Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 23 February–1 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 13.3% 12.5–14.1% 12.3–14.4% 12.1–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.6% 11.9–13.4% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.1–14.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
50Plus 3.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 20 18–21 18–22 18–22 18–22
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 18–20 18–20 17–20 17–21
Partij van de Arbeid 9 18 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–19
Forum voor Democratie 2 16 16–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
Democraten 66 19 15 14–15 14–15 13–15 13–16
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 12 12–15 12–15 12–15 12–15
GroenLinks 14 11 11–12 11–12 11–13 10–15
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–10 9–10 9–11 9–12
50Plus 4 10 10–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
DENK 3 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 27% 100%  
19 9% 73%  
20 51% 64% Median
21 7% 13%  
22 6% 6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 3% 100%  
18 26% 97%  
19 56% 70% Median
20 14% 15% Last Result
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 6% 99.9%  
16 11% 94%  
17 3% 83%  
18 78% 80% Median
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 5% 99.9%  
16 82% 95% Median
17 13% 13%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 3% 99.7%  
14 31% 96%  
15 63% 65% Median
16 1.0% 1.4%  
17 0.5% 0.5%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 53% 99.6% Median
13 10% 47%  
14 10% 37%  
15 26% 26%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.7% 100%  
11 78% 99.2% Median
12 18% 21%  
13 1.5% 3%  
14 1.0% 2% Last Result
15 0.8% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 18% 99.9%  
10 78% 82% Median
11 3% 4%  
12 0.5% 0.7%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 8% 99.5%  
10 80% 92% Median
11 9% 12%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100% Last Result
6 81% 95% Median
7 13% 13%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 15% 100% Last Result
6 9% 85%  
7 75% 75% Median
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 59% 100% Last Result, Median
4 41% 41%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 9% 100%  
3 88% 91% Last Result, Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 0.4% 70–73 70–75 70–75 70–75
Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 1.3% 72–74 71–74 71–74 70–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 85 71 0.1% 70–71 70–73 69–73 68–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 67 0% 67–69 67–71 67–71 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 64 0% 64–66 64–70 64–70 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 61–64 61–65 61–66 60–66
Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 62–64 62–64 61–64 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 58 0% 58–60 58–61 58–62 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 53 0% 53–54 52–58 52–58 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 51 0% 51–54 51–56 51–56 51–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 51 0% 51–53 51–55 51–55 50–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 53 0% 50–53 50–53 50–53 48–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 50 0% 49–51 48–51 48–53 48–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 48 0% 48–50 48–52 48–52 47–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 47 0% 47–48 47–51 46–51 46–51
Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 47 45 0% 44–47 43–47 43–47 42–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 36–38 35–39 35–39 35–40
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 36–39 36–39 34–39 34–39
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 32 0% 32–34 32–36 32–36 30–36
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 30 0% 29–33 29–33 28–33 28–33
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 27 0% 27–29 27–29 26–29 25–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 50% 99.9% Median
71 27% 50%  
72 12% 23%  
73 5% 12%  
74 0.7% 7%  
75 6% 6%  
76 0.3% 0.4% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.6%  
71 3% 98%  
72 64% 94% Median
73 2% 30%  
74 26% 28%  
75 0.1% 1.4%  
76 1.3% 1.3% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 2% 99.8%  
69 1.5% 98%  
70 12% 96%  
71 74% 84% Median
72 3% 10%  
73 6% 6%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.9% 99.9%  
67 75% 99.1% Median
68 4% 24%  
69 12% 20%  
70 2% 8%  
71 6% 6%  
72 0.5% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.9% 99.9%  
63 1.0% 99.1%  
64 74% 98% Median
65 6% 24%  
66 11% 18%  
67 1.5% 7%  
68 0.1% 6%  
69 0.1% 6%  
70 6% 6%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 1.2% 99.9%  
61 48% 98.7% Last Result, Median
62 3% 50%  
63 35% 47%  
64 3% 12%  
65 6% 10%  
66 3% 3%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 1.4% 99.4%  
61 2% 98%  
62 54% 96% Median
63 15% 42%  
64 26% 28%  
65 1.0% 1.4%  
66 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 1.0% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.0%  
58 51% 98.6% Last Result, Median
59 26% 47%  
60 11% 21%  
61 7% 10%  
62 3% 3%  
63 0.1% 0.5%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 1.5% 99.9%  
52 4% 98%  
53 75% 95% Median
54 13% 20%  
55 1.0% 7%  
56 0.5% 6%  
57 0.1% 6%  
58 5% 5%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 50% 99.8% Median
52 11% 50%  
53 29% 39%  
54 0.6% 10%  
55 1.1% 9%  
56 8% 8%  
57 0% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 1.1% 99.9%  
51 75% 98.8% Median
52 12% 24%  
53 4% 11%  
54 1.4% 8%  
55 6% 6%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 1.4% 100%  
49 0.5% 98.6%  
50 35% 98%  
51 0.4% 63%  
52 9% 62%  
53 52% 53% Median
54 0.8% 1.1%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 8% 99.9%  
49 5% 92%  
50 48% 86% Median
51 33% 38%  
52 0.9% 5%  
53 4% 4%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.9%  
48 51% 98% Median
49 35% 47%  
50 2% 12%  
51 1.0% 10%  
52 9% 9%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 4% 99.7%  
47 83% 95% Median
48 3% 12%  
49 4% 10%  
50 0.3% 6%  
51 6% 6%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.9%  
43 3% 98%  
44 15% 95%  
45 50% 80% Median
46 3% 30%  
47 27% 27% Last Result
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 10% 99.9%  
36 27% 90%  
37 8% 63%  
38 49% 55% Median
39 5% 5%  
40 0.9% 0.9%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100% Last Result
34 3% 99.9%  
35 2% 97%  
36 65% 96% Median
37 3% 30%  
38 0.6% 27%  
39 26% 26%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.9% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.1%  
32 58% 99.0% Median
33 29% 41%  
34 3% 12%  
35 4% 9%  
36 6% 6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 3% 99.9% Last Result
29 14% 97%  
30 51% 83% Median
31 2% 32%  
32 4% 30%  
33 26% 26%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.5% 99.9%  
26 2% 98%  
27 52% 96% Median
28 12% 44%  
29 32% 33%  
30 0.2% 0.6%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations