Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 21 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.7–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
50Plus 3.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 36 33–36 33–36 32–36 32–36
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 18–20 17–20 17–20 16–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 17–19 17–19 16–19 16–20
Partij van de Arbeid 9 18 18–19 18–20 17–20 17–20
GroenLinks 14 11 11–12 11–13 10–13 10–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–13
Democraten 66 19 11 10–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Socialistische Partij 14 10 10 9–11 9–11 9–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 7 7 6–8 6–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
50Plus 4 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
DENK 3 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 4% 99.8%  
33 7% 96% Last Result
34 17% 89%  
35 8% 72%  
36 64% 65% Median
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100%  
17 5% 98%  
18 18% 93%  
19 9% 75%  
20 67% 67% Last Result, Median
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 69% 96% Median
18 15% 28%  
19 11% 12% Last Result
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.5%  
18 72% 96% Median
19 20% 25%  
20 5% 5%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 3% 100%  
11 71% 97% Median
12 18% 26%  
13 7% 8%  
14 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.7%  
11 83% 96% Median
12 11% 13%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.0% 100%  
9 8% 99.0%  
10 21% 91%  
11 68% 69% Median
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 7% 99.7%  
10 86% 93% Median
11 7% 7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 5% 100%  
7 91% 95% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.5% 100%  
4 73% 98.5% Median
5 22% 25% Last Result
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 86% 99.8% Last Result, Median
4 7% 14%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 72% 100% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 80% 80% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 89 100% 87–89 86–89 84–89 84–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 87 100% 84–87 84–87 83–88 82–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 84 100% 81–84 80–84 79–84 79–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 82 100% 80–82 79–82 79–82 79–84
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 74 21% 74–76 74–77 74–78 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 71 0.1% 70–71 69–71 68–73 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 73 0% 70–73 69–73 67–73 67–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 71 0% 69–71 68–71 67–71 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 68 0% 68–69 68–70 67–70 66–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 67 0% 66–68 66–68 65–69 64–70
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 64–66 64–67 63–68 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 65 0% 65 64–66 63–66 63–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 64 0% 63–64 62–65 61–65 61–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 65 0% 61–65 61–65 60–65 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 64 0% 61–64 60–64 60–64 59–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 53 0% 52–53 51–53 50–54 49–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 54 0% 52–54 51–54 50–54 49–55
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 46 0% 46–47 46–48 44–49 43–50
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 42 0% 42–44 42–45 41–46 40–47
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 35 0% 35–37 35–38 34–39 33–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 28 0% 28 27–29 27–30 25–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 3% 99.9%  
85 2% 97% Last Result
86 2% 95%  
87 6% 93%  
88 18% 87%  
89 67% 69% Median
90 0.5% 2%  
91 1.4% 1.5%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 2% 100%  
83 2% 98%  
84 15% 97%  
85 8% 81%  
86 5% 73%  
87 64% 68% Median
88 2% 4%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 100%  
79 3% 99.7%  
80 7% 97%  
81 15% 90%  
82 4% 75%  
83 3% 71%  
84 66% 68% Median
85 2% 2%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 7% 99.7%  
80 7% 93%  
81 16% 86%  
82 67% 70% Median
83 0.6% 2%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 98%  
74 68% 98% Median
75 8% 29%  
76 15% 21% Majority
77 1.1% 6%  
78 5% 5%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 2% 100%  
67 0.3% 98%  
68 1.2% 98%  
69 4% 97%  
70 3% 93%  
71 85% 90% Median
72 2% 5%  
73 1.4% 3%  
74 1.5% 2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 3% 99.9%  
68 1.4% 97%  
69 5% 96%  
70 17% 91%  
71 4% 73%  
72 2% 69% Last Result
73 67% 67% Median
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.9% 99.8%  
67 4% 98.9%  
68 4% 95%  
69 22% 91%  
70 2% 69%  
71 66% 66% Median
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 2% 99.9%  
67 2% 98%  
68 82% 96% Median
69 5% 13%  
70 7% 9%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 2% 99.9%  
65 1.5% 98%  
66 18% 97%  
67 68% 79% Median
68 6% 10%  
69 2% 4%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 2% 100%  
63 2% 98%  
64 69% 96% Median
65 2% 26%  
66 18% 24% Last Result
67 1.2% 6%  
68 3% 5%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 5% 99.6%  
64 3% 95%  
65 83% 92% Median
66 7% 9%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.4%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 5% 99.8%  
62 0.7% 95%  
63 21% 95%  
64 67% 73% Median
65 4% 6%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 4% 99.7%  
61 7% 96% Last Result
62 3% 89%  
63 16% 86%  
64 4% 70%  
65 66% 66% Median
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 5% 99.3%  
61 5% 94%  
62 20% 90%  
63 3% 70%  
64 66% 67% Median
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 2% 100%  
50 3% 98%  
51 5% 96%  
52 20% 91% Last Result
53 67% 71% Median
54 3% 4%  
55 0.5% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 3% 99.4%  
51 4% 97%  
52 7% 93%  
53 16% 86%  
54 69% 70% Median
55 2% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 2% 100%  
44 2% 98%  
45 0.9% 97%  
46 73% 96% Median
47 17% 23% Last Result
48 2% 6%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.7% 0.8%  
51 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 2% 99.9%  
41 2% 98%  
42 66% 96% Median
43 4% 30%  
44 20% 26%  
45 0.9% 6%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 2% 100%  
34 2% 98%  
35 65% 97% Median
36 6% 32%  
37 18% 26%  
38 3% 7%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 2% 100%  
26 0.4% 98%  
27 6% 98%  
28 85% 92% Median
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations