12–15 12–15 12–17
Democraten 66 19 13 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
GroenLinks 14 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 8 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–11
50Plus 4 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–10
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.7%  
19 4% 98.9%  
20 56% 95% Median
21 34% 39%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 10% 100%  
18 9% 90%  
19 18% 81%  
20 17% 63% Last Result, Median
21 46% 46%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 8% 100%  
17 57% 92% Median
18 6% 35%  
19 19% 29%  
20 9% 9%  
21 0.7% 0.8%  
22 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 1.1% 100%  
15 12% 98.9%  
16 58% 87% Median
17 28% 29%  
18 0.6% 2%  
19 1.0% 1.0%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 6% 100%  
13 8% 94%  
14 64% 85% Median
15 20% 22%  
16 1.2% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.5%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.2% 100%  
12 12% 98.8%  
13 64% 87% Median
14 16% 23%  
15 7% 7%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.2% 100%  
11 17% 98.8%  
12 60% 82% Median
13 19% 22%  
14 2% 2% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 62% 99.6% Median
9 23% 38%  
10 15% 15%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.6% 100%  
8 18% 99.4%  
9 70% 81% Median
10 11% 11%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 22% 99.7% Last Result
6 75% 78% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 7% 99.7% Last Result
6 79% 93% Median
7 13% 13%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 17% 99.7% Last Result
4 78% 82% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 23% 100%  
3 75% 77% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 3% 72–75 71–75 71–76 70–77
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 71 1.4% 70–74 70–75 70–75 69–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 70 0.2% 70–74 70–75 69–75 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 71 0% 69–71 67–71 67–72 67–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 65 0% 64–68 63–68 63–68 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 63 0% 62–66 62–66 61–67 59–67
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 61–65 61–67 61–67 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 59 0% 59–62 58–62 57–63 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 54 0% 53–57 53–57 52–57 51–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 53 0% 52–55 52–55 52–56 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 55 0% 52–55 52–56 50–56 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 52 0% 51–55 51–56 49–56 49–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 50 0% 50–55 50–55 50–55 49–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 50 0% 50–53 49–53 48–53 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 47 0% 46–49 46–50 46–50 44–51
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 44–47 44–49 43–49 42–49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 37 0% 37–40 37–41 36–41 36–42
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 37 0% 36–40 36–40 36–40 36–41
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 34 0% 33–36 33–36 32–36 32–37
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 31 0% 31–34 31–35 30–35 30–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 27–28 26–29 25–29 24–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.9% 99.9%  
71 5% 99.1%  
72 9% 94%  
73 1.4% 85%  
74 26% 84% Median
75 54% 57%  
76 1.2% 3% Majority
77 2% 2% Last Result
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.5%  
70 47% 98.8% Median
71 19% 52%  
72 16% 33%  
73 6% 17%  
74 2% 11%  
75 8% 9%  
76 1.2% 1.4% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.4% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.6%  
69 3% 99.5%  
70 54% 96% Median
71 18% 42%  
72 2% 24%  
73 11% 22%  
74 3% 11%  
75 8% 8%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 5% 99.7%  
68 3% 95%  
69 11% 92%  
70 17% 81% Median
71 60% 64%  
72 2% 4%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.6% 99.9%  
63 6% 99.4%  
64 5% 94%  
65 67% 89% Median
66 3% 22%  
67 3% 19%  
68 15% 16%  
69 0.9% 0.9%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.6% 100%  
60 1.0% 99.4%  
61 2% 98% Last Result
62 13% 97%  
63 57% 84% Median
64 12% 27%  
65 2% 15%  
66 9% 12%  
67 4% 4%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.5% 99.8%  
61 10% 99.2%  
62 53% 89% Median
63 20% 36%  
64 5% 16%  
65 2% 11%  
66 1.1% 9% Last Result
67 8% 8%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.9% 99.8%  
57 2% 98.9%  
58 5% 97% Last Result
59 65% 93% Median
60 10% 27%  
61 4% 18%  
62 9% 13%  
63 4% 4%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.5% 100%  
51 0.7% 99.5%  
52 3% 98.8%  
53 8% 96%  
54 56% 88% Median
55 17% 32%  
56 2% 15%  
57 13% 13% Last Result
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 1.1% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 98.8%  
52 14% 98%  
53 54% 85% Median
54 10% 30%  
55 17% 20%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.5% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 2% 100%  
51 2% 97%  
52 9% 95%  
53 11% 87%  
54 21% 76% Median
55 46% 55%  
56 9% 9%  
57 0.7% 0.9%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 2% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 97%  
51 46% 96% Median
52 26% 51%  
53 8% 25%  
54 4% 16%  
55 5% 13%  
56 8% 8%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.4% 100%  
49 0.8% 99.5%  
50 56% 98.7% Median
51 15% 42%  
52 5% 27%  
53 6% 22%  
54 4% 16%  
55 12% 12%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.9% 100%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 5% 97%  
50 55% 93% Median
51 22% 38%  
52 1.1% 16%  
53 14% 15%  
54 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.8% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.2%  
46 9% 98%  
47 50% 89% Median
48 18% 39%  
49 11% 21%  
50 9% 10%  
51 0.7% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 1.0% 100%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 65% 97% Median
45 6% 33%  
46 14% 27%  
47 4% 13% Last Result
48 2% 9%  
49 7% 7%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 3% 99.7%  
37 54% 97% Median
38 11% 43%  
39 10% 32%  
40 12% 22%  
41 8% 9%  
42 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 12% 99.5%  
37 63% 88% Median
38 4% 25%  
39 7% 20%  
40 12% 14%  
41 1.0% 1.4%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 3% 99.5%  
33 9% 96%  
34 54% 87% Median
35 9% 33%  
36 22% 24%  
37 0.9% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100% Last Result
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 3% 99.7%  
31 67% 96% Median
32 9% 29%  
33 6% 20%  
34 6% 14%  
35 8% 8%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 2% 100%  
25 2% 98%  
26 7% 97%  
27 68% 90% Median
28 13% 22%  
29 9% 10%  
30 1.0% 1.2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations