Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 19 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.7–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 34 33–34 32–34 32–35 31–36
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 18–20 17–20 17–20 17–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 17–18 16–18 16–19 14–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 15–16 15–16 15–16 14–17
Democraten 66 19 15 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
GroenLinks 14 11 11–12 11–13 11–13 10–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 12 12–13 12–14 12–14 11–14
Socialistische Partij 14 11 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–11
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
DENK 3 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 6% 99.4%  
33 28% 93% Last Result
34 61% 65% Median
35 3% 4%  
36 0.4% 0.7%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 5% 99.8%  
18 9% 95%  
19 4% 86%  
20 81% 82% Last Result, Median
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.4% 100%  
15 1.0% 98.6%  
16 3% 98%  
17 69% 94% Median
18 21% 25%  
19 5% 5% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.6%  
15 67% 98.9% Median
16 31% 32%  
17 1.2% 1.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 22% 99.5%  
14 13% 78%  
15 64% 65% Median
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 2% 100%  
11 61% 98% Median
12 28% 37%  
13 8% 9%  
14 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.2% 99.9%  
11 1.3% 99.8%  
12 67% 98% Median
13 22% 32%  
14 10% 10%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 30% 99.9%  
10 2% 70%  
11 67% 68% Median
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100% Last Result
6 90% 99.8% Median
7 9% 10%  
8 0.9% 1.1%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 89% 99.8% Median
5 9% 11% Last Result
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 13% 100% Last Result
4 84% 87% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 70% 70% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 36% 36%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 87 100% 85–87 85–89 85–89 84–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 87 100% 85–88 84–88 83–88 81–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 82–83 82–85 81–85 80–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 83 100% 81–84 80–84 80–84 78–84
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 75 7% 74–75 74–77 74–77 73–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 72 0.1% 70–72 69–73 69–73 68–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 71 0% 68–71 67–71 67–71 65–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 68 0% 67–68 66–69 65–69 64–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 67 0% 66–68 66–69 65–69 63–69
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 64–66 64–68 64–68 63–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 65–67 64–68 64–68 63–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 66 0% 63–66 63–66 63–66 62–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 64 0% 64 62–66 61–66 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 63 0% 63–64 61–65 61–66 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 64 0% 62–64 62–64 62–64 61–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 51 0% 49–51 49–52 49–52 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 48–49 48–49 48–50 46–52
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 47 0% 47 45–48 45–49 44–49
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 38 0% 38–40 38–41 37–42 36–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 32 0% 32–34 31–34 31–35 30–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 32 0% 31–32 30–33 29–33 28–33

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 2% 100%  
85 9% 98% Last Result
86 21% 89%  
87 62% 68% Median
88 0.4% 6%  
89 5% 6%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.4% 0.4%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 2% 100%  
82 0.1% 98%  
83 0.9% 98%  
84 7% 97%  
85 4% 91%  
86 5% 87%  
87 62% 82% Median
88 20% 20%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.7% 100%  
81 2% 99.3%  
82 27% 97%  
83 63% 70% Median
84 2% 7%  
85 4% 6%  
86 0.2% 1.1%  
87 0.1% 1.0%  
88 0.9% 0.9%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.2% 100%  
78 2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 98%  
80 4% 98%  
81 6% 94%  
82 1.2% 88%  
83 66% 87% Median
84 20% 20%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.7%  
73 1.2% 99.6%  
74 20% 98%  
75 71% 78% Median
76 0.8% 7% Majority
77 5% 6%  
78 0.5% 0.9%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 2% 100%  
69 5% 98%  
70 22% 93%  
71 3% 71%  
72 62% 67% Median
73 4% 6%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 1.4% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 98%  
67 6% 98%  
68 3% 92%  
69 5% 89%  
70 2% 84%  
71 81% 82% Median
72 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 1.5% 99.9%  
65 1.2% 98%  
66 4% 97%  
67 6% 93%  
68 82% 88% Median
69 5% 5%  
70 0.2% 0.6%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 2% 100%  
64 0.5% 98%  
65 1.0% 98%  
66 9% 97%  
67 62% 88% Median
68 21% 26%  
69 5% 5%  
70 0.2% 0.5%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 1.2% 99.6%  
64 67% 98% Median
65 20% 32%  
66 6% 12% Last Result
67 0.9% 6%  
68 5% 5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 2% 100%  
64 3% 98%  
65 6% 95%  
66 62% 88% Median
67 21% 26%  
68 4% 6%  
69 1.0% 1.2%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.3% 100%  
62 2% 99.7%  
63 8% 98%  
64 20% 90%  
65 3% 70%  
66 65% 66% Median
67 1.0% 1.3%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 4% 99.5%  
62 1.3% 95%  
63 1.0% 94%  
64 86% 93% Median
65 1.3% 6%  
66 5% 5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 2% 99.9%  
61 4% 98%  
62 1.1% 94%  
63 67% 93% Median
64 21% 26%  
65 0.4% 5%  
66 5% 5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
62 28% 99.3%  
63 7% 71%  
64 63% 64% Median
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 2% 100%  
48 0.4% 98%  
49 9% 98%  
50 2% 89%  
51 81% 87% Median
52 5% 7% Last Result
53 0.4% 1.4%  
54 0.9% 1.0%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 1.3% 99.3%  
48 8% 98%  
49 86% 90% Median
50 3% 4%  
51 1.0% 2%  
52 0.6% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.5% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.5%  
45 6% 99.2%  
46 0.7% 93%  
47 86% 93% Last Result, Median
48 2% 6%  
49 4% 4%  
50 0.4% 0.4%  
51 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 2% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 98%  
38 66% 97% Median
39 6% 32%  
40 20% 26%  
41 1.3% 6%  
42 4% 4%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 2% 100%  
31 4% 98%  
32 63% 94% Median
33 6% 31%  
34 21% 25%  
35 4% 4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.4%  
30 4% 97%  
31 25% 93%  
32 63% 68% Median
33 5% 5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations