Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 21–24 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.1% 15.6–18.7% 15.2–19.1% 14.9–19.5% 14.2–20.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.3–13.6% 10.0–14.0% 9.4–14.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.4% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.2% 7.9–11.6% 7.5–12.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.2% 7.2–11.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.1% 7.1–11.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–9.9% 6.8–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
50Plus 3.1% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 4.9% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.4–7.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.9–5.2% 2.6–5.7%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.9% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.1–3.3%
DENK 2.1% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 25 24–28 24–30 22–31 22–31
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 16–19 16–19 16–20 15–21
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 13–15 13–17 13–18 12–18
GroenLinks 14 16 14–16 14–16 13–16 11–17
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 13–15 12–16 12–17 11–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 13–14 11–15 11–16 11–16
Democraten 66 19 11 11–13 11–14 10–15 10–16
50Plus 4 11 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–12
Socialistische Partij 14 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–6 4–6 4–7 4–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 3% 99.9%  
23 1.3% 97%  
24 8% 96%  
25 69% 88% Median
26 4% 19%  
27 2% 14%  
28 3% 12%  
29 0.4% 9%  
30 5% 9%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.7%  
16 71% 98% Median
17 5% 28%  
18 5% 22%  
19 12% 17%  
20 4% 5% Last Result
21 0.8% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 10% 98%  
14 72% 88% Median
15 6% 16%  
16 4% 10%  
17 2% 6%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.2%  
13 3% 98.7%  
14 7% 96% Last Result
15 9% 89%  
16 80% 81% Median
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9%  
12 5% 99.4%  
13 6% 95%  
14 9% 89%  
15 73% 80% Median
16 3% 6%  
17 2% 4%  
18 1.0% 1.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.2% 100%  
11 5% 99.8%  
12 3% 94%  
13 7% 91%  
14 78% 84% Median
15 2% 6%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.2% 0.4%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 68% 97% Median
12 19% 30%  
13 3% 10%  
14 2% 7%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.7% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 12% 97%  
10 13% 85%  
11 71% 72% Median
12 1.0% 1.2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 5% 99.4%  
7 79% 95% Median
8 9% 16%  
9 4% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 8% 99.7% Last Result
6 12% 92%  
7 75% 80% Median
8 3% 5%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 5% 99.8%  
5 16% 95% Last Result
6 74% 79% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 13% 98%  
3 75% 85% Last Result, Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 22% 97%  
3 75% 75% Last Result, Median
4 0.2% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 73 21% 73–77 73–80 72–80 70–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 74 14% 72–76 70–77 69–80 67–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 70 8% 70–75 70–78 70–78 67–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 72 4% 71–75 70–75 67–76 67–77
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 0% 67–71 67–72 66–72 63–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 68 0% 66–70 65–70 64–72 62–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 65 0% 63–66 62–68 62–69 60–70
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 60–63 59–63 59–65 56–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 56 0% 56–60 55–64 54–64 52–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 58 0% 58–61 56–63 53–64 53–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 56–60 55–61 55–62 52–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 54 0% 53–56 53–59 52–60 50–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 54 0% 51–56 50–57 50–58 48–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 51 0% 51–55 49–56 48–57 48–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 50 0% 50–54 49–56 48–56 47–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 40 0% 38–43 37–45 36–45 36–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 38–42 36–44 36–44 35–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 40 0% 38–41 38–43 37–43 37–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 32–36 32–36 31–37 30–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 26–29 25–30 25–31 24–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 26–28 25–29 24–29 24–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.2%  
72 4% 98.8%  
73 68% 95% Median
74 2% 28%  
75 5% 25%  
76 9% 21% Majority
77 4% 12% Last Result
78 1.1% 8%  
79 0.3% 7%  
80 4% 7%  
81 0.2% 2%  
82 0.1% 2%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.5% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.5%  
68 0.2% 99.5%  
69 3% 99.2%  
70 3% 96%  
71 0.5% 93%  
72 4% 93%  
73 0.6% 89%  
74 68% 88% Median
75 7% 20%  
76 4% 14% Majority
77 5% 10%  
78 0.3% 5%  
79 0.9% 5%  
80 4% 4%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.8% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.1%  
69 0.8% 98.7%  
70 69% 98% Median
71 1.3% 29%  
72 13% 28%  
73 2% 15%  
74 1.2% 12% Last Result
75 3% 11%  
76 2% 8% Majority
77 0.3% 6%  
78 4% 6%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 3% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 97%  
69 0.6% 97%  
70 4% 96%  
71 4% 92%  
72 67% 89% Median
73 3% 21%  
74 6% 18%  
75 8% 12%  
76 3% 4% Majority
77 0.7% 1.2%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.7% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.2%  
65 0.2% 98.8%  
66 3% 98.7%  
67 8% 96%  
68 5% 88%  
69 3% 83%  
70 69% 80% Median
71 4% 11%  
72 5% 7%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 1.2% 99.5%  
64 3% 98%  
65 3% 95%  
66 5% 92%  
67 5% 87%  
68 68% 82% Median
69 2% 14%  
70 9% 13%  
71 0.8% 4%  
72 0.5% 3%  
73 0.1% 2%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100% Last Result
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 1.0% 99.5%  
61 0.5% 98.6%  
62 4% 98%  
63 8% 94%  
64 4% 86%  
65 67% 82% Median
66 6% 15%  
67 1.4% 9%  
68 5% 8%  
69 0.4% 3%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 0.1% 99.0%  
58 0.3% 98.9%  
59 4% 98.6%  
60 7% 95%  
61 6% 88%  
62 8% 82%  
63 69% 74% Median
64 0.6% 5%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.5%  
54 4% 99.0%  
55 1.5% 95%  
56 69% 94% Median
57 4% 25%  
58 2% 21%  
59 8% 19%  
60 2% 11%  
61 2% 9%  
62 0.3% 7%  
63 0.2% 6%  
64 6% 6%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 3% 100%  
54 0.1% 97%  
55 0.9% 97%  
56 3% 96%  
57 1.0% 93%  
58 67% 92% Median
59 5% 24%  
60 4% 20%  
61 10% 15%  
62 0.4% 5%  
63 0.3% 5%  
64 5% 5%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.6% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.3%  
54 1.0% 98.8%  
55 5% 98%  
56 3% 93%  
57 74% 90% Last Result, Median
58 2% 16%  
59 1.3% 14%  
60 5% 12%  
61 4% 7%  
62 1.1% 3%  
63 0.2% 2%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 0.8% 99.6%  
51 0.4% 98.8%  
52 3% 98%  
53 7% 96%  
54 70% 89% Last Result, Median
55 4% 19%  
56 6% 15%  
57 1.3% 9%  
58 0.5% 7%  
59 4% 7%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.5% 100%  
49 2% 99.5%  
50 4% 98%  
51 5% 94%  
52 0.7% 89%  
53 5% 89%  
54 67% 84% Median
55 3% 17%  
56 5% 14%  
57 5% 9%  
58 3% 4%  
59 1.0% 1.2%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 4% 99.9%  
49 3% 96%  
50 2% 94%  
51 67% 92% Median
52 4% 25%  
53 4% 21%  
54 2% 17%  
55 8% 15%  
56 3% 7%  
57 4% 4%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.9% 99.9%  
48 3% 99.0%  
49 3% 96%  
50 71% 93% Median
51 4% 23%  
52 2% 19%  
53 3% 17%  
54 7% 14%  
55 2% 7%  
56 4% 5%  
57 0.8% 1.2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 4% 99.8%  
37 5% 96%  
38 1.2% 91%  
39 2% 90%  
40 72% 88% Median
41 0.9% 16%  
42 3% 15%  
43 5% 13%  
44 2% 7%  
45 6% 6%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 1.3% 99.9%  
36 4% 98.6%  
37 4% 95%  
38 4% 91%  
39 69% 87% Median
40 3% 17%  
41 3% 14%  
42 6% 12% Last Result
43 1.2% 6%  
44 5% 5%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 4% 99.8%  
38 6% 96%  
39 5% 90%  
40 71% 84% Median
41 5% 14%  
42 2% 9%  
43 4% 7%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.8% 1.2%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 4% 99.5%  
32 7% 95%  
33 5% 88% Last Result
34 3% 83%  
35 2% 80%  
36 74% 78% Median
37 2% 4%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 5% 98%  
26 5% 93%  
27 7% 89%  
28 2% 81% Last Result
29 72% 79% Median
30 4% 7%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 4% 99.9%  
25 5% 96%  
26 73% 90% Median
27 7% 17%  
28 5% 11%  
29 4% 6%  
30 1.1% 2%  
31 0.6% 0.9%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations