Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 9 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 26.4% 24.9–28.0% 24.5–28.5% 24.1–28.9% 23.4–29.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.8% 9.7–13.1% 9.2–13.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.6% 8.6–10.7% 8.3–11.0% 8.1–11.3% 7.7–11.8%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.4% 8.5–10.5% 8.2–10.8% 8.0–11.1% 7.5–11.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.6% 7.7–9.6% 7.4–10.0% 7.2–10.2% 6.8–10.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.2% 7.3–9.3% 7.1–9.6% 6.9–9.8% 6.4–10.3%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.6% 6.8–8.6% 6.5–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 5.9–9.7%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.5% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.3–8.0% 4.9–8.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.6% 4.0–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.6–5.9% 3.3–6.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 2.8% 2.3–3.4% 2.1–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.8–4.1%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.2–3.4% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.7–4.1%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5%
DENK 2.1% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 41 41 41 39–42 37–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 16 16–17 16–17 15–19
GroenLinks 14 15 15 15 14–16 12–17
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 13 13 13 12–14 12–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 13 13 12–14 11–16
Democraten 66 19 15 15 13–15 12–15 11–15
Forum voor Democratie 2 12 12 12 10–13 9–15
Socialistische Partij 14 10 10 10 9–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 6 6 6–7 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4 4 4 2–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3 3–4 3–5
50Plus 4 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
DENK 3 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.8% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.2%  
39 0.9% 98%  
40 2% 97%  
41 91% 96% Median
42 3% 5%  
43 0.2% 2%  
44 0.9% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 92% 98% Median
17 4% 6%  
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.5%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.4%  
14 1.5% 98% Last Result
15 93% 97% Median
16 1.3% 4%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 94% 97% Median
14 2% 3%  
15 1.5% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.4%  
13 93% 96% Median
14 1.3% 3%  
15 0.4% 2%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.7%  
12 2% 98.6%  
13 3% 96%  
14 2% 94%  
15 92% 92% Median
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 100%  
10 3% 99.3%  
11 0.5% 96%  
12 93% 96% Median
13 1.0% 3%  
14 1.0% 2%  
15 0.9% 1.0%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 0.5% 98%  
10 93% 97% Median
11 4% 4%  
12 0.3% 0.6%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100% Last Result
6 96% 99.5% Median
7 2% 4%  
8 1.3% 2%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 1.0% 99.3%  
4 97% 98% Median
5 0.9% 2% Last Result
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 96% 99.7% Last Result, Median
4 3% 4%  
5 0.9% 1.0%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 95% 96% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 95% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 93 100% 93 93 91–95 87–96
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 91 100% 91 91 90–92 83–94
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 85 100% 85 85–86 85–88 82–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 82 100% 82 82 81–85 79–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 78 98% 78 78 76–79 71–81
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 75 4% 75 75 73–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 73 2% 73 73 72–75 67–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 72 2% 72 72 72–75 67–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 72 0.2% 72 72 69–73 65–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 70 0.1% 70 70–71 70–72 64–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 70 0.4% 70 70–71 70–72 67–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 70 0.1% 70 70 68–72 64–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 69 0.1% 69 69 68–71 64–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 69 0% 69 68–69 65–69 62–70
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 65 65 63–66 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 57 0% 57 57–58 56–59 52–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 54 0% 54 54 54–55 49–58
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 44 43–44 42–44 40–47
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 35 35–37 35–38 33–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 29 29–30 29–32 27–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 31 30–31 28–31 27–32

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 1.3% 99.9%  
88 0% 98.7%  
89 0.9% 98.6%  
90 0.2% 98% Last Result
91 0.6% 98%  
92 1.3% 97%  
93 92% 96% Median
94 0.3% 3%  
95 1.2% 3%  
96 2% 2%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.6% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.4%  
85 0% 99.4% Last Result
86 0.1% 99.4%  
87 0.1% 99.3%  
88 0.9% 99.2%  
89 0.4% 98%  
90 1.3% 98%  
91 94% 97% Median
92 2% 3%  
93 0.4% 1.5%  
94 1.0% 1.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0% 99.8%  
82 0.6% 99.8%  
83 1.0% 99.2%  
84 0% 98%  
85 93% 98% Median
86 0.8% 5%  
87 1.5% 4%  
88 0.7% 3%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 100% Majority
77 0% 99.8%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 1.3% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 98%  
81 0.9% 98%  
82 93% 97% Median
83 0.8% 5%  
84 1.2% 4%  
85 0.8% 3%  
86 1.3% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.6% 100%  
72 0.7% 99.4%  
73 0.1% 98.7%  
74 0.4% 98.6%  
75 0.3% 98%  
76 0.7% 98% Last Result, Majority
77 0.3% 97%  
78 94% 97% Median
79 2% 3%  
80 0.3% 1.1%  
81 0.5% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 1.1% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 98.7%  
73 1.3% 98%  
74 0.7% 97%  
75 92% 96% Median
76 0.2% 4% Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 0.8% 1.1%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.2% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.5% 100%  
68 0% 99.5%  
69 0.2% 99.4%  
70 0.2% 99.3%  
71 0.1% 99.1%  
72 3% 99.0%  
73 91% 96% Median
74 1.0% 4%  
75 1.2% 3%  
76 0.8% 2% Majority
77 0.1% 1.3%  
78 1.0% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.5% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.4%  
69 0.1% 99.3%  
70 0.1% 99.1%  
71 1.4% 99.1%  
72 93% 98% Median
73 1.0% 4%  
74 0.9% 3%  
75 0.7% 3%  
76 0.6% 2% Majority
77 1.0% 1.3%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.4%  
67 0.2% 98.6%  
68 0.7% 98%  
69 0.6% 98%  
70 1.2% 97%  
71 0.4% 96% Last Result
72 93% 96% Median
73 2% 3%  
74 0.6% 0.9%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.6% 100%  
65 0% 99.4%  
66 0.1% 99.4%  
67 0.1% 99.3%  
68 0.1% 99.2%  
69 0.4% 99.1%  
70 92% 98.8% Median
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.2% 1.2%  
75 0.9% 1.0%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 1.5% 100%  
68 0% 98%  
69 0.7% 98%  
70 91% 98% Median
71 2% 6%  
72 3% 5% Last Result
73 0.3% 1.4%  
74 0.5% 1.1%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.4% Majority
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.5% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.5%  
66 0% 99.2%  
67 0.7% 99.2%  
68 1.2% 98.5%  
69 2% 97%  
70 91% 96% Median
71 2% 4%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 0.4% 2%  
74 0.1% 1.2%  
75 1.1% 1.2%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.7% 100%  
65 0% 99.3%  
66 0.7% 99.2%  
67 0.9% 98.5%  
68 0.5% 98%  
69 93% 97% Median
70 1.4% 4%  
71 0.5% 3%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.1% 1.3%  
74 0.9% 1.2%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9% Last Result
62 0.6% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.3%  
64 1.3% 99.1%  
65 0.2% 98%  
66 1.1% 97%  
67 0.3% 96%  
68 2% 96%  
69 92% 94% Median
70 2% 2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.8%  
62 0.8% 98.9%  
63 0.5% 98%  
64 0.9% 97%  
65 92% 97% Median
66 2% 4% Last Result
67 2% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.6% 100% Last Result
53 0.1% 99.4%  
54 0.6% 99.4%  
55 1.0% 98.8%  
56 0.4% 98%  
57 91% 97% Median
58 2% 6%  
59 4% 5%  
60 0.2% 1.0%  
61 0.3% 0.9%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 0% 99.3%  
51 0.2% 99.2%  
52 1.1% 99.1%  
53 0.4% 98%  
54 94% 98% Median
55 1.3% 4%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.0%  
42 1.3% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 92% 94% Median
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.7% 1.3%  
47 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.6% 100% Last Result
34 1.0% 99.4%  
35 93% 98% Median
36 0.3% 5%  
37 1.1% 5%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 1.1% 99.3% Last Result
29 93% 98% Median
30 2% 5%  
31 0.9% 4%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.5% 1.0%  
34 0.3% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 1.1% 99.9%  
28 2% 98.8%  
29 0.7% 97%  
30 2% 96%  
31 94% 94% Median
32 0.6% 1.0%  
33 0.1% 0.4%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations