Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 1–6 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
50Plus 3.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 19 18–21 18–21 18–21 18–22
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 18–20 17–20 17–20 17–20
Partij van de Arbeid 9 16 16–18 16–18 16–18 16–19
Forum voor Democratie 2 17 16–17 16–17 15–17 15–18
Democraten 66 19 15 14–15 13–15 13–15 13–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 13–15 12–15 12–15 11–16
GroenLinks 14 12 11–12 11–12 11–13 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 9 9–10 9–10 9–11 9–12
50Plus 4 11 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
DENK 3 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 35% 100%  
19 51% 65% Median
20 0.4% 14%  
21 13% 14%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 8% 100%  
18 36% 92%  
19 2% 56%  
20 53% 54% Last Result, Median
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 50% 99.9% Median
17 2% 50%  
18 46% 47%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 4% 99.9%  
16 38% 96%  
17 56% 57% Median
18 1.1% 1.3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 5% 99.8%  
14 44% 94%  
15 50% 50% Median
16 0.1% 0.5%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.5% 100%  
12 4% 98%  
13 50% 95% Median
14 8% 44%  
15 35% 37%  
16 1.5% 1.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.2% 100%  
11 43% 98.8%  
12 52% 56% Median
13 3% 4%  
14 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 53% 99.6% Median
10 43% 46%  
11 3% 4%  
12 1.1% 1.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 47% 98%  
11 49% 51% Median
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 9% 100% Last Result
6 42% 91% Median
7 49% 49%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 58% 100% Last Result, Median
6 6% 42%  
7 36% 36%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 51% 100% Last Result, Median
4 49% 49%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 89% 97% Last Result, Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 0.5% 72–74 71–74 71–74 69–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 72 0.2% 71–72 71–73 71–73 70–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 85 70 0.3% 70–71 70–72 70–72 68–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 69 0% 67–69 67–69 67–69 66–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 66 0% 64–66 64–66 64–66 63–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 63 0% 63–65 62–66 62–66 60–67
Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 62–64 62–64 62–64 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 60 0% 59–61 58–62 58–62 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 52 0% 52–55 52–56 52–56 51–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 54 0% 53–54 52–54 52–54 51–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 52 0% 51–52 51–53 51–53 50–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 50 0% 50–52 50–53 50–53 48–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 49 0% 48–51 48–53 48–53 48–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 49 0% 49–51 48–52 48–52 47–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 47 0% 47 47–49 46–49 46–50
Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 47 44 0% 44–47 44–47 43–47 42–47
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 36–39 36–39 36–39 34–39
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 35 0% 35–39 35–39 35–39 35–40
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 32 0% 32–34 32–35 32–35 32–35
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 30 0% 29–33 29–33 29–33 28–33
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 28 0% 28–29 26–29 25–29 25–29

Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.5%  
71 4% 98.9% Median
72 56% 95%  
73 2% 39%  
74 37% 37%  
75 0.1% 0.6%  
76 0.5% 0.5% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.7% 99.9%  
71 37% 99.3%  
72 53% 63% Median
73 8% 10%  
74 1.4% 2%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 1.3% 99.5% Median
70 53% 98%  
71 36% 45%  
72 8% 9%  
73 0.1% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.4%  
76 0.3% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 36% 99.5%  
68 5% 64%  
69 57% 59% Median
70 2% 2%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0% 99.8%  
63 1.3% 99.8%  
64 36% 98.5%  
65 11% 62% Median
66 51% 52%  
67 0.5% 1.0%  
68 0% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 2% 100%  
61 0.1% 98% Last Result
62 3% 98%  
63 84% 95% Median
64 1.0% 11%  
65 2% 10%  
66 7% 8%  
67 0.8% 0.8%  
68 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.7%  
61 1.4% 99.1%  
62 12% 98% Median
63 50% 86%  
64 35% 36%  
65 0.7% 0.8%  
66 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 1.2% 99.5%  
58 3% 98% Last Result
59 35% 95%  
60 49% 60% Median
61 2% 10%  
62 7% 8%  
63 0.2% 1.0%  
64 0.8% 0.8%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.8%  
52 52% 98% Median
53 36% 46%  
54 0.3% 11%  
55 3% 10%  
56 7% 7%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 5% 99.5%  
53 36% 94% Median
54 57% 58%  
55 0.4% 0.9%  
56 0.1% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.3%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 37% 99.3%  
52 57% 63% Median
53 4% 6%  
54 1.5% 2%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 1.5% 100%  
49 0.1% 98%  
50 84% 98% Median
51 0.3% 14%  
52 4% 14%  
53 8% 10%  
54 0.3% 1.4%  
55 0.8% 1.1%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 48% 99.7% Median
49 2% 51%  
50 0.3% 49%  
51 40% 49%  
52 0.5% 9%  
53 8% 8%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 5% 99.4%  
49 84% 95% Median
50 0.4% 11%  
51 2% 10%  
52 8% 8%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 4% 99.5%  
47 85% 95% Median
48 2% 10%  
49 7% 8%  
50 0.2% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.4%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.9%  
43 4% 99.1%  
44 49% 96% Median
45 3% 46%  
46 7% 43%  
47 35% 36% Last Result
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100% Last Result
34 1.3% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 98.6% Median
36 53% 98%  
37 9% 45%  
38 1.5% 37%  
39 35% 35%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 50% 99.9% Median
36 36% 50%  
37 0.6% 14%  
38 0.8% 13%  
39 11% 13%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.7%  
32 50% 99.6% Median
33 39% 49%  
34 1.1% 10%  
35 9% 9%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.9% Last Result
29 49% 98.8% Median
30 5% 50%  
31 0.1% 45%  
32 10% 45%  
33 35% 35%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 4% 99.9%  
26 2% 96%  
27 1.3% 94%  
28 56% 93% Median
29 37% 37%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations