Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 24–26 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 24.9% 23.2–26.6% 22.7–27.1% 22.3–27.6% 21.6–28.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.1–12.6% 9.8–13.0% 9.5–13.4% 9.0–14.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.7% 8.6–10.9% 8.3–11.3% 8.0–11.6% 7.5–12.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.8% 7.8–10.0% 7.5–10.4% 7.3–10.7% 6.8–11.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.3% 7.2–10.6% 6.7–11.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.3% 7.3–9.4% 7.0–9.8% 6.7–10.1% 6.3–10.7%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.5% 6.5–8.6% 6.3–9.0% 6.1–9.3% 5.6–9.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.5% 5.6–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.7%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
50Plus 3.1% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.3%
DENK 2.1% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 39 35–42 35–42 35–42 34–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 15 14–18 14–18 13–18 12–18
Democraten 66 19 13 10–15 10–15 10–16 10–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 12–15 11–15 11–15 10–17
GroenLinks 14 12 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Socialistische Partij 14 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 8–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 8–11 8–12 7–12 7–13
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–4 2–4 2–5 1–5
50Plus 4 3 2–3 2–3 1–4 1–4
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
34 0.6% 99.7%  
35 15% 99.1%  
36 6% 84%  
37 12% 78%  
38 8% 66%  
39 27% 58% Median
40 2% 31%  
41 15% 30%  
42 14% 15%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 0.7% 99.6%  
15 21% 99.0%  
16 17% 78%  
17 19% 61% Median
18 14% 42%  
19 23% 28% Last Result
20 4% 6%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.7%  
13 3% 98%  
14 17% 95%  
15 38% 79% Median
16 27% 40%  
17 3% 13%  
18 10% 10%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 10% 100%  
11 3% 90%  
12 27% 87%  
13 20% 60% Median
14 29% 40%  
15 9% 12%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.5% 100%  
11 8% 99.5%  
12 8% 91%  
13 24% 83%  
14 31% 59% Median
15 27% 28%  
16 0.7% 1.3%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 4% 99.9%  
10 18% 96%  
11 23% 78%  
12 18% 55% Median
13 32% 38%  
14 5% 6% Last Result
15 1.4% 1.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.6% 99.9%  
9 13% 99.2%  
10 13% 86%  
11 45% 73% Median
12 24% 28%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 24% 97%  
9 23% 73%  
10 21% 50% Median
11 24% 29%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0.6% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 42% 98% Last Result
6 16% 56% Median
7 36% 40%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.4% 0.9%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 11% 99.9%  
5 28% 89% Last Result
6 41% 61% Median
7 18% 19%  
8 0.8% 0.9%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 54% 99.4% Median
3 21% 46% Last Result
4 19% 24%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 38% 97%  
3 54% 59% Median
4 5% 5% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 63% 99.6% Median
2 34% 37%  
3 3% 3% Last Result
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 89 100% 84–92 84–92 84–93 82–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 87 100% 82–89 81–91 81–91 80–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 83 99.9% 81–86 81–87 81–87 78–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 99.5% 79–83 78–84 78–85 76–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 75 35% 71–78 70–79 70–80 69–80
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 73 9% 69–75 69–77 69–77 67–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 72 0.1% 68–73 68–73 67–75 66–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 71 1.0% 68–73 67–74 67–74 65–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 69 0% 65–72 65–73 65–73 62–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 69 0% 66–73 66–73 65–73 63–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 68 0% 64–70 64–71 64–72 62–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 68 0% 65–71 64–72 64–72 63–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 64 0% 63–71 62–71 61–71 60–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 66 0% 62–68 61–69 61–70 59–70
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 58–65 58–65 57–66 56–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 56 0% 52–58 52–59 52–60 50–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 53 0% 49–57 48–57 48–57 47–57
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 39–46 38–47 38–47 38–49
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 34–39 34–39 34–40 32–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 25–34 25–34 25–34 25–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 31 0% 28–33 28–33 27–33 26–35

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.6% 99.9%  
83 0.6% 99.3%  
84 11% 98.7%  
85 1.0% 88% Last Result
86 17% 87%  
87 2% 71%  
88 17% 69%  
89 25% 52% Median
90 8% 27%  
91 3% 19%  
92 11% 16%  
93 5% 5%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.7% 100%  
81 8% 99.3%  
82 1.0% 91%  
83 16% 90%  
84 0.6% 74%  
85 1.3% 74%  
86 16% 72%  
87 9% 56% Median
88 23% 47%  
89 15% 23%  
90 2% 9% Last Result
91 5% 6%  
92 1.1% 1.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9% Majority
77 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 99.4%  
80 0.9% 99.0%  
81 19% 98%  
82 11% 79%  
83 20% 68% Median
84 13% 48%  
85 24% 35%  
86 5% 10%  
87 5% 5%  
88 0.3% 0.3%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.8% 99.5% Majority
77 0.9% 98.7%  
78 4% 98%  
79 26% 94%  
80 8% 67%  
81 35% 60% Median
82 8% 25%  
83 11% 17%  
84 2% 6%  
85 4% 4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.7%  
70 9% 99.3%  
71 2% 91%  
72 2% 88%  
73 27% 86%  
74 2% 60%  
75 23% 58% Median
76 9% 35% Last Result, Majority
77 12% 26%  
78 7% 14%  
79 2% 7%  
80 5% 5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.7% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.2%  
69 18% 99.0%  
70 9% 81%  
71 16% 73%  
72 5% 56%  
73 4% 51% Median
74 35% 47%  
75 3% 12%  
76 3% 9% Majority
77 6% 7%  
78 0.3% 0.8%  
79 0.5% 0.6%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.6%  
66 1.0% 99.5%  
67 1.4% 98.5%  
68 17% 97%  
69 1.2% 80%  
70 17% 78%  
71 7% 61% Median
72 20% 54% Last Result
73 29% 34%  
74 0.5% 5%  
75 4% 4%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 0.7% 99.4%  
67 8% 98.7%  
68 17% 90%  
69 2% 73%  
70 5% 71%  
71 23% 66% Median
72 27% 43%  
73 6% 16%  
74 8% 10%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.8% 1.0% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.5% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.4%  
64 1.1% 99.3%  
65 9% 98%  
66 26% 89%  
67 3% 63%  
68 4% 60%  
69 8% 55% Median
70 21% 47%  
71 4% 26% Last Result
72 12% 22%  
73 9% 10%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9% Last Result
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.6%  
66 11% 96%  
67 20% 85%  
68 3% 65%  
69 14% 62%  
70 6% 48% Median
71 9% 42%  
72 21% 33%  
73 11% 12%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.2%  
64 9% 98.6%  
65 2% 90%  
66 17% 88%  
67 4% 71%  
68 18% 66%  
69 27% 49% Median
70 17% 22%  
71 0.6% 5%  
72 4% 5%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.5%  
64 8% 98.9%  
65 15% 91%  
66 4% 76%  
67 5% 72%  
68 19% 67% Median
69 17% 48%  
70 17% 31%  
71 5% 14%  
72 8% 9%  
73 0.3% 1.2%  
74 0.8% 0.9%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.7% 99.6%  
61 3% 98.9% Last Result
62 5% 96%  
63 5% 91%  
64 36% 85%  
65 20% 49%  
66 5% 29% Median
67 13% 25%  
68 0.9% 12%  
69 0.8% 11%  
70 0.4% 10%  
71 10% 10%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.3%  
61 8% 98.8%  
62 1.1% 91%  
63 17% 90%  
64 5% 72%  
65 13% 67%  
66 25% 54% Median
67 9% 30%  
68 15% 20%  
69 0.8% 5%  
70 4% 4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 4% 99.0%  
58 19% 95%  
59 8% 76%  
60 2% 68%  
61 3% 66%  
62 16% 63% Median
63 34% 47%  
64 3% 14%  
65 6% 11%  
66 3% 4% Last Result
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0% 0.3%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.9% 99.2%  
52 23% 98% Last Result
53 3% 75%  
54 2% 72%  
55 2% 69%  
56 18% 67% Median
57 10% 49%  
58 33% 39%  
59 2% 6%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.6%  
48 4% 98.9%  
49 7% 95%  
50 18% 88%  
51 12% 70%  
52 8% 58%  
53 19% 50% Median
54 17% 31%  
55 3% 14%  
56 0.7% 11%  
57 10% 10%  
58 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 10% 100%  
39 1.3% 90%  
40 0.9% 89%  
41 5% 88%  
42 16% 83%  
43 9% 67%  
44 2% 58% Median
45 29% 56%  
46 17% 27%  
47 8% 10% Last Result
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.1% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.8%  
33 0.7% 98% Last Result
34 11% 98%  
35 20% 87%  
36 17% 67%  
37 5% 50% Median
38 18% 45%  
39 22% 27%  
40 3% 5%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 10% 100%  
26 0.4% 90%  
27 0.7% 90%  
28 15% 89%  
29 4% 74%  
30 16% 70% Median
31 40% 54%  
32 2% 14%  
33 1.3% 13%  
34 9% 11%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.5%  
37 0.2% 0.4%  
38 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.6% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.2%  
28 12% 97% Last Result
29 19% 86%  
30 6% 67%  
31 16% 61% Median
32 23% 45%  
33 19% 21%  
34 0.7% 2%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations