Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 5–9 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 28.1% 27.1–29.1% 26.8–29.4% 26.6–29.6% 26.1–30.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.9% 9.3–10.6% 9.1–10.8% 8.9–11.0% 8.6–11.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.9% 8.3–9.6% 8.1–9.8% 8.0–9.9% 7.7–10.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 8.1–9.3% 7.9–9.5% 7.8–9.7% 7.5–10.0%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.4% 6.8–8.0% 6.7–8.2% 6.6–8.4% 6.3–8.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.2% 6.6–7.8% 6.5–8.0% 6.4–8.1% 6.1–8.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.3% 5.8–6.9% 5.6–7.0% 5.5–7.2% 5.3–7.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.9% 4.4–5.4% 4.3–5.5% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–5.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.1% 2.7–3.5% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 3.1% 2.7–3.5% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9%
50Plus 3.1% 1.0% 0.8–1.2% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5%
DENK 2.1% 0.4% 0.3–0.6% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 43 43–45 43–45 42–45 42–46
GroenLinks 14 15 13–17 13–17 13–17 13–17
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 15 14–15 14–15 14–16 13–17
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 13 12–13 12–14 12–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 11–15
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–12
Democraten 66 19 11 11–12 10–12 10–12 9–12
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–11
ChristenUnie 5 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
50Plus 4 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
DENK 3 0 0 0 0 0
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.7%  
43 67% 97% Median
44 8% 30%  
45 21% 23%  
46 1.0% 1.2%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 35% 100%  
14 9% 65% Last Result
15 20% 56% Median
16 3% 35%  
17 32% 32%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 20% 98%  
15 75% 78% Median
16 3% 4%  
17 1.1% 1.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 7% 99.9%  
13 89% 93% Median
14 2% 3%  
15 0.7% 0.7%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.6% 100%  
12 33% 99.4%  
13 21% 67% Median
14 43% 45%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 100%  
10 4% 99.5%  
11 59% 96% Median
12 37% 37%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.9% 100%  
10 7% 99.1%  
11 72% 92% Median
12 19% 19%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 19% 100%  
9 35% 81% Median
10 43% 45%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 1.3% 100%  
7 13% 98.7%  
8 86% 86% Median
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 73% 99.7% Median
5 27% 27% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100% Last Result
4 56% 99.9% Median
5 37% 44%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 60% 99.6% Median
2 39% 39%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 92 100% 88–93 87–93 87–93 87–94
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 89 100% 87–91 87–91 87–91 86–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 87 100% 87–88 87–88 86–89 86–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 83 100% 82–83 82–83 82–84 81–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 75 22% 75–78 73–78 73–78 73–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 74 2% 73–74 73–74 73–75 71–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 72 0.3% 72–73 72–73 71–74 70–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 71 0.3% 71–72 71–72 71–73 70–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 70 0% 68–71 68–71 68–73 68–73
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 69 0% 69–70 67–70 67–71 67–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 70 0% 68–70 68–70 68–70 67–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 67 0% 67–70 66–70 66–70 65–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 68 0% 66–70 66–70 66–70 65–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 68 0% 67–69 67–69 67–69 66–71
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 59–61 57–61 57–61 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 57 0% 55–58 55–58 55–60 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 56 0% 56–58 56–58 55–58 54–59
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 38 0% 36–38 36–38 36–39 35–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 34 0% 33–35 33–35 33–35 32–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–28 25–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 24 0% 24–25 22–25 22–25 22–26

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 8% 99.9%  
88 35% 92%  
89 1.1% 56%  
90 0.9% 55% Last Result, Median
91 1.1% 54%  
92 34% 53%  
93 18% 19%  
94 0.5% 0.5%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
86 2% 99.8%  
87 39% 98%  
88 1.0% 59% Median
89 36% 58%  
90 1.2% 22%  
91 20% 20%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9%  
86 2% 99.7% Median
87 87% 97%  
88 7% 10%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.4% 0.4%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 2% 99.8%  
82 40% 98% Median
83 54% 58%  
84 3% 4%  
85 0.6% 1.2%  
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 9% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 91%  
75 68% 90% Median
76 3% 22% Last Result, Majority
77 0.7% 20%  
78 18% 19%  
79 0.4% 0.4%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.9% 99.5% Median
73 34% 98.6%  
74 60% 65%  
75 3% 5%  
76 2% 2% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 3% 99.4% Median
72 67% 96%  
73 27% 30%  
74 2% 3%  
75 1.3% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.4% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 77% 99.3% Median
72 19% 22% Last Result
73 1.0% 3%  
74 1.5% 2%  
75 0.7% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 34% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 66% Median
70 43% 65%  
71 19% 23%  
72 1.2% 4%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 7% 99.7%  
68 2% 93%  
69 56% 90% Median
70 32% 35%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 40% 99.4% Median
69 1.0% 59%  
70 56% 58%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.6% 0.6%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.5% 99.9%  
66 9% 99.4%  
67 67% 91% Median
68 1.1% 24%  
69 3% 23%  
70 19% 19%  
71 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.5% 99.9%  
66 34% 99.4%  
67 1.4% 66% Median
68 42% 64%  
69 1.4% 22%  
70 19% 21%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.7%  
67 39% 98% Median
68 37% 59%  
69 19% 21%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.8% 0.9%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 7% 99.9%  
58 3% 93%  
59 36% 90%  
60 2% 55% Median
61 50% 52%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 34% 99.6%  
56 2% 66% Median
57 36% 64%  
58 25% 29%  
59 0.9% 4%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.5%  
56 73% 97% Median
57 0.6% 24%  
58 21% 24%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.4%  
61 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 38% 99.4%  
37 4% 61% Median
38 54% 57%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.2% 99.7%  
33 41% 98.5% Last Result
34 20% 58% Median
35 37% 38%  
36 0.6% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 32% 99.5%  
26 28% 67% Median
27 37% 40%  
28 2% 3% Last Result
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 7% 100%  
23 0.7% 92%  
24 71% 92% Median
25 20% 21%  
26 0.7% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations