Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 27–30 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.1% 7.8–11.4% 7.3–12.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.0% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–12.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.7–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
50Plus 3.1% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.2–6.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
DENK 2.1% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 35 33–36 31–37 31–37 30–40
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 14–16 13–18 13–19 12–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 16 13–16 13–16 12–16 11–17
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 12–16 12–16 12–16 11–17
GroenLinks 14 16 13–16 12–16 11–16 11–17
Democraten 66 19 12 12–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 10–11 9–12 9–12 8–13
50Plus 4 8 8–10 7–10 7–11 6–12
Socialistische Partij 14 8 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
ChristenUnie 5 5 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 2–3 1–4 1–4 1–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 1.5% 99.9%  
31 5% 98%  
32 3% 94%  
33 4% 91% Last Result
34 6% 87%  
35 64% 81% Median
36 11% 17%  
37 4% 5%  
38 0.5% 2%  
39 0.3% 1.2%  
40 0.9% 0.9%  
41 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.8%  
13 6% 99.3%  
14 10% 93%  
15 10% 84%  
16 64% 74% Median
17 4% 10%  
18 3% 6%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.4% 99.9%  
12 3% 98.6%  
13 15% 96%  
14 17% 81%  
15 5% 65%  
16 59% 59% Median
17 0.5% 0.7%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.8%  
12 11% 99.4%  
13 4% 89%  
14 67% 85% Median
15 4% 18%  
16 12% 14%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 4% 99.7%  
12 4% 96%  
13 5% 92%  
14 9% 87% Last Result
15 20% 78%  
16 57% 59% Median
17 0.7% 1.0%  
18 0.2% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 4% 99.8%  
11 4% 96%  
12 65% 92% Median
13 7% 26%  
14 12% 19%  
15 6% 7%  
16 0.7% 1.1%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.5% 100%  
8 2% 99.5%  
9 6% 98%  
10 68% 92% Median
11 14% 24%  
12 7% 9%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 1.1% 100%  
7 6% 98.9%  
8 64% 93% Median
9 17% 29%  
10 7% 12%  
11 3% 5%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 6% 99.8%  
6 25% 94%  
7 7% 69%  
8 61% 62% Median
9 0.4% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 57% 98% Last Result, Median
6 24% 41%  
7 14% 17%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 61% 98% Last Result, Median
6 12% 37%  
7 18% 25%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 77% 99.8% Median
3 14% 22% Last Result
4 8% 9%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100%  
2 62% 93% Median
3 23% 30% Last Result
4 7% 7%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 82 99.5% 80–84 78–85 77–85 76–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 82 99.7% 80–84 78–85 77–85 76–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 93% 76–80 74–81 73–81 71–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 14% 73–77 71–78 70–78 68–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 69 0.7% 68–73 68–75 67–75 65–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 67 0.1% 66–71 65–71 64–72 62–73
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 71 0% 66–71 65–71 64–72 62–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 66 0% 66–70 64–71 64–71 62–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 65 0% 62–66 60–68 60–69 59–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 65 0% 61–65 60–65 59–66 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 61 0% 60–64 59–65 58–66 56–67
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 59–64 58–64 57–66 55–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 61 0% 60–63 59–64 58–64 55–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 63 0% 59–63 59–64 57–64 56–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 59 0% 58–61 57–62 55–63 53–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 49 0% 47–51 46–51 46–51 43–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 51 0% 47–51 46–51 45–51 44–53
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 42 0% 39–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 31–36 31–37 31–38 30–40
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 30 0% 25–30 25–31 25–32 25–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 26–29 25–29 24–30 23–31

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.5% Majority
77 2% 99.1%  
78 4% 97%  
79 1.0% 93%  
80 7% 91%  
81 3% 85%  
82 57% 82% Median
83 12% 25%  
84 3% 13%  
85 9% 10%  
86 1.1% 1.4%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.7% Majority
77 2% 99.1%  
78 3% 97%  
79 3% 94%  
80 1.1% 90%  
81 11% 89%  
82 63% 79% Median
83 6% 16%  
84 3% 10%  
85 5% 7% Last Result
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.6% 0.7%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 1.0% 99.6%  
72 0.8% 98.7%  
73 0.6% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 1.1% 94%  
76 18% 93% Majority
77 57% 75% Last Result, Median
78 3% 18%  
79 2% 15%  
80 6% 13%  
81 6% 6%  
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0% 0.5%  
84 0.4% 0.4%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.4% 100%  
68 0.6% 99.6%  
69 1.2% 99.1%  
70 2% 98%  
71 1.2% 96%  
72 1.3% 95%  
73 6% 93%  
74 18% 87% Last Result
75 55% 69% Median
76 1.0% 14% Majority
77 5% 14%  
78 6% 9%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.6%  
81 0.4% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.8%  
66 0.9% 99.4%  
67 2% 98%  
68 12% 97%  
69 55% 85% Median
70 4% 29%  
71 9% 25%  
72 5% 17%  
73 2% 11%  
74 3% 9%  
75 6% 7%  
76 0.4% 0.7% Majority
77 0% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.7% 99.3%  
64 1.5% 98.7%  
65 3% 97%  
66 12% 94%  
67 57% 82% Median
68 3% 25%  
69 8% 22%  
70 3% 14%  
71 7% 11%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.5% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.5% 99.8%  
63 1.1% 99.3%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 6% 97%  
66 10% 91%  
67 3% 81%  
68 6% 78%  
69 11% 72%  
70 2% 61%  
71 54% 59% Median
72 3% 5%  
73 0.3% 2%  
74 0.8% 1.2%  
75 0.4% 0.4%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.5% 99.5%  
63 1.1% 99.0%  
64 5% 98%  
65 1.4% 93%  
66 56% 92% Median
67 6% 36%  
68 12% 30%  
69 7% 18%  
70 5% 11%  
71 5% 6%  
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.7%  
60 3% 98%  
61 1.3% 94%  
62 5% 93%  
63 6% 89%  
64 14% 83%  
65 56% 69% Median
66 6% 12%  
67 0.6% 6%  
68 3% 6%  
69 3% 3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.6%  
59 3% 99.2%  
60 5% 97%  
61 9% 92% Last Result
62 5% 83%  
63 10% 77%  
64 2% 67%  
65 61% 65% Median
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.3% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0% 99.6%  
56 0.1% 99.6%  
57 2% 99.5% Last Result
58 1.0% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 10% 95%  
61 60% 84% Median
62 8% 24%  
63 4% 16%  
64 2% 12%  
65 6% 10%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0% 0.5%  
69 0.4% 0.4%  
70 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.4%  
57 3% 99.2%  
58 1.4% 96%  
59 6% 95%  
60 10% 88%  
61 5% 78%  
62 5% 73%  
63 57% 68% Median
64 6% 11%  
65 1.1% 5%  
66 3% 4% Last Result
67 0.1% 1.0%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.5% 0.5%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.3% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.6%  
56 0.3% 98.8%  
57 0.5% 98.5%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 5% 94%  
61 58% 89% Median
62 16% 31%  
63 7% 14%  
64 6% 7%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 3% 99.4%  
58 1.1% 96%  
59 8% 95%  
60 5% 87%  
61 6% 82% Last Result
62 3% 76%  
63 65% 73% Median
64 6% 8%  
65 1.3% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.4%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.7%  
52 0% 99.6%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
55 2% 99.0%  
56 1.2% 97%  
57 4% 96%  
58 12% 92%  
59 60% 80% Median
60 7% 20%  
61 6% 13%  
62 3% 7%  
63 4% 5%  
64 0.4% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.6%  
66 0.4% 0.4%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.4% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.5%  
44 0.9% 99.4%  
45 0.6% 98%  
46 4% 98%  
47 6% 94%  
48 11% 88%  
49 60% 77% Median
50 7% 17%  
51 9% 10%  
52 0.8% 2% Last Result
53 0.2% 0.8%  
54 0.5% 0.5%  
55 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 1.4% 99.7%  
45 2% 98%  
46 6% 97%  
47 5% 91%  
48 3% 86%  
49 22% 83%  
50 2% 61%  
51 57% 58% Median
52 0.2% 2%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.4%  
38 4% 97%  
39 9% 93%  
40 6% 84%  
41 6% 78%  
42 57% 71% Median
43 9% 15%  
44 1.1% 6%  
45 4% 5%  
46 1.0% 1.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
48 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.7%  
31 12% 99.0%  
32 2% 87%  
33 1.2% 85% Last Result
34 3% 84%  
35 65% 81% Median
36 8% 16%  
37 5% 8%  
38 0.8% 3%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 12% 99.5%  
26 1.2% 87%  
27 3% 86%  
28 10% 83% Last Result
29 7% 73%  
30 59% 66% Median
31 3% 7%  
32 2% 3%  
33 1.5% 2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.8%  
23 1.0% 99.7%  
24 4% 98.7%  
25 1.3% 95%  
26 68% 94% Median
27 7% 25%  
28 7% 19%  
29 7% 12%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations