Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 5 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.7–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.6% 11.9–13.4% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.1–14.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 32–34 31–35 31–36 31–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 19 19–20 18–22 17–23 17–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 17–19 17–20 16–20 16–21
Partij van de Arbeid 9 16 16–17 15–18 15–19 14–19
Democraten 66 19 11 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–14
GroenLinks 14 13 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 10–11 10–12 10–12 9–14
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–11 9–12 9–12 8–13
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
50Plus 4 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
DENK 3 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 9% 99.8%  
32 2% 91%  
33 66% 89% Last Result, Median
34 14% 23%  
35 5% 9%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 2% 99.6%  
18 5% 97%  
19 69% 92% Last Result, Median
20 15% 23%  
21 3% 8%  
22 1.4% 5%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 3% 99.6%  
17 15% 96%  
18 26% 81%  
19 50% 55% Median
20 5% 5% Last Result
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.7%  
15 7% 98%  
16 70% 91% Median
17 14% 21%  
18 3% 7%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 2% 100%  
11 53% 98% Median
12 15% 45%  
13 26% 31%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 2% 100%  
11 19% 98%  
12 25% 79%  
13 7% 54% Median
14 46% 46% Last Result
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.8% 100%  
10 74% 99.2% Median
11 16% 26%  
12 8% 10%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.7% 100%  
9 12% 99.3%  
10 59% 87% Median
11 22% 28%  
12 5% 6%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100% Last Result
6 56% 96% Median
7 31% 39%  
8 8% 8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 17% 99.3%  
5 60% 83% Last Result, Median
6 22% 22%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 24% 99.9% Last Result
4 27% 76% Median
5 48% 48%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 96% 96% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100%  
1 68% 72% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Last Result, Median
1 39% 39%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 87 100% 85–90 85–90 85–91 84–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 86 100% 83–88 83–88 82–89 82–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 82–85 80–86 80–88 80–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 80–84 80–84 78–85 78–86
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 76 92% 76–79 74–79 74–80 73–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 70 2% 69–73 69–74 69–75 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 71 0.5% 69–73 68–73 68–73 67–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 68 0% 68–71 68–71 67–72 65–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 68 0% 66–70 66–71 65–72 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 67 0% 65–69 65–70 64–71 64–72
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 65–68 64–68 64–69 62–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 63 0% 63–66 62–68 62–68 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 63 0% 63–67 62–67 62–68 61–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 62 0% 62–65 61–67 61–67 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 60 0% 60–64 60–65 59–65 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 52 0% 51–54 50–56 50–56 50–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 49–51 48–51 48–52 46–53
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 47 0% 46–50 46–50 45–50 44–51
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 41 0% 41–45 40–45 40–46 39–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 35 0% 35–37 34–38 33–39 32–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 30–33 30–34 30–34 28–35

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.5% 100%  
84 0.7% 99.5%  
85 44% 98.9% Last Result, Median
86 4% 54%  
87 6% 50%  
88 24% 44%  
89 7% 20%  
90 10% 14%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.3% 1.3%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 100%  
82 3% 99.9%  
83 20% 97%  
84 5% 78%  
85 7% 72% Median
86 50% 66%  
87 5% 16%  
88 7% 11%  
89 4% 4%  
90 0.3% 0.3%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.4% 100%  
80 5% 99.6%  
81 0.3% 95%  
82 8% 95% Median
83 49% 87%  
84 22% 38%  
85 11% 16%  
86 1.5% 5%  
87 0.4% 4%  
88 2% 3%  
89 1.1% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 100%  
78 3% 99.9%  
79 2% 97%  
80 24% 96%  
81 50% 72% Median
82 6% 22%  
83 5% 17%  
84 9% 12%  
85 3% 3%  
86 0.6% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.3% 100%  
73 2% 99.7%  
74 5% 98%  
75 1.1% 93% Median
76 47% 92% Majority
77 16% 45%  
78 18% 29%  
79 7% 11%  
80 4% 4% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.4% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.6%  
69 48% 99.5% Median
70 8% 51%  
71 4% 44%  
72 20% 39%  
73 10% 19%  
74 6% 9%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 1.2% 2% Last Result, Majority
77 0.5% 0.5%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.5% 99.9%  
68 8% 99.4%  
69 3% 92%  
70 19% 89%  
71 52% 70% Median
72 6% 18% Last Result
73 11% 12%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.2%  
76 0.5% 0.5% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.4% 100%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 0.7% 98.9%  
67 2% 98%  
68 64% 96% Median
69 12% 32%  
70 7% 20%  
71 9% 14%  
72 4% 5%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 3% 99.9%  
66 17% 97%  
67 7% 79% Median
68 47% 73%  
69 12% 26%  
70 6% 14%  
71 3% 8%  
72 4% 5%  
73 0.6% 0.6%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 3% 99.9%  
65 17% 97%  
66 6% 80% Median
67 47% 74%  
68 12% 27%  
69 7% 15%  
70 3% 8%  
71 4% 5%  
72 0.6% 0.6%  
73 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.5% 100%  
63 0.7% 99.5%  
64 4% 98.8%  
65 6% 94% Median
66 48% 89% Last Result
67 21% 41%  
68 16% 20%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.4% 2%  
71 1.3% 1.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 1.0% 99.9%  
62 5% 98.9%  
63 63% 94% Median
64 3% 31%  
65 15% 27%  
66 5% 12%  
67 2% 8%  
68 6% 6%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 1.2% 100%  
62 8% 98.8%  
63 45% 91% Median
64 1.4% 46%  
65 24% 44%  
66 3% 21%  
67 13% 17%  
68 4% 4%  
69 0.1% 0.6%  
70 0% 0.5%  
71 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 1.0% 100%  
61 5% 99.0%  
62 63% 94% Median
63 2% 31%  
64 14% 28%  
65 7% 15%  
66 2% 8%  
67 6% 6%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 0.5% 99.4%  
59 3% 98.8%  
60 53% 96% Median
61 2% 42% Last Result
62 23% 41%  
63 4% 17%  
64 8% 14%  
65 5% 6%  
66 0.6% 0.7%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.7%  
50 6% 99.5%  
51 4% 93%  
52 62% 89% Last Result, Median
53 6% 27%  
54 13% 21%  
55 2% 8%  
56 5% 5%  
57 0.3% 0.8%  
58 0.5% 0.5%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.4% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 1.2% 99.2%  
48 6% 98%  
49 64% 92% Median
50 11% 27%  
51 13% 16%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.4% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0% 99.8%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 1.2% 99.6%  
45 2% 98%  
46 45% 97% Median
47 9% 52% Last Result
48 22% 43%  
49 4% 20%  
50 16% 17%  
51 1.1% 1.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 2% 99.9%  
40 5% 98%  
41 49% 93% Median
42 19% 44%  
43 9% 25%  
44 4% 16%  
45 8% 13%  
46 4% 4%  
47 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.8%  
33 3% 99.2%  
34 5% 96%  
35 65% 92% Median
36 5% 27%  
37 12% 21%  
38 5% 9%  
39 4% 4%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 1.1% 99.4%  
30 48% 98% Median
31 13% 50%  
32 21% 37%  
33 10% 16%  
34 5% 5%  
35 0.8% 0.8%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations