Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 3–6 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 24.9% 23.7–26.2% 23.4–26.5% 23.1–26.8% 22.5–27.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.1% 10.2–12.0% 10.0–12.3% 9.8–12.5% 9.4–13.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.4% 9.6–11.3% 9.4–11.6% 9.2–11.8% 8.8–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.3% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.5% 9.1–11.7% 8.7–12.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.1% 8.3–10.0% 8.1–10.2% 7.9–10.4% 7.6–10.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–8.9% 6.8–9.1% 6.5–9.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.1% 5.5–6.8% 5.3–7.0% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.4% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.7%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.1% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.9% 2.5–3.4% 2.3–3.6% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–4.0%
50Plus 3.1% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.1%
DENK 2.1% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.1%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 40 38–41 37–41 36–41 36–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–17 15–18 15–18 15–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 15–18 15–18 14–18 13–18
GroenLinks 14 16 14–17 14–17 14–18 14–18
Democraten 66 19 13 12–15 12–16 12–16 12–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–13 11–13 10–14 10–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 9 9–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 5 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
50Plus 4 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
DENK 3 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.3% 100%  
36 3% 99.6%  
37 5% 96%  
38 3% 91%  
39 22% 89%  
40 21% 66% Median
41 43% 45%  
42 0.1% 1.3%  
43 0.4% 1.2%  
44 0.8% 0.8%  
45 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 17% 99.8%  
16 7% 83%  
17 68% 75% Median
18 6% 7%  
19 1.1% 1.5% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 1.3% 98%  
15 7% 96%  
16 65% 90% Median
17 0.6% 25%  
18 24% 24%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 28% 99.7% Last Result
15 7% 72%  
16 19% 66% Median
17 43% 47%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 25% 99.8%  
13 43% 75% Median
14 21% 33%  
15 3% 12%  
16 9% 10%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 4% 100%  
11 21% 96%  
12 64% 74% Median
13 8% 10%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 25% 99.9%  
11 46% 75% Median
12 4% 29%  
13 24% 25%  
14 1.1% 1.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.2% 99.9%  
8 6% 98.7%  
9 65% 93% Median
10 27% 27%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 40% 100% Last Result
6 29% 60% Median
7 28% 31%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.2% 100%  
4 50% 98.8% Median
5 49% 49% Last Result
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100% Last Result
4 31% 95%  
5 63% 63% Median
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Median
1 25% 25%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 92 100% 90–93 90–93 90–93 88–97
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 88 100% 85–89 85–90 85–91 85–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 89 100% 86–90 85–90 84–90 82–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 85 100% 82–85 81–86 80–86 78–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 76 74% 74–77 74–78 74–78 73–81
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 73 9% 71–75 71–76 71–76 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 73 1.3% 71–74 70–74 69–75 68–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 72 1.2% 71–74 70–74 69–75 68–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 74 2% 70–75 70–75 68–75 67–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 70 0% 68–71 68–72 67–72 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 68 0% 67–69 65–70 65–71 64–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 67 0% 66–69 65–70 65–71 63–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 69 0% 65–70 65–70 65–70 64–72
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 62–66 62–67 62–68 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 64–66 63–68 62–68 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 57 0% 54–58 54–58 54–59 52–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 52 0% 50–53 48–53 48–53 48–55
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 40–44 40–46 38–46 38–47
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 34 0% 32–36 32–37 32–38 31–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 30 0% 29–32 29–33 28–34 28–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 26–30 26–30 26–31 25–32

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 1.0% 99.5%  
90 39% 98.5% Last Result
91 5% 60%  
92 6% 55% Median
93 47% 49%  
94 0.8% 2%  
95 0.2% 1.3%  
96 0.2% 1.2%  
97 0.9% 0.9%  
98 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.2% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 19% 99.6% Last Result
86 4% 80%  
87 1.1% 76%  
88 59% 75% Median
89 8% 16%  
90 3% 8%  
91 4% 5%  
92 1.0% 1.1%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.6% 100%  
83 2% 99.4%  
84 2% 98%  
85 2% 96%  
86 4% 94%  
87 3% 90%  
88 21% 86%  
89 20% 66% Median
90 44% 46%  
91 0.2% 2%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.7% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.2%  
80 3% 98.9%  
81 4% 96%  
82 2% 92%  
83 22% 90%  
84 1.4% 68% Median
85 60% 66%  
86 4% 6%  
87 0.2% 2%  
88 0.1% 1.4%  
89 1.2% 1.4%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.5%  
74 16% 99.2%  
75 9% 83%  
76 62% 74% Last Result, Median, Majority
77 5% 12%  
78 5% 7%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.2% 1.1%  
81 0.9% 0.9%  
82 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.4% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 20% 99.3%  
72 21% 79%  
73 43% 59% Median
74 2% 15%  
75 5% 14%  
76 6% 9% Majority
77 0.2% 2%  
78 2% 2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.4%  
70 5% 97%  
71 25% 92%  
72 4% 68%  
73 17% 63% Median
74 44% 47%  
75 1.4% 3%  
76 0.1% 1.3% Majority
77 1.2% 1.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.7%  
69 2% 98%  
70 5% 96%  
71 27% 91%  
72 16% 64%  
73 1.4% 47% Median
74 43% 46%  
75 1.4% 3%  
76 0.1% 1.2% Majority
77 1.1% 1.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 0.6% 99.7%  
68 2% 99.1%  
69 0.3% 97%  
70 21% 97%  
71 6% 76%  
72 3% 69% Last Result
73 4% 66% Median
74 41% 62%  
75 20% 21%  
76 1.1% 2% Majority
77 0.5% 0.5%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.2%  
68 19% 97%  
69 24% 78%  
70 6% 54% Median
71 43% 48% Last Result
72 4% 6%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.8% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 5% 99.3%  
66 0.5% 94%  
67 28% 94%  
68 18% 66% Median
69 41% 48%  
70 4% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.2% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 1.0%  
74 0.8% 0.8%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 1.4% 99.4%  
65 4% 98%  
66 6% 94%  
67 41% 89%  
68 1.1% 48% Median
69 41% 47%  
70 4% 6%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.1% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 0.9%  
74 0.8% 0.8%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 20% 99.3%  
66 4% 80%  
67 4% 76%  
68 5% 72%  
69 24% 67% Median
70 41% 43%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 1.0% 1.0%  
73 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.6% 99.9%  
62 39% 99.3%  
63 0.6% 60%  
64 44% 60% Median
65 2% 15%  
66 5% 14% Last Result
67 6% 9%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
62 4% 99.3%  
63 4% 96%  
64 40% 92%  
65 2% 52% Median
66 43% 50%  
67 2% 7%  
68 5% 5%  
69 0.5% 0.5%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
53 0.2% 99.3%  
54 24% 99.1%  
55 5% 75%  
56 4% 70%  
57 23% 66% Median
58 40% 43%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.2% 1.0%  
61 0.8% 0.8%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 7% 99.6%  
49 0.8% 93%  
50 18% 92%  
51 4% 74%  
52 27% 70% Median
53 41% 42%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.8% 0.8%  
56 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 3% 100%  
39 0.3% 97%  
40 16% 96%  
41 22% 80%  
42 43% 58% Median
43 3% 15%  
44 2% 12%  
45 1.2% 10%  
46 7% 9%  
47 2% 2% Last Result
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.6% 100%  
32 19% 99.4%  
33 0.9% 80% Last Result
34 40% 80%  
35 7% 39% Median
36 25% 33%  
37 5% 8%  
38 3% 3%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 4% 99.8%  
29 37% 96%  
30 42% 59% Median
31 7% 17%  
32 1.1% 10%  
33 4% 9%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 19% 99.4%  
27 1.2% 80%  
28 5% 79% Last Result
29 62% 74% Median
30 8% 12%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.6% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations