Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 1–2 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.6% 19.7–21.6% 19.4–21.9% 19.2–22.1% 18.7–22.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 29–32 29–33 29–33 29–35
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 17–21 17–21 17–21 15–21
Partij van de Arbeid 9 20 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–19
GroenLinks 14 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Democraten 66 19 11 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–11
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 6–9
50Plus 4 6 6 6–7 5–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 48% 99.6%  
30 5% 51% Median
31 24% 46%  
32 16% 23%  
33 5% 6% Last Result
34 0.3% 1.0%  
35 0.7% 0.7%  
36 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.7% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.3%  
17 15% 98%  
18 4% 84%  
19 65% 80% Median
20 5% 16% Last Result
21 11% 11%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.9%  
17 21% 99.1%  
18 19% 78%  
19 7% 59%  
20 51% 52% Median
21 1.0% 2%  
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 60% 97% Median
16 11% 37%  
17 15% 26%  
18 6% 11%  
19 5% 5% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 9% 100%  
11 12% 91%  
12 61% 78% Median
13 15% 17%  
14 2% 2% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 22% 99.1%  
10 25% 77%  
11 51% 52% Median
12 1.2% 1.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.4% 100%  
9 10% 98.6%  
10 76% 89% Median
11 13% 13%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 5% 100%  
9 8% 95%  
10 75% 88% Median
11 11% 13%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 2% 100%  
7 11% 98%  
8 84% 87% Median
9 3% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100% Last Result
5 3% 99.7%  
6 87% 96% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 21% 97%  
5 67% 76% Last Result, Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 22% 99.9% Last Result
4 76% 78% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 64% 100% Median
2 29% 36%  
3 7% 7% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 83 100% 82–84 82–86 81–86 81–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 99.8% 77–82 77–83 77–83 76–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 75 37% 75–79 75–79 75–80 74–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 39% 73–78 73–79 73–79 73–80
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 76 58% 71–76 70–76 70–77 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 66 0% 64–69 64–70 64–70 63–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 63 0% 63–68 63–69 63–70 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 64 0% 64–67 64–69 64–69 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 63 0% 63–67 63–67 63–67 62–69
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 62–66 60–66 60–67 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 62 0% 60–65 60–66 60–66 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 58–63 58–64 58–64 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 60 0% 58–61 57–61 57–62 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 55 0% 55–59 55–60 55–60 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 54–59 54–60 54–60 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 48–51 48–52 48–52 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 46 0% 44–49 44–50 44–50 44–50
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 46 0% 42–46 42–46 42–46 41–48
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 43 0% 40–43 40–44 40–44 39–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 35 0% 33–36 32–36 32–36 32–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 25–27 25–29 24–29 23–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 2% 99.7%  
82 12% 97%  
83 70% 85%  
84 6% 15% Median
85 3% 9% Last Result
86 5% 6%  
87 0.4% 1.0%  
88 0.5% 0.6%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.8% Majority
77 48% 99.4% Last Result
78 9% 51% Median
79 10% 42%  
80 9% 32%  
81 6% 23%  
82 12% 17%  
83 5% 5%  
84 0.5% 0.5%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 2% 99.9%  
75 61% 98%  
76 3% 37% Median, Majority
77 8% 35%  
78 15% 26%  
79 8% 11%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.9% 1.0%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 48% 99.6%  
74 3% 51% Last Result, Median
75 9% 48%  
76 16% 39% Majority
77 2% 23%  
78 15% 21%  
79 6% 7%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 8% 99.8%  
71 3% 92%  
72 3% 89%  
73 9% 86%  
74 7% 77%  
75 12% 70%  
76 54% 58% Median, Majority
77 3% 4%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 49% 99.4%  
65 0.2% 50% Median
66 10% 50%  
67 16% 40%  
68 9% 24%  
69 9% 15%  
70 5% 6%  
71 0.8% 1.1%  
72 0.4% 0.4%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 50% 99.6%  
64 1.5% 50% Median
65 9% 48%  
66 15% 39%  
67 3% 24%  
68 12% 21%  
69 5% 8%  
70 4% 4%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.8% 99.8%  
64 58% 99.0%  
65 12% 41% Median
66 15% 29%  
67 6% 13%  
68 2% 7%  
69 5% 5%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 2% 99.9%  
63 51% 98%  
64 5% 47% Median
65 23% 43%  
66 8% 20%  
67 10% 12%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 8% 99.8%  
61 0.7% 92%  
62 3% 91%  
63 6% 87%  
64 15% 82%  
65 14% 67%  
66 50% 53% Last Result, Median
67 3% 3%  
68 0.6% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100% Last Result
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 48% 99.5%  
61 1.0% 51% Median
62 3% 50%  
63 20% 48%  
64 6% 28%  
65 15% 22%  
66 6% 7%  
67 0.8% 1.2%  
68 0.4% 0.4%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0% 99.8% Last Result
58 49% 99.8%  
59 6% 51% Median
60 4% 45%  
61 18% 41%  
62 10% 23%  
63 7% 13%  
64 6% 6%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 7% 99.7%  
58 14% 93%  
59 19% 79%  
60 49% 60%  
61 7% 11% Last Result, Median
62 2% 4%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.6% 0.6%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 50% 99.7%  
56 4% 49% Median
57 26% 46%  
58 9% 20%  
59 4% 11%  
60 6% 7%  
61 1.0% 1.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.3% 100%  
54 48% 99.7% Last Result
55 0.6% 52% Median
56 8% 51%  
57 14% 43%  
58 9% 29%  
59 13% 20%  
60 6% 7%  
61 0.2% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 15% 99.4%  
49 71% 85%  
50 3% 14% Median
51 2% 10%  
52 6% 8%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.8% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 48% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 52% Median
46 5% 51%  
47 20% 46%  
48 8% 26%  
49 9% 18%  
50 9% 10%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 10% 99.5%  
43 3% 90%  
44 23% 86%  
45 7% 63%  
46 55% 56% Median
47 0.4% 2% Last Result
48 1.1% 1.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 12% 99.4%  
41 4% 88%  
42 8% 84%  
43 68% 76% Median
44 6% 8%  
45 0.7% 2%  
46 0.7% 0.8%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 9% 99.7%  
33 4% 91%  
34 11% 87%  
35 65% 76% Median
36 9% 11%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.7% 0.9%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 2% 98%  
25 12% 97%  
26 69% 85% Median
27 10% 16%  
28 0.8% 6%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations