Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 26–30 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.2% 22.1–24.4% 21.8–24.7% 21.6–25.0% 21.0–25.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 9.9–11.6% 9.7–11.8% 9.5–12.0% 9.2–12.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.9% 9.1–10.7% 8.9–11.0% 8.7–11.2% 8.4–11.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.5% 8.8–10.3% 8.6–10.6% 8.4–10.8% 8.0–11.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.0% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.7% 7.1–8.5% 6.9–8.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.1% 5.5–6.8% 5.3–7.0% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 5.7% 5.1–6.4% 5.0–6.6% 4.8–6.8% 4.6–7.1%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 5.0% 4.5–5.6% 4.3–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3%
50Plus 3.1% 5.0% 4.5–5.6% 4.3–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.8% 2.4–3.3% 2.3–3.5% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 37 34–39 33–39 33–39 32–39
GroenLinks 14 16 15–19 14–19 14–19 13–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 14 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–16
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 12–15 12–15 12–15 12–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 12 10–12 10–13 10–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
Democraten 66 19 9 7–9 7–9 7–10 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–9
50Plus 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 1.0% 99.9%  
33 9% 99.0% Last Result
34 4% 90%  
35 11% 86%  
36 8% 75%  
37 42% 67% Median
38 4% 25%  
39 21% 22%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.2% 100%  
14 4% 98.8% Last Result
15 15% 95%  
16 45% 80% Median
17 3% 35%  
18 21% 32%  
19 11% 11%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 23% 99.5%  
14 34% 76% Median
15 29% 42%  
16 6% 13%  
17 7% 7%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.1% 100%  
13 24% 98.8%  
14 38% 75% Median
15 31% 37%  
16 6% 6%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 23% 99.8%  
13 37% 77% Median
14 29% 40%  
15 10% 11%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 21% 99.7%  
11 20% 79%  
12 49% 59% Median
13 6% 10%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 13% 98%  
9 27% 85%  
10 47% 57% Median
11 10% 10%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 12% 99.7%  
8 17% 87%  
9 66% 70% Median
10 3% 4%  
11 1.5% 1.5%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 12% 99.9%  
7 29% 88%  
8 43% 59% Median
9 16% 16%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 28% 100%  
7 37% 72% Median
8 33% 35%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 10% 99.7% Last Result
6 69% 90% Median
7 17% 21%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 21% 100% Last Result
4 68% 79% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 52% 52% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 80–84 79–84 78–84 78–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 81 99.6% 77–83 77–83 77–83 76–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 80 99.9% 78–81 78–82 78–82 77–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 76 69% 74–78 73–78 73–79 73–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 73 0.9% 71–74 70–74 70–75 68–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 69 0% 67–70 65–71 65–72 65–72
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 70 0% 69–71 68–71 67–71 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 67 0% 63–68 63–68 62–68 62–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 63–67 63–67 63–67 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 64 0% 62–66 61–67 61–67 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 64 0% 62–66 60–66 60–67 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 62 0% 60–63 58–63 58–64 58–65
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 59–62 58–63 58–63 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 59 0% 57–63 56–63 56–63 54–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 59 0% 56–60 55–60 55–61 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 50 0% 49–54 47–54 47–54 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 47–51 46–52 46–52 46–53
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 36 0% 35–38 35–39 34–39 33–40
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 33–37 33–38 33–38 32–40
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 27 0% 26–29 26–30 26–30 26–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 22 0% 21–23 21–24 20–24 19–25

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 2% 99.8%  
79 4% 97%  
80 5% 94%  
81 6% 89%  
82 19% 83%  
83 21% 63% Median
84 40% 42%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.6% Majority
77 12% 99.1%  
78 3% 87%  
79 22% 84%  
80 10% 62%  
81 26% 52% Median
82 3% 26%  
83 21% 23%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9% Majority
77 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
78 26% 98.8%  
79 12% 73%  
80 31% 60% Median
81 22% 30%  
82 5% 8%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 8% 99.6%  
74 21% 92% Last Result
75 2% 71%  
76 37% 69% Median, Majority
77 18% 32%  
78 10% 14%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.1% 2%  
81 1.2% 1.4%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.4%  
70 9% 99.3%  
71 12% 90%  
72 21% 78%  
73 42% 57% Median
74 11% 15%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.4% 0.9% Majority
77 0.5% 0.5%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 7% 99.5%  
66 0.6% 93%  
67 9% 92%  
68 27% 83%  
69 39% 56% Median
70 9% 17%  
71 6% 9%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.4% 0.4%  
74 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.3% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 1.2% 99.6%  
67 2% 98%  
68 6% 96%  
69 22% 90%  
70 51% 68% Median
71 15% 17%  
72 0.4% 2%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.3% 0.3%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.4% 100%  
62 2% 99.6%  
63 12% 97%  
64 5% 86%  
65 6% 81%  
66 25% 75%  
67 24% 50% Median
68 24% 26%  
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.1% 1.1%  
71 1.0% 1.0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.8% 99.7%  
63 9% 98.9%  
64 24% 90%  
65 15% 66%  
66 24% 51% Median
67 24% 26%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.7% 0.8%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.4% 100%  
61 8% 99.6%  
62 2% 92%  
63 6% 90%  
64 51% 83% Median
65 5% 32%  
66 19% 27%  
67 6% 8%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0% 0.3%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 7% 99.8%  
61 1.1% 93% Last Result
62 3% 92%  
63 26% 89%  
64 18% 63% Median
65 18% 45%  
66 24% 27%  
67 3% 3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 7% 99.6%  
59 1.4% 92%  
60 27% 91%  
61 6% 64%  
62 25% 58% Median
63 29% 33%  
64 3% 4%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 1.4% 99.7%  
58 5% 98%  
59 7% 93%  
60 62% 86% Median
61 11% 23%  
62 3% 13%  
63 9% 9%  
64 0.2% 0.8%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.6% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.3%  
56 8% 98.9%  
57 8% 91%  
58 20% 83%  
59 24% 63%  
60 12% 39% Median
61 5% 27% Last Result
62 1.4% 22%  
63 20% 21%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.4% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.6%  
55 9% 99.4%  
56 1.3% 91%  
57 13% 89%  
58 14% 77%  
59 30% 63% Median
60 27% 32%  
61 4% 5%  
62 1.1% 1.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 8% 99.8%  
48 2% 92%  
49 11% 90%  
50 29% 79%  
51 21% 50% Median
52 6% 29%  
53 2% 23%  
54 21% 21%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 7% 99.8%  
47 3% 93%  
48 3% 90%  
49 12% 86%  
50 31% 74% Median
51 38% 43%  
52 4% 5% Last Result
53 1.1% 1.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 1.4% 100%  
34 1.1% 98.6%  
35 30% 97%  
36 42% 68% Median
37 15% 26%  
38 6% 12%  
39 4% 6%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 1.2% 100%  
33 20% 98.8% Last Result
34 12% 79%  
35 36% 67% Median
36 5% 30%  
37 19% 25%  
38 5% 7%  
39 0.4% 2%  
40 1.0% 1.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 21% 99.6%  
27 38% 78% Median
28 24% 40% Last Result
29 7% 16%  
30 8% 10%  
31 1.5% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.4%  
33 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 1.0% 98%  
21 31% 97%  
22 45% 66% Median
23 13% 21%  
24 7% 8%  
25 1.1% 1.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations