Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 7–12 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 28.4% 27.2–29.7% 26.8–30.1% 26.5–30.4% 25.9–31.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.3–11.9% 8.9–12.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.7% 8.9–10.6% 8.7–10.8% 8.5–11.0% 8.1–11.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.5% 7.7–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 8.4% 7.6–9.2% 7.4–9.4% 7.3–9.7% 6.9–10.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.2% 7.5–9.0% 7.3–9.3% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.1% 6.1–8.3% 5.7–8.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.8% 4.3–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 4.0–5.8% 3.7–6.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 3.1% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.4%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 44 44–45 44–45 44–45 42–47
GroenLinks 14 16 15–16 15–16 15–16 13–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 14–15 14–15 14–15 14–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 12–14 12–14 12–14 12–15
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 13 13–14 13–14 13–14 12–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 13 13 13 13 12–13
Socialistische Partij 14 11 11 11 11 10–11
Democraten 66 19 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 4 4 4 4–5
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
50Plus 4 0 0 0 0 0–1
DENK 3 1 1 1 1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.5% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.5%  
43 0.2% 99.4%  
44 67% 99.2% Median
45 31% 32%  
46 0.1% 0.8%  
47 0.7% 0.7%  
48 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.7% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
15 31% 99.0%  
16 67% 68% Median
17 0.7% 1.0%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 68% 99.8% Median
15 31% 32%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 31% 99.7%  
13 0.9% 69%  
14 67% 68% Median
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.9%  
13 67% 98.7% Median
14 31% 32%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 98% 98% Median
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.9% 99.8%  
11 98.7% 99.0% Median
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 31% 99.9%  
8 68% 69% Median
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100% Last Result
6 32% 99.8%  
7 68% 68% Median
8 0.4% 0.7%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 67% 100% Median
5 32% 33% Last Result
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100% Last Result
4 99.2% 99.8% Median
5 0.4% 0.5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 68% 100% Median
2 32% 32%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 98.7% 98.9% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 89 100% 85–89 85–89 85–89 85–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 88 100% 88 88 88 85–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 87 100% 85–87 85–87 85–87 85–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 84 100% 84 84 84 81–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 75 1.0% 74–75 74–75 74–75 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 75 0.9% 74–75 74–75 74–75 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 73 0.6% 70–73 70–73 70–73 70–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 72 0.6% 72 72 72 70–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 71 0% 71 71 71 69–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 71 0% 70–71 70–71 70–71 68–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 71 0% 70–71 70–71 70–71 67–74
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 70 0% 66–70 66–70 66–70 66–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 66 0% 66–67 66–67 66–67 64–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 66 0% 64–66 64–66 64–66 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 58 0% 58–60 58–60 58–60 56–61
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 55–59 55–59 55–59 55–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 58 0% 57–58 57–58 57–58 55–62
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 36 0% 34–36 34–36 34–36 34–37
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 33–35 33–35 33–35 33–36
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 28 0% 27–28 27–28 27–28 27–29
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 22 0% 19–22 19–22 19–22 19–23

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 31% 99.9%  
86 0.3% 69%  
87 0.1% 69%  
88 0.7% 69%  
89 68% 68% Median
90 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0% 99.8%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0% 99.7%  
85 0.8% 99.7%  
86 0.1% 98.9%  
87 0.4% 98.9%  
88 98% 98.5% Median
89 0.2% 0.9%  
90 0.7% 0.8%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 31% 99.5% Last Result
86 0.5% 69%  
87 67% 68% Median
88 0.4% 1.2%  
89 0.1% 0.8%  
90 0.7% 0.7%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 0% 99.7%  
81 0.6% 99.7%  
82 0.3% 99.0%  
83 0.4% 98.7%  
84 97% 98% Median
85 0.1% 0.9%  
86 0.7% 0.7%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0% 99.5%  
73 0.1% 99.5%  
74 31% 99.4%  
75 67% 68% Median
76 0.1% 1.0% Majority
77 0.2% 0.9%  
78 0.6% 0.6%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0% 99.8%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.1% 99.6%  
72 0.1% 99.5%  
73 0.6% 99.4%  
74 31% 98.8%  
75 67% 68% Median
76 0.2% 0.9% Majority
77 0.1% 0.7%  
78 0.6% 0.6%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 31% 99.5%  
71 0.1% 69%  
72 0.7% 69%  
73 67% 68% Median
74 0.3% 1.1%  
75 0.2% 0.8%  
76 0.6% 0.6% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.7% 99.3%  
72 98% 98.6% Median
73 0% 0.9%  
74 0.1% 0.9%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.6% 0.6% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.7%  
69 0.7% 99.5%  
70 0.2% 98.9%  
71 98% 98.6% Median
72 0.1% 1.0% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.8%  
74 0.7% 0.8%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.1% 99.3%  
70 32% 99.3%  
71 67% 68% Median
72 0.1% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.8%  
74 0.6% 0.6%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0% 99.8%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 0.2% 99.4%  
69 0.6% 99.3%  
70 31% 98.6%  
71 67% 67% Median
72 0.2% 0.8%  
73 0% 0.6%  
74 0.6% 0.6%  
75 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 31% 100%  
67 0.9% 69%  
68 0.2% 68%  
69 0.2% 68%  
70 67% 68% Median
71 0.2% 0.5%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.4%  
66 67% 99.3% Median
67 31% 32%  
68 0.4% 1.0%  
69 0.6% 0.7%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.3% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 31% 99.3%  
65 0.6% 68%  
66 67% 68% Median
67 0.4% 1.1%  
68 0.1% 0.7%  
69 0% 0.6%  
70 0.6% 0.6%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.2% 99.5%  
58 67% 99.3% Median
59 0.4% 32%  
60 31% 32%  
61 0.7% 0.8%  
62 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 31% 100%  
56 0.6% 69%  
57 0.4% 68%  
58 0.3% 68%  
59 67% 68% Median
60 0.1% 0.4%  
61 0% 0.3%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100% Last Result
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 0.1% 99.3%  
57 31% 99.2%  
58 67% 68% Median
59 0.1% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.9%  
61 0.1% 0.6%  
62 0.6% 0.6%  
63 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 31% 99.8%  
35 0.7% 69%  
36 67% 68% Median
37 1.0% 1.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 31% 99.7% Last Result
34 0.8% 69%  
35 67% 68% Median
36 0.2% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.4%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.6%  
27 32% 99.6%  
28 67% 68% Last Result, Median
29 0.8% 1.1%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 31% 99.9%  
20 0.3% 69%  
21 0.8% 69%  
22 67% 68% Median
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations