Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 8–9 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.3% 20.4–22.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.9–22.8% 19.4–23.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.6% 11.9–13.4% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.1–14.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 34 33–35 32–35 32–35 31–35
Partij van de Arbeid 9 20 17–21 17–21 17–23 17–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 18–20 17–20 17–20 16–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 16–17 16–19 16–19 15–20
GroenLinks 14 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 11–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 12 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–13
Democraten 66 19 10 9–10 9–11 9–11 8–12
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
ChristenUnie 5 7 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
DENK 3 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.6%  
32 6% 98%  
33 8% 92% Last Result
34 47% 84% Median
35 37% 37%  
36 0% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 36% 99.9%  
18 5% 64%  
19 4% 60%  
20 20% 56% Median
21 32% 35%  
22 0.9% 3%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 7% 98%  
18 46% 91% Median
19 8% 45%  
20 37% 37% Last Result
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 48% 98%  
17 41% 50% Median
18 4% 10%  
19 5% 5% Last Result
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.6% 100%  
12 18% 99.4%  
13 46% 81% Median
14 33% 35% Last Result
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.3% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.6%  
11 29% 97%  
12 67% 68% Median
13 1.5% 1.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.3% 100%  
9 38% 98.7%  
10 55% 61% Median
11 5% 6%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 14% 99.6%  
10 68% 85% Median
11 16% 17%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.6% 100%  
7 74% 99.4% Median
8 19% 26%  
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 49% 99.7%  
5 44% 50% Last Result, Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 30% 100%  
3 45% 70% Last Result, Median
4 5% 25%  
5 20% 20%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 54% 54% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 77% 77% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 42% 42%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 87 100% 86–88 86–89 85–91 83–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 84 100% 82–87 82–87 81–87 79–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 80 99.4% 79–84 78–84 77–84 75–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 80 100% 80–82 80–83 79–83 78–84
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 77 63% 74–77 74–79 74–80 74–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 70 0% 69–72 68–72 67–73 66–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 68 0% 68–72 67–72 66–72 64–72
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 64–67 64–70 64–71 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 68 0% 66–69 66–69 66–70 65–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 67 0% 65–67 65–67 63–67 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 64–67 64–67 63–67 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 63 0% 62–64 61–65 60–66 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 63 0% 61–64 61–64 59–64 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 62 0% 61–64 60–64 59–64 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 60 0% 59–62 59–62 58–62 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 53 0% 52–55 51–55 50–56 49–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 50–52 49–52 48–52 47–53
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 46 0% 44–47 44–48 44–49 43–51
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 44 0% 41–46 41–47 41–48 41–49
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 36 0% 34–38 34–39 34–39 33–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 25–27 25–28 25–29 24–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.4% 100%  
83 0.9% 99.6%  
84 0.6% 98.7%  
85 3% 98% Last Result
86 36% 95%  
87 31% 59%  
88 19% 28% Median
89 4% 8%  
90 2% 5%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.7% 0.7%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.5% 99.9%  
80 0.8% 99.4%  
81 2% 98.6%  
82 33% 97%  
83 6% 64%  
84 15% 58% Median
85 7% 43%  
86 0.9% 35%  
87 34% 35%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0.6% 100%  
76 1.2% 99.4% Majority
77 2% 98%  
78 5% 96%  
79 15% 91%  
80 34% 77%  
81 2% 42% Median
82 6% 41%  
83 0.7% 35%  
84 34% 34%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 1.1% 99.9%  
79 3% 98.8%  
80 46% 96%  
81 7% 50% Median
82 37% 43%  
83 5% 6%  
84 0.6% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 35% 99.7%  
75 2% 65%  
76 9% 63% Majority
77 45% 54% Median
78 3% 10%  
79 2% 7%  
80 4% 5% Last Result
81 1.2% 1.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.5% 100%  
66 2% 99.5%  
67 1.0% 98%  
68 4% 97%  
69 38% 93%  
70 14% 55%  
71 31% 41% Median
72 7% 10%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.6% 100%  
65 1.4% 99.4%  
66 2% 98%  
67 5% 96%  
68 45% 91%  
69 3% 46% Median
70 2% 42%  
71 6% 40%  
72 34% 35% Last Result
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 36% 99.8%  
65 0.8% 64%  
66 15% 63% Last Result
67 40% 49% Median
68 2% 9%  
69 2% 7%  
70 2% 6%  
71 4% 4%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.3% 100%  
65 1.3% 99.6%  
66 33% 98%  
67 1.2% 65%  
68 21% 64% Median
69 40% 43%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
62 1.1% 99.9%  
63 1.4% 98.7%  
64 2% 97%  
65 31% 96%  
66 10% 64%  
67 52% 54% Median
68 1.5% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.8%  
70 0.5% 0.5%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 2% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 98%  
64 32% 97%  
65 4% 65%  
66 24% 61% Median
67 35% 37%  
68 0.8% 1.3%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 1.2% 99.9%  
59 0.9% 98.7%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 96% Last Result
62 40% 93%  
63 4% 53%  
64 44% 49% Median
65 2% 5%  
66 1.2% 3%  
67 1.5% 1.5%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
59 2% 99.5%  
60 1.5% 97%  
61 8% 96%  
62 15% 88%  
63 32% 74%  
64 41% 41% Median
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.7% 99.6%  
59 3% 99.0%  
60 2% 96%  
61 20% 94%  
62 31% 74%  
63 8% 43% Median
64 35% 35%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 1.4% 99.9%  
58 3% 98%  
59 32% 95%  
60 16% 63%  
61 9% 47% Median
62 37% 38%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 1.3% 99.8%  
50 2% 98%  
51 3% 97%  
52 39% 94%  
53 5% 55%  
54 15% 50% Median
55 32% 35%  
56 1.4% 3%  
57 1.4% 1.4%  
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.9% 99.8%  
48 2% 98.9%  
49 3% 97%  
50 49% 94%  
51 3% 44% Median
52 41% 41% Last Result
53 0.4% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 2% 99.9%  
44 35% 98%  
45 5% 63%  
46 43% 58%  
47 5% 15% Last Result, Median
48 6% 10%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.8% 1.5%  
51 0.6% 0.7%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 35% 100%  
42 2% 65%  
43 6% 63%  
44 45% 57% Median
45 2% 13%  
46 5% 11%  
47 2% 6%  
48 3% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.6%  
50 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.5% 100%  
34 38% 99.5%  
35 2% 61%  
36 15% 59%  
37 34% 44% Median
38 1.4% 10%  
39 7% 9%  
40 0.9% 2%  
41 0.7% 0.7%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.8% 100%  
25 31% 99.2%  
26 17% 68%  
27 43% 51% Median
28 5% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.4% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations