Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 5–10 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.7–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.1% 10.3–12.0% 10.0–12.3% 9.8–12.5% 9.5–12.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 10.0–12.2% 9.8–12.4% 9.4–12.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.8% 9.0–10.7% 8.8–10.9% 8.6–11.1% 8.3–11.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.6% 8.8–10.5% 8.6–10.7% 8.4–10.9% 8.1–11.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.5% 8.7–10.3% 8.5–10.6% 8.3–10.8% 8.0–11.2%
50Plus 3.1% 6.6% 6.0–7.3% 5.8–7.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.3–8.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–8.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.1% 3.6–4.7% 3.4–4.9% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.6% 2.2–3.1% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.6%
DENK 2.1% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 28 28 28 26–29
GroenLinks 14 15 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 16–19 15–19 15–19 15–19
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 14–15 14–16 14–16 14–17
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14 14 14–15 13–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 14–15 14–16 13–16 12–16
50Plus 4 10 10–11 9–11 9–11 8–11
Democraten 66 19 10 10 10–11 9–11 8–11
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–9 7–9 7–10 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 6 6 6–8 6–8 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 6 6 5–6 5–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3 3–4 3–5
DENK 3 1 1 1 1 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.6% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.2%  
28 97% 98.6% Median
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100% Last Result
15 79% 99.7% Median
16 2% 20%  
17 17% 19%  
18 1.1% 2%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 9% 99.9%  
16 8% 91%  
17 2% 83%  
18 1.2% 81%  
19 80% 80% Median
20 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 82% 99.6% Median
15 8% 17%  
16 9% 10%  
17 0.8% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.8%  
14 95% 98.9% Median
15 2% 4%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.9% 100%  
13 3% 99.1%  
14 7% 96%  
15 80% 88% Median
16 8% 8%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.3% 100%  
9 7% 98.7%  
10 81% 92% Median
11 10% 10%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.1%  
10 90% 97% Median
11 7% 7%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 8% 100%  
8 9% 92%  
9 81% 84% Median
10 2% 3%  
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 2% 99.7% Last Result
6 90% 98% Median
7 2% 8%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 2% 99.6% Last Result
6 97% 97% Median
7 0.4% 0.6%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 96% 100% Last Result, Median
4 2% 4%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 97% 98.7% Median
2 1.5% 1.5%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 99.4% 76–78 76–78 76–79 75–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 73 10% 73–76 73–78 73–78 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 75 2% 73–75 73–75 73–75 72–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 73 0.3% 73–74 72–75 72–75 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 69 0% 69–72 69–72 69–72 68–74
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 69 0% 69–70 69–72 69–72 67–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 66 0% 66–68 66–69 66–69 65–69
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 60–63 60–64 60–64 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 59–61 59–61 59–62 59–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 58 0% 58 58–61 58–61 56–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 61 0% 58–61 57–61 57–61 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 56 0% 56–58 56–58 56–58 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 56–57 56–58 56–58 54–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 53 0% 53 52–54 51–54 49–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 52 0% 52–53 52–53 52–53 50–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 43 0% 42–43 42–44 41–44 40–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 42 42 42–43 41–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 39 0% 39 39–40 37–40 35–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 35–36 35–36 34–36 32–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 28–29 28–30 28–30 26–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 24 0% 24 24–25 24–25 22–26

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 15% 99.4% Majority
77 0.4% 84% Last Result
78 81% 84% Median
79 0.9% 3%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.1% 0.6%  
82 0.4% 0.4%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.9% 99.8%  
73 80% 98.9% Median
74 0.9% 19%  
75 8% 18%  
76 2% 10% Majority
77 1.3% 8%  
78 6% 7%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.7%  
73 16% 99.1%  
74 0.7% 83% Last Result
75 81% 83% Median
76 1.0% 2% Majority
77 0.3% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.7% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.1%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 3% 98%  
73 80% 95% Median
74 8% 15%  
75 7% 7%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 86% 99.5% Median
70 2% 14%  
71 2% 12%  
72 9% 11%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 1.0% 1.2%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 1.1% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 98.8%  
69 81% 98% Median
70 8% 18%  
71 1.4% 9%  
72 7% 8%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.6%  
66 87% 99.2% Median
67 2% 13%  
68 1.1% 11%  
69 10% 10%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.5%  
59 1.1% 99.4%  
60 80% 98% Median
61 2% 18%  
62 0.8% 16%  
63 8% 15%  
64 6% 7%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 79% 99.5% Median
60 8% 20%  
61 9% 12%  
62 1.0% 3%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 0.9% 99.5%  
57 0.7% 98.6%  
58 88% 98% Median
59 2% 10%  
60 1.2% 8%  
61 6% 7%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 8% 99.8%  
58 7% 92%  
59 3% 85%  
60 2% 82%  
61 79% 80% Median
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.4% 0.4%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 80% 99.4% Median
57 9% 20%  
58 10% 11%  
59 0.9% 1.4%  
60 0.3% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.8%  
55 0.8% 99.1%  
56 9% 98%  
57 80% 89% Median
58 8% 9%  
59 0.7% 0.9%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 1.3% 99.8%  
50 0.7% 98%  
51 2% 98%  
52 1.4% 96%  
53 86% 94% Median
54 8% 8%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.7%  
51 1.0% 98.8%  
52 87% 98% Median
53 9% 10%  
54 0.3% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 1.0% 99.8%  
41 3% 98.7%  
42 7% 96% Last Result
43 80% 88% Median
44 8% 9%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 1.1% 99.6%  
42 94% 98.5% Median
43 2% 4%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.5%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.6%  
38 2% 97%  
39 86% 95% Median
40 8% 9%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 98% Last Result
34 2% 98%  
35 81% 96% Median
36 14% 15%  
37 0.6% 1.0%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.3%  
28 9% 98% Last Result
29 80% 89% Median
30 9% 9%  
31 0.2% 0.6%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.8%  
23 1.1% 99.2%  
24 89% 98% Median
25 9% 9%  
26 0.4% 0.8%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations